Hot Stove - The Rotation...

Scary, but it’s that time already. The Sox have more holes to fill this offseason than they’ve had in a while. Payroll sits around $100M right now, and the new luxury tax number has risen to $148M. Where will they fit in? It’s probably safe to assume $20M will go towards starting pitching. Let’s delve right in to what the Sox are looking at:

Starters:

1) Beckett
2) Schilling
3) Papelbon
4) Wake
5) ???

Not such a bad rotation as it stands. It’s probably good enough to get to the playoffs by adding a solid #5. Let’s also assume that Lester doesn’t help in 2007. Also remember that Schill posted the best Sox starters ERA last season which was just under 4…

Potentials:

Daisuke Matsuzaka – the prize of the free agents. Only 26, his 17-5 record, 2.13 ERA, and 200K in 186 IP is impressive. Even though the Sox won the bidding, they still need to negotiate length & dollars per season.

Impact: Hasn’t done it with MLB players yet, but all the scouts think he’s the real deal.
Cost: $51M (doesn’t affect payroll #’s). Boras reportedly asking $16M per year.
Analysis: Best option. Don’t give up any prospects, open new revenue stream overseas, and keep away from competition - especially Yanks. $51M doesn’t count against the cap…


Adam Eaton – 28, injured during spring training (surgery on finger), didn’t pitch until July. Went 7-4 with a 5.12 ERA, after spending 6 seasons with the Padres.

Impact: End of rotation guy, NL ERA of low 4’s.
Cost: $4.7 last year, could be a “cheap” option at $6M - $7M
Analysis: Only 28, but the transition to the AL coupled with a finger injury inflated his ERA. He’s also never pitched 200 innings, or won more than 11 games. Apparently Theo has met with him already. Not sure what he sees here. Don’t we have a similar guy on the farm already?


Gil Meche – 28, was 11-8, 4.48 Era with Seattle. With a thin market, his $3.7M salary should at least double.

Impact: Middle of rotation guy, can lock up for a few years. Schill will be gone in 08, might fit in nicely behind Beckett, Papelbon, and Lester.
Cost: $8M+
Analysis: He’s been pitching in the AL so no “adjustment” will happen. Downside – never pitched 200 innings, only won 15 games once. Only a 4 or 5 guy at best. He’s still young and may be the only “bargain” out there.


Vincente Padilla – 29, was 15-10, 4.50 ERA with Texas, career 4.06 ERA. Reportedly looking for $10M per season. Made the transition back to AL improving on his 4.71 from Philly. Appears to have overcome injuries in 2004 & 2005.

Impact: Could be a solid # 3. There aren’t many 15 game winners that fall out of the sky, especially within the AL.
Cost: $10M+
Analysis: May become too expensive after bidding starts. How much do you want to pay for a #3? See: Matt Clement…





National League


Tom Glavine – is a homecoming in the cards? He’s reportedly torn between the Mets and Braves. His 15-7 record went along with 3.82 ERA. At 40, it makes little sense for him to switch to the AL. He’ll probably cost around $11- $12M.

Woody Williams – went 12-5 with a 3.65 era in 145 innings. At 40, he’s had a steady decline in innings every season since 2003. Might be a good option in the pen however.

Mark Mulder – had season ending surgery (rotator cuff), this guy may have lost it, but has still been mentioned in rumors… Went 6-7 with a 7+ ERA with the Cards. Yikes.


Longshot Department

Roger Clemens – were you tired of the back and forth stories last season? Well, hang on because here they come again. He’s the master at extracting the most dollars he can. Houston has probably had its fill, but he’ll pit the Sox vs. Yanks, with the Rangers a distant third once again. Odds are he’d join the Sox, but at a price the Sox would pay? His NL numbers will certainly jump. Is he a legit #2 in the AL now? Remember too that he broke down only playing a few months.

Jason Schmidt – at 33, he’s not any getting better especially if he switches to the AL. Someone will overpay to the tune of $13- $14M. Probably Houston because they just unloaded a ton of payroll.

Barry Zito – at 28, he’s proven to be durable. His ERA of 3.83 is probably close to what you can expect going forward. A true #1 in the NL, he’s not in the AL. Do you start him in a decisive playoff game? Although he was top 10 in ERA, he’s not a top 10 pitcher. But, he’ll get paid like he is, similar to the $13 - $14M of Schmidt. A left handed flyball pitcher at Fenway spells disaster. Mets are probably the best fit.

Jake Peavy – only 25, he dominated the prior 2 seasons. His ERA ballooned to over 4 from a sub 3 last season. He did have a good Sept with a 2.43 ERA, but did not perform well in the playoffs. This rumor popped up last season, but why would SD part with a 25 year old starter? Who do the Sox give up? Don’t hold your breath…

Ted Lilly – 30, this Sox killer will be commanding big dollars ($11-$12M?). His 4.31 era was in the top 20 in the AL. Someone will overpay, but not the Sox. He’s probably a fringe 3 guy at best. Still, rumors persist that Theo is interested…


In the Clubhouse / On the farm…

Jon Lester – let’s just hope this kid is OK. Treatment and recovery is 6-8 months (Feb – Apr timeframe). That’s when we find out just if he’s healthy or not. He’ll be unable to even eat properly or train until then. Even if he does pitch in 07, he probably won’t be back at his 2006 form.

Julian Tavares – pitched very well in the rotation going 3-0 in his last 5 starts, giving up more than 2 runs (3 & 4) only in two of his starts. He’ll probably start in the pen and be a backup plan for the rotation.

Hansack/Gabbard/Alvarez/Pauley/Snyder/J. Johnson/DiNardo – hopefully someone from this heap will have a great spring. Some of these guys showed some poise after being thrown in the fire. Their best bet is that someone will stand out by June.


Coming next, The Pen…