Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Yanks continue shameless spending spree, land Teixeira



All aboard the Yankee hating express...

"The Yankees do not want to compete, they want to be coronated." That quote by Wallace Mattews of Newsday sums it up nicely. You would think that the Steinbrenners adopted Varuca Salt. I want an Umpaloompa NOW!

This move was predicted in the last entry back on Dec 15th. It just made sense for them to do this. That being said, to spend over $420M in the current economy is simply disgusting. The sad part is that they aren't finished. After grabbing the top 3 available free agents, they will still add another starting pitcher and more. They have more revenue ($100M from new stadium alone) and a payroll that is still less than last year. They obviously have complete disregard for anyone else, so why would they stop now?

Granted they have improved their team significantly, but this in no way guarantees them anything. If nothing else you would think they have learned that in this new century. The huge advantage in payroll has not worked. Cashman has not been able to grow the farm system, so they have gone back to overspending. Ask last years Tigers how that worked out.

The reports about the Sox being surprised are simply nonsense. The Yankees have used this same tactic with Jose Contreras, A-Rod, and Damon. How'd that work out for ya by the way? The Sox did not have to make this move. It would have made them better yes, but they set a price and didn't go past it. If they were really "desperate", you don't think they would have ponied up another $12M over 8 years? They would still be way under their payroll number from last season.

The offseason has a long way to go. The Yanks will add more pieces. But it will be much more entertaining when they come up short again. Just like the A-Rod signing and defeat in the ALCS. Sweet.

Monday, December 15, 2008

Is Cashman a drunken sailor?


It’s official. Money has now become no object in Steinbrennerland.

If AJ Burnett had been a consistent top of the rotation guy, then this would be a reasonable deal. But it’s a matter of when this guy breaks down, not if.

If you hadn’t noticed, this is eerily similar to the Pavano deal, but with two additional seasons attached. Pavano had a great year for the Marlins going 18-8 with a 3.00 ERA, by far his best season ever before coming to NY. He was often injured and only managed to win more than 12 games once in his 9 year career. He only managed to pitch more than 200 innings twice in that span as well.

The good news is that Burnett has been better. But only marginally. He’s taken nine trips to the DL in his 10 seasons. NINE. He’s pitched more than 200 innings in only three seasons, two of which were contract years, which tells you something. He’s also only won more than 12 games once in his career. He had arguably one of his best seasons ever last year, but still managed only an ERA over 4.

But getting to brass tacks, he is a good pitcher (not great) when he’s healthy. However, his health is the x-factor. The Yanks know that they are not going to get full value from this guy. Nor does he have any postseason experience to draw on. And based on his history, he’s not going to get stronger or less injury prone at age 32. They probably think he’ll average between 20-25 starts per season with a 3.75 ERA which is optimistic at best. Fact is, he may not last into years 4 or 5 of the contract anyway.

Because the Yanks have the money, this isn’t much of a gamble. Assuming they sign a Lowe, Pettite, or Sheets, they still have Hughes and Kennedy waiting in the minors to fill in when needed. But they need that depth to further insure Wang and Chamberlain. That gives the Yanks a formidable rotation and makes them a viable contender. If they have enough depth to cover injuries, they’ll be in the mix in Oct.

Up next is the probable trade for Mike Cameron. Once consummated, that brings the Yanks 2009 payroll into the neighborhood of $175M. They’ll add another arm (Lowe/Sheets/Pettite) for let’s say $15M, bringing them up to $190M.

Many baseball executives feel that the Yanks spending is simply irresponsible, especially in light of the current economic conditions. Some writers think that there is nothing wrong with these expenditures because their payroll will be lower than last season. First of all, let’s put things into some perspective…

There is no salary cap in baseball, and the luxury tax is not having the desired affect. Until the rules are changed, the Yankees are allowed to spend whatever they like. If you don’t like it, change the rules. The Yankees are taking full advantage of the economic conditions because they can. They now have $100M more in revenue per season to draw from, due to the new stadium. Smaller market teams have to worry about filling seats while the Yanks are exponentially increasing the gap between the “haves and have nots”. Is it completely unfair? To most of the league, absolutely. But, all the blame goes to MLB for letting it happen.

On the other side of the coin, the Yanks should not be applauded for lowering their payroll. Why would you give credit for having $85M in bad contracts come off the books, but then adding $65M in bad contracts back in? Yup, that’s right, we mismanaged $20M less than last season…

Lastly, what is stopping the Yanks from grabbing Texiera? Nick Swisher is a nice player for $3.6M, but he hit a whopping .219 last season. There have been rumors of Manny in pinstripes, but he’s going to cost over $20M per. I guess you could platoon him with Damon and Matsui in LF / DH. But you’d probably only pay a few million more per season for Texiera. If you’re going to spend $210M with Manny, why not spend $215 with Tex? It’s still less than they spent in 2007, but now with more revenue. You have a place for him at 1B. It’s a no brainer isn’t it?

Let's hope not. Gee, still wonder why no one likes the Yankees?

Friday, December 12, 2008

Yanks land the offseason Whale…

All 290 pounds of him… The desperate Yanks became bidders against only themselves and raised their original bid from $140M to $161M to land their new ace Sabathia.

Let’s not pretend that this was not a good signing for them, it was. It simply makes them a better team. However, if you put value into the argument it’s clearly not. He’s not even the best pitcher in New York but he’s the highest paid. It now makes the Mets signing of Santana a great deal and even more baffling why the Yanks didn’t get involved.

There are some red flags with this deal. Rumblings were that CC was looking for a reason NOT to pitch in NY. He clearly preferred the West coast, but the Yanks made him an offer he couldn’t refuse – an additional $21M on top of the original $140M that no one else had matched. He’s also getting them to include a player option after 3yrs, and also a no trade clause. So, he can bail out of NY after 3 seasons and also block any potential trades. Handing over that much control to a player simply shows how desperate the Yanks were to sign him.

More Starters?
This is only step one in the Yanks buying process. Sabathia will essentially replace the season the now departed Mussina had. They now have their staff ace but still have several question marks throughout the rotation. Wang & Chamberlain have been injury issues, while Hughes and Kennedy have essentially been no shows. They still need to acquire more starters.

The latest rumor is AJ Burnett for 5yrs and $85M. Talk about desperation. He’s 31 and has only thrown 200 innings in three of his ten seasons. And two of them have been in contract years. Since joining the AL, his best ERA was 3.75. What’s his arm going to be like at age 36? He’s a good pitcher (not great) when he does show up. But will he be another Pavano?

They are also in the mix for Derek Lowe. He had a terrific season with a 3.24 Era. But at age 35 and return to the AL you can expect that to jump significantly. For a guy that had “late night” issues I’m guessing Manhattan isn’t the best environment. Issues aside, he’s probably a better option than Burnett. But you’d still expect diminishing returns on a 39yr old arm.

Position Players?
The Yanks are rumored to be going after Mike Cameron (buddy of Sabathia). He’s certainly an upgrade of the fading Melky Cabrera, but he’s 35. He’ll probably give them .250 / 20 / 75 which is only marginal. It will cost them Cabrera AND a minor league arm.

They have been quiet on the Texiera front, but you’d think they would be all out on this one. It wouldn’t be a shock for them to swoop in at the last minute. They overpay for everything else, so why not. Even if they acquire Burnett & Lowe, they can still fit his $20+M in the mix. What’s a $230M payroll with a new revenue driving ballpark? Why wouldn’t they jump at a chance to overpay a player who will be on the decline in the last 2-3yrs of their contract? It’s standard operating procedure.

Haven’t they learned anything?
With all of these top flight signings (Type A free agents), they continue to surrender first round draft picks. Trading for a 35yr old Mike Cameron? AJ Burnett will be 36 when his contract is up, and CC will be 35. They are trying to win in “the now” and bastardizing the future again. The reason they were so successful in the 90’s is because they had a great core of players come up thru their system. All they needed to do was add a few pieces via free agency. You can't rebuild your system without first round picks. Most current players on the team are past their prime. Here are the impact players at 30 or under: Cano, Nady, Swisher (or replace w/Texiera who would be 38 at the end), and Cabrera who is about to be traded for a 35yr old. The clock is ticking and the window is closing, especially with Tampa Bay now as a factor.

Is it irresponsible?
The Marlin’s President seems to think the CC contract alone was inappropriate & irresponsible based on the current economic climate. He has a clear bias as a small market team, but he does bring up an interesting point. Are the Yanks unaffected by the current economic conditions? Reports say that the new ballpark will generate an additional $100M per year. So yes, the Yanks are not affected. Whether it is inappropriate or not depends on your point of view. The Yanks don’t care either way, as they are doing what they feel is best for business. Any small market team will tell you it is irresponsible and always unfair. Is it time for a change? Possibly. The luxury tax seemed to have no affect. But that’s a discussion for another day…