Tuesday, November 28, 2006

To trade Manny, or not to trade Manny...

Well the Manny gate rumors have reared their ugly head once again. With the recent outlandish free agent signing $'s, Manny's contract is now seen as a bargain. That's scary. His contract has seemingly been the albatross in striking any trade deals, even as recent as last season. What a difference a year makes. MLB insiders also seem to think this trend of spending will continue in the near future making his contract #'s even more tradeable.

The debate of whether to keep him or trade him will rage on. It's been rumored that he made be traded as early as Saturday (when they will supposedly sign JD Drew).

Why Should they trade Manny?

1) His flighty attitude.
2) He seemingly quit on his teammates at the end of last season.
3) He's become such a distraction that he affects team chemistry.
4) The Manny being Manny episodes are not a matter of if, but when.
5) His production may start to slip in the next couple of seasons.
6) His trade value may not ever be higher, and a younger viable option is available.

Why should they keep him?

1) You can't replace his production or talent for hitting (Andruw Jones is not the same threat or producer).
2) David Ortiz's walks will increase and his production will decrease. You're losing the equivalent of 1.25 players.
3) You won't get equal value in return, and teams (like the Dodgers) are claiming the pricetag is too high.
4) He's a 10-5 guy and can veto any trade - should they expend time & energy in the first place? He may require additional terms (exercise option & possible extension years) before waiving his no-trade. He also may just change his mind about it daily.
5) Just to piss off local sports writers like Shaughnessy.

The question is, does management think his antics outweigh his production. It's clear his teammates were frustrated with him at the end of last season, but to the point they don't want him back? We'll never really know. The only measuring stick will be what kind of deal they pull off. If he isn't traded, that most likely means they weren't willing to part with him for less than full value, and he's not the "cancer" some portray him to be.

Sportwriters like Shaughnessy don't like Manny, so when reading their articles bear that in mind. Manny doesn't speak to the media so there is no dispute or point of view to what's written either. Shaughnessy would have you believe Manny doesn't want to be here (another season of trade rumors), he gave up on his teammates and he gave up on YOU, the fan. What a load of crap. It makes for a good article in November, but do you really buy it? What he's actually doing is making it easier for the Sox brass to unload him for less than fair value - in the eyes of the fan.

There is only 1 consideration here if you're Theo. Will Manny's antics disrupt the clubhouse to the point of derailing the team? Will his "phantom" injuries return at a critical point of the season?

A) If no, then keep him unless you're blown away by an offer. His option year is also now a bargain.
B) If yes, how much under fair value are you willing to take?

From a fan's perspective, do you really care about the Manny being Manny episodes? It's not like you work with the guy directly. You're not paying his salary. What it really comes down to is his production and ability to help the team win. You may only get 140 games out of him, but at the end of the day is there a better option?


Unless they get some stud pitching in return, they're nuts if they trade him. That's two more seasons of Manny coming your way...

Monday, November 20, 2006

Hot Stove - The Rotation...

Scary, but it’s that time already. The Sox have more holes to fill this offseason than they’ve had in a while. Payroll sits around $100M right now, and the new luxury tax number has risen to $148M. Where will they fit in? It’s probably safe to assume $20M will go towards starting pitching. Let’s delve right in to what the Sox are looking at:

Starters:

1) Beckett
2) Schilling
3) Papelbon
4) Wake
5) ???

Not such a bad rotation as it stands. It’s probably good enough to get to the playoffs by adding a solid #5. Let’s also assume that Lester doesn’t help in 2007. Also remember that Schill posted the best Sox starters ERA last season which was just under 4…

Potentials:

Daisuke Matsuzaka – the prize of the free agents. Only 26, his 17-5 record, 2.13 ERA, and 200K in 186 IP is impressive. Even though the Sox won the bidding, they still need to negotiate length & dollars per season.

Impact: Hasn’t done it with MLB players yet, but all the scouts think he’s the real deal.
Cost: $51M (doesn’t affect payroll #’s). Boras reportedly asking $16M per year.
Analysis: Best option. Don’t give up any prospects, open new revenue stream overseas, and keep away from competition - especially Yanks. $51M doesn’t count against the cap…


Adam Eaton – 28, injured during spring training (surgery on finger), didn’t pitch until July. Went 7-4 with a 5.12 ERA, after spending 6 seasons with the Padres.

Impact: End of rotation guy, NL ERA of low 4’s.
Cost: $4.7 last year, could be a “cheap” option at $6M - $7M
Analysis: Only 28, but the transition to the AL coupled with a finger injury inflated his ERA. He’s also never pitched 200 innings, or won more than 11 games. Apparently Theo has met with him already. Not sure what he sees here. Don’t we have a similar guy on the farm already?


Gil Meche – 28, was 11-8, 4.48 Era with Seattle. With a thin market, his $3.7M salary should at least double.

Impact: Middle of rotation guy, can lock up for a few years. Schill will be gone in 08, might fit in nicely behind Beckett, Papelbon, and Lester.
Cost: $8M+
Analysis: He’s been pitching in the AL so no “adjustment” will happen. Downside – never pitched 200 innings, only won 15 games once. Only a 4 or 5 guy at best. He’s still young and may be the only “bargain” out there.


Vincente Padilla – 29, was 15-10, 4.50 ERA with Texas, career 4.06 ERA. Reportedly looking for $10M per season. Made the transition back to AL improving on his 4.71 from Philly. Appears to have overcome injuries in 2004 & 2005.

Impact: Could be a solid # 3. There aren’t many 15 game winners that fall out of the sky, especially within the AL.
Cost: $10M+
Analysis: May become too expensive after bidding starts. How much do you want to pay for a #3? See: Matt Clement…





National League


Tom Glavine – is a homecoming in the cards? He’s reportedly torn between the Mets and Braves. His 15-7 record went along with 3.82 ERA. At 40, it makes little sense for him to switch to the AL. He’ll probably cost around $11- $12M.

Woody Williams – went 12-5 with a 3.65 era in 145 innings. At 40, he’s had a steady decline in innings every season since 2003. Might be a good option in the pen however.

Mark Mulder – had season ending surgery (rotator cuff), this guy may have lost it, but has still been mentioned in rumors… Went 6-7 with a 7+ ERA with the Cards. Yikes.


Longshot Department

Roger Clemens – were you tired of the back and forth stories last season? Well, hang on because here they come again. He’s the master at extracting the most dollars he can. Houston has probably had its fill, but he’ll pit the Sox vs. Yanks, with the Rangers a distant third once again. Odds are he’d join the Sox, but at a price the Sox would pay? His NL numbers will certainly jump. Is he a legit #2 in the AL now? Remember too that he broke down only playing a few months.

Jason Schmidt – at 33, he’s not any getting better especially if he switches to the AL. Someone will overpay to the tune of $13- $14M. Probably Houston because they just unloaded a ton of payroll.

Barry Zito – at 28, he’s proven to be durable. His ERA of 3.83 is probably close to what you can expect going forward. A true #1 in the NL, he’s not in the AL. Do you start him in a decisive playoff game? Although he was top 10 in ERA, he’s not a top 10 pitcher. But, he’ll get paid like he is, similar to the $13 - $14M of Schmidt. A left handed flyball pitcher at Fenway spells disaster. Mets are probably the best fit.

Jake Peavy – only 25, he dominated the prior 2 seasons. His ERA ballooned to over 4 from a sub 3 last season. He did have a good Sept with a 2.43 ERA, but did not perform well in the playoffs. This rumor popped up last season, but why would SD part with a 25 year old starter? Who do the Sox give up? Don’t hold your breath…

Ted Lilly – 30, this Sox killer will be commanding big dollars ($11-$12M?). His 4.31 era was in the top 20 in the AL. Someone will overpay, but not the Sox. He’s probably a fringe 3 guy at best. Still, rumors persist that Theo is interested…


In the Clubhouse / On the farm…

Jon Lester – let’s just hope this kid is OK. Treatment and recovery is 6-8 months (Feb – Apr timeframe). That’s when we find out just if he’s healthy or not. He’ll be unable to even eat properly or train until then. Even if he does pitch in 07, he probably won’t be back at his 2006 form.

Julian Tavares – pitched very well in the rotation going 3-0 in his last 5 starts, giving up more than 2 runs (3 & 4) only in two of his starts. He’ll probably start in the pen and be a backup plan for the rotation.

Hansack/Gabbard/Alvarez/Pauley/Snyder/J. Johnson/DiNardo – hopefully someone from this heap will have a great spring. Some of these guys showed some poise after being thrown in the fire. Their best bet is that someone will stand out by June.


Coming next, The Pen…

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Matsuzaka Mania Baby! The hot stove is heated!


The Sox pull off step 1 in the Matsuzaka sweepstakes. The sweeps ticket cost somewhere between $42M - $50M+ depending on who you believe. The Seibu Lions will probably won't be tight lipped about their windfall, so we'll know soon.

The Sox now need to clear the Scott Boras hurdle, which apparently is set somewhere around $14M per season. At 26, you'd think the Sox would want to lock him up for at least 4 seasons. On the other hand if he's not a top of the rotation talent, how many years do you risk to overpay?

This is a bold move by the Sox and it accomplishes a number of important tasks:

1) They get a potential #1 guy at 26 - unheard of especially these days
2) Don't give up any young talent to get him
3) Keep him away from rivals - especially the Yanks
4) The $42M+ does not impact payroll, and the Sox must feel they can "recover" the investment from the overseas market (TV rights, media, merchandise)

Will he be a success? Based on his numbers, the scouting reports, and the number of teams throwing money around, the safe bet is yes.

Couple of quick hits...

The gyro ball is fictional. When asked during the WBC, Matsuzaka laughed and said he'd work on one.

Apparently the best players in Japan are obsessed over, and the fan base is 10 times as rabid as we are here. So those of you worried about the pressure at Fenway, can rest easy.

And be friendly to the influx of Japanse tourists about to roll in. Sushi coming to Fenway?

Stay tuned for more hot stove updates...

Friday, November 03, 2006

Gold Glove? More like aluminium foil...

By definition, the Gold Glove Award honors the top fielders at each position in each league. Since 1965, managers and coaches have decided the winners.

Well, they suck at it. This process is exactly like all-star voting. Players get awarded more for their star power, not performance.

How are coaches evaluating these guys? By the look of things, probably not by defensive stats...

For a closer look, here are 5 main stats used to evaluate defensive prowess:

1) Fielding percentage - the higher the #, the less mistakes you make
2) Errors - self explanatory
3) Total Chances - # of opportunities to field the ball
4) Range factor - how many balls you can get to
5) Zone rating - % of balls fielded in their "zone" (no idea...)

A reasonable person would evaluate the first 3, because who the hell knows what 4 & 5 really are. The other one not listed is the "eyeball test". You know by watching a player how good they really are. But it's also no secret who can get to a ball and who can't. Players who have less errors because they lost a step and can't reach a ball up the gap shouldn't be rewarded. There are some subjective areas, but lets be honest, it's a popularity contest.

In a perfect world you would start with your eyeballs, and then look at the stats. Unless a player is on your team, you don't see him play every day. The eyeball test only goes so far.

Lets take a look at some of the more glaring examples out there in the AL...


Pitcher:

Kenny Rogers takes it home this year. He had 5 errors in the regular season. There were 30+ pitchers who had less errors, with 11 of those recording "zero" errors. So, 11 guys who were essentially perfect got passed by with someone who made 5 errors. Maybe the makers of pine tar have a lobbyist...

Shortstop:

Derek Jeter is a great player, maybe even one of the best ever. But his best fielding days went bye bye a while ago. Take a peek at his stats and those he beat out:

D. Jeter: .975 FPC, 14 E, 610 TC
A. Gonzalez: .985 FPC, 7E, 475 TC
M. Young: .981 FPC, 14E, 747 TC
J. Uribe: .977 FPC, 14E, 604 TC

Outfield:

The same trio has now won the award the past 3 seasons. Here are some of the top performers (before we get to the winners):

C. Granderson: .997 FPC, 1 E, 389 TC
M. Cabrera: .996 FPC, 1 E, 230 TC
B. Anderson: .994 FPC, 2 E, 310 TC
R. Ibanez: .994 FPC, 2 E, 314 TC
M. Kotsay: .993 FPC, 2 E, 289 TC
C. Crawford: .990 FPC, 3 E, 314 TC

And your winners...

I. Suzuki: .992 FPC, 2 E, 260 TC
T. Hunter: .989 FPC, 4 E, 355 TC
V. Wells: .988 FPC, 4 E, 340 TC

Other Infielders:

The results are fairly close, but NONE of these winners were better in more than ONE of the statistical categories. You could make a clear case that someone else was better.

The one award that does make sense goes to I-Rod. He is not only better but superior in almost every major category. Throwing out a runner more than 50% of the time is amazing. So, you can feel warm and cozy about one of them.

What to do, what to do...

Do we continue to bitch about these awards every year? Do we let it continue? Does it really matter?

If there are those of you really tired and fet up with this, get out your pens and fire up your emails. Contact Rawlings (the sponsor) and MLB (coaches who vote).

Executive Office
Rawlings Sporting Goods Co., Inc.
P.O. Box 22000
St. Louis, MO 63126

Major League Baseball Advanced Media, LP.
75 Ninth Avenue
New York, NY 10011
212-485-3444