Thursday, January 11, 2007

The Steroid Shuffle



How do we make sense of the steroid effect on baseball? Well, the HOF voters have apparently spoken volumes by shunning Mark McGuire. The message is that even without proof the mere appearance of involvement with steroids will keep you out of the Hall.

That’s at first glance however. McGuire has a career .263 BA with only 1,626 hits. It’s his gaudy HR’s (583) that give him consideration for the Hall. Should residing in the top ten HR hitters of all time automatically get you in? You could make a case that he shouldn’t get in. This same argument will be coming for Sosa and Palmeiro soon.

If you ask a number of sportswriters (HOF voters) why they didn’t vote for McGuire, guarantee that this first year is “punishment” for his performance in front of Congress. Instead of giving the guy some credit for trying to do the right thing (and not incriminate himself), they punished him. Remember too that there is no proof, only speculation.

That being said, it’s fairly obvious he had some “help” in the form of steroids and performance enhancing drugs. The argument is when and how much did it help. We’ll never know the answer to those questions. He did hit 49 HR’s in his first full season back in 1987, but his real power surge was between 1996 thru 1999. You can make an educated guess about his stats, but what do you do with them?

How do we view the rest of the players in the steroid era (which will be how the 90’s and early 2000’s will be named)? Isn’t it reasonable to assume that pitchers had the same advantage? By all accounts, more than 50% of players were using some type of enhancement during this stretch. You hate to give Canseco any type of credit, but it appears he was dead on in his book. There was never any punishment while coaches, management, and MLB all turned a blind eye. In that type of environment where performance equals dollars it’s a wonder most athletes weren’t using. While it certainly is not a valid excuse, this was the world they were living in. The ultimate question is how to quantify stats and achievements from this era. If a pitcher and batter are both using, does that negate the effect? So even if you were able to narrow down the who and when it’s still a baffling dilemma.

The Hall Effect…

The HOF voters are an odd bunch. Each has his own view of what is proper and what characteristics have more weight than others. Some change their minds about voting for the same player. There are no standards or criteria, but there are biases and personality conflicts that get in the way. It’s all subjective. Players who were downright nasty to reporters (and everyone else) also seem to get penalized. How else would you explain Albert Belle only getting less than 20% of the vote, while a player like Jim Rice (similar #’s with 500 more at bats) get over 60%? Now that the steroid era has been “exposed” do we now hold players before this era to the higher standard of stats within it? Do we discount the stats from the players from this era?

The good aspect is that players will be judged on an individual basis. Don’t expect the “steroid blanket” to affect all players in the same way. You’d hope that Palmeiro would be treated more harshly than others. He lied to Congress and threw a teammate under the bus after testing positive. Giambi admitted to taking them to a grand jury. Sheffield and Bonds both used the “I didn’t know what I was taking” defense. Bonds also tested positive for amphetamines in 2006 and said he got them from a teammate’s locker. See a pattern here?

By the way, did you miss the whole “players only get reported for a second amphetamines fail” thing?

Pete Rose bet on baseball, but he didn’t cheat. Why is that worse? Anyone testing positive for steroids or enhancers should also be banned from the Hall, no? How about failing the test twice and you’re out? Now that’s a good deterrent and satisfies the “false positive” crap.

Where does this leave us?

Unfortunately in a precarious position. As with many MLB awards there are inherent flaws and therefore snubs. Now we’ve been thrown the steroid curveball to further muddy the waters.

We can’t control any of it which is the most frustrating part. We are at the mercy of the bitter, jaded, cynical, overbearing, and homers called sportswriters. At least that’s what they are when things don’t fit our viewpoint. That will never change, and neither will the current system.

The only question is whether anyone associated with steroids will ever get into the Hall. Will the most prolific HR hitter ever not get in? A few in the top ten? We’ll see. Let’s just hope karma has a hand in it.

Friday, January 05, 2007

The Yanks drop their Unit...



The Randy Johnson era has apparently ended in NY. While his trade request was never “official” it’s clear that he wanted out of the spotlight of NY and back to the seclusion of Arizona and the weak NL lineups.

It’s a great move for the Unit. At 44 and coming off another surgery, the spirit may be willing but the body isn’t listening. He should have a good year against the NL and the climate in Arizona certainly won’t hurt especially in April and May. His numbers will certainly improve over 2006 if he stays somewhat healthy.

But is this a good move for the Yanks? With no viable replacement it’s a big NO. This is the second starter they’ve dealt in a very thin market. While they may have received some value in minor league prospects, they still traded away 2 proven arms for unproven commodities.

Are the Yanks in a mini rebuilding stage? It appears so because these deals don’t make sense in the short term. Did they not learn anything from the Sox trading Arroyo last season? At least the Sox appeared to have an “abundance” of pitching at the time.

The Yanks have 3 solid starters they can count on barring any injuries. Kei Igawa is still a question mark but should end up as a stable number 4 or 5 guy. They can’t be seriously considering getting much out of Pavano. That leaves Philip Hughes being rushed out of the minors. They don’t have an ace. Not much of a game plan. The Yanks must already have a tentative agreement with Clemens. That would explain some things. However, he probably won’t pitch until mid June. That also puts a ton of pressure on Mussina, Pettitte, and Wang to perform above expectations.


Risky Business:

So what’s the plan? Survive until June and count on their offense to carry them. With a new stockpile of minor league talent, they have leverage at the trade deadline. But who is going to trade a top of the line starter? At best you’ll find a fringe #3 guy and that doesn’t push you over the top.

Questions, questions…

Wang – should be fine, putting up similar numbers to last season
Mussina – he’s older and his numbers certainly won’t be better
Pettitte – don’t expect improvement over NL era of 4.20
Igawa – pray that you didn’t get Irabu revisited
Pavano – how much can you expect from a guy who hasn’t pitched in 2 years?
Clemens – are 20 games better than 30 from the Unit? Will he even pitch?
Hughes – will he be rushed? How effective will he be?

That’s just plain ugly. They’re also counting on no injuries. On paper, the bullpen is much improved but how effective will they be if they are overworked?

The Yanks will certainly be competitive in 2007, but will it be too late? Their offense needs to be prolific once again. Unless something drastic changes, they’ll be good but fall short. Expect to be in the rear view mirror for the season…