Yanks are wondering where their rotation has gone…

Not that they had one of the better rotations coming in on paper, but a recent string of “setbacks” (not “injuries”) have pushed them to the back of the pack. With only a week before the season starts, panic is starting to creep in. While they have vast resources, they don’t have depth. And according to Cashman, “We are going to go with what we have”. If you are a Yankee fan, how are you not VERY concerned?

Your opening day starter is Carl Pavano (insert punchline here). Your best starter in Wang is out at least 3 weeks of April, and his replacement Karstens just hurt his elbow during a game and will be out “for a time”. Pettite has had back spasms, and Darrell Rasner (who?) is your new 5th starter.

The only known quantity you have is in Mussina. But he’s another year older at 39, with a history of injuries. So, you’re counting on Pavano (hee hee), Pettite (already hurt with back spasms & just switched back to the grind of the AL), Igawa who’s never pitched in the majors – or bright spotlight, and Rasner (an unproven rookie).

Granted the Yanks won’t need a #5 starter for the first couple of weeks, but who would you stack them against? More like who has a worse rotation…

Notes & Projections / Stats
Mussina: Career year at 38, numbers to be worse in 2007: 14-8, 4.50 Era

Pettite: Switch to AL, last yr stats 14-13, 4.20 Era: 12-14, 4.95 Era

Igawa: Never pitched in majors, not highly touted: 10-12, 5.35 Era

Wang: Hamstring changes everything, numbers worse: 16-10, 4.25 Era

Pavano: Hasn’t pitched in 21 months, ugly spring: 5-8, 5.60 Era

Karstens: And/or Rasner – similar unproven soph status: 6-7, 5.25 Era

Hughes: May see the phenom too early if Yanks fall back: 7-5, 4.50 Era


That is not a scary lineup no matter how you slice it. Unless they all pitch well, the Yanks may be looking up at the Jays and the Sox. That's right Yanks fans, it's already time to get out your Clemens shrines & start praying. It's your only shot...

Papelbon to Pen creates questions...

OK. Lets hope your Sox have something up their sleeve. At first glance, you get one of the top closers in the game and really shore up the pen. However, you create another important need and raise all sorts of questions…

#1) Who fills that gaping hole in the rotation? Papelbon was a potential 1a or 2 guy. Now you replace that level with a #5 starter like Snyder or Piniero? You just weakened arguably the best rotation in the majors. How dominating would Papelbon have been against the rest of the league’s #4 guys? Ouch.

#2) What happened to the medical diagnosis of better health if he’s moved to the rotation? Did something magically happen? Isn’t he at a higher risk of breaking down and not having a long career? Isn’t this irresponsible based on what they told us last year??? If he goes to this role, he doesn’t come out of it in 2007 or maybe ever. At least now you have Hansen and Bryce Cox as attractive bargaining chips.

How will they address the hole in the rotation? The candidates:
Kyle Snyder: Based on his spring you could make a case for it, but during last season he was only solid thru 4 innings and then fell apart.
Julian Tavares: More intriguing especially since he pitched well in that role down the stretch last year. But remember that he only went 5 or 6 innings.
Joel Piniero: Had the worst numbers in the AL last season but has looked OK this spring with an increase in velocity.
Kason Gabbard: Outstanding spring only giving up 5 hits in 10 IP. His promotion would require releasing someone from the pen.
Jon Lieber / Mark Hendrickson / other: Will cost you a Wily Mo and a few young arms. Who trades decent starting pitching in March/April? You can forget a 1a or #2.
Roger Clemens: Doesn’t seem as improbable now - does it?

The Sox may just use what they have internally and weather the storm until Lester is ready. The downside is that may be into June or even July. Even though he’s been pitching already, they won’t rush this kid back.

Are they better?
No. They fixed one need and created another. Unless they trade for a top line starter using Hansen and/or Bryce Cox, they are weaker. The best rotation in the majors is now just good. Lets hope the bullpen just became one of the best in the league.

Why? Why? Why?
Obviously none of the closer candidates separated themselves from the pack this spring and the price of acquiring a closer has been sky high. The questionable piece is that Papelbon will have a restricted workload in order to protect the shoulder. That would make you think this is a 2007 solution only - until Hansen or Cox are groomed. Schill may be gone next season and they'll need him back in the rotation. This doesn't make them better. Maybe they are buying time until the break. Hopefully it pays off and this skepticism will wear off...

The Real Deal...

Dice-K now has 3 major league (albeit spring training) starts under his belt. His latest start against the Pirates yielded one hit on 92 pitches in 5 2/3 IP. Now, the Pirates aren’t exactly the cream of the crop, but only 4 balls made it to the outfield. The surprising thing is how many were baffled by pitches and not just at the plate. Pirates hitters were watching the replay of their at bats on a laptop in the dugout and still could not figure out some of the pitches thrown - ON REPLAY and in SLOW MOTION.

Scouts will tell you he has thrown between 4 and 7 different pitches in an outing. The ones agreed upon are; fastball, curve, slider, and changeup. You’ll also hear four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, splitter, and the “shuto” (described as; kind of like a changeup and kind of like a curveball, and kind of like a split-finger) – not to be confused with the mythical “gyroball”. Regardless, you have hitters saying “I don’t know what that pitch was.” The weapon of the unknown is very powerful. There are going to be some ugly swings and feet in concrete this season.

His other big advantage is his ability to continually keep hitters off balance with his delivery. Apparently he has a stop in his delivery and changes his movements each time he comes to the set position. Guys will not be able to get into a rhythm at the plate which should baffle baserunners as well.

This guy is just different. He’s also got some nasty stuff with fastballs hitting 96, sliders in the mid 80’s, and offspeed stuff in the 70’s. He seems to be smart, savvy, and a cool customer. He’s had a media circus follow him since the age of 18. Pressure has never seemed to affect him in a negative way and he’s seemed to thrive on it.

That being said, lets not create a bust and send it to the Hall just yet. Even Bill James has him slated with a 13-8 record in 2007. But he has all the ingredients to be GREAT. He has a number of obstacles to overcome with the biggest being cultural. The switch from every 6 days to 5 days shouldn’t be an issue but it will be interesting to see how they handle his pitch counts. The biggest question is will he adjust to the MLB style of pitching or will the Sox adjust to the Japanese style.

Get ready Sox fans. This is going to be a fun ride!