The latest word out of Minnesota is that a Santana trade is imminent within the next 10 days.
Will Minnesota continue to be Boston's feeding ground like Ortiz & Garnett? Not likely as Lester has apparently been taken off the table. With Clay Bucholtz also as untouchable, that leaves Ellsbury & minor league pitching for Minnesota to choose from. Word is the Mets have become the favorites.
It really seems like Minnesota's new GM Bill Smith really screwed the pooch on this deal. His gamble to wait for a better deal has backfired (so far) with Boston and the Yanks pulling back their top prospects. Santana's request for upwards of $25M per year over 6 years (ending at age 35) may have increased apprehension as well.
If Smith waits until the All Star break, he could get better offers. However, what happens if the Twins are in the hunt? There's no way you trade him then, but then you lose him to free agency at the end of the season. The Twins simply can't afford (or won't pay) $20M+ per season. It's a tricky proposition at best and the situation may be forcing his hand now. But how does he look taking a package below what was offered earlier?
Who needs Santana the most? How good are their offers?
Mets Rotation
Pedro
Maine
El Duque
Pelfrey/Other
Livan Hernandez (not signed yet)
They also have health questions with Pedro & El Duque...
Proposed Package to Twins
OF Carlos Gomez or Fernando Martinez
SP Mike Pelfry
SP Phillip Humber
It's clear the Mets are the most desperate who currently don't have a solid 5 man rotation. Their current package to Minnesota seems weak in comparison to the Sox & Yanks offers, and it doesn't weaken their current roster. However they might be more motivated to sweeten the pot, but at $25M per season it can't get much sweeter.
Yankees Rotation
Wang
Pettite
Phil Hughes
Ian Kennedy
Mussina
Karstens/Igawa
That's a lot of youngsters in there... How will Pettite react to HGH & will Mussina make it a full season? Will Igawa bounce back from an abysmal year?
Proposed Package to Twins
CF Melky Cabrera
SP Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy
SP Jeff Marquez
another prospect
The Yanks would be creating a hole in their lineup and losing control over a good young arm. Money isn't the issue here, so it comes down to Cashman vs. Hank. The Yanks may NEED to do this deal in order to challenge for the AL East & wildcard. Not sure their rotation scares anyone, especially come playoff time. But holding on to their talent will certainly make them stronger in the long run. So it's try and win now vs. rebuilding the franchise. Poor Jeter. Think he would OK a trade to the Sox to win more rings?
Sox Rotation
Beckett
Dice-K
Schilling
Wake
Lester
Bucholtz
That's six solid starters...
Proposed Package to Twins
SP Lester (now off the table)
CF Coco Crisp or Jacoby Ellsbury
SP Justin Masterson
SS Jed Lowrie
The Sox do not need to do this deal. In fact they may be better off standing where they are. In fact, most clubs rated Lester the second best pitcher on the Sox staff at the end of the season. Ellsbury is a star in the making and Gammons thinks Lowrie could be the anchor at SS and be even better than Pedroia. That's not faint praise. Bucholtz is projected to be a #1 stud with just a little more seasoning in the minors (despite his no hitter). So a rotation of Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, and Bucholtz (all 27 and under) will anchor the franchise for years at quite the price. The emergence of starters Masterson (projected late 2008) & Bowden (projected 2009) will be ready to step in once Schill and/or Wake hang em up...
Regardless of what happens, it will be a good season again in Boston. In fact most Sox fans would rather see them do it again without a Santana. The kids are alright!
Only 18 more days until Spring Training!!!
