Hot Stove headed into GM Meetings...

Here's the latest as we near next weeks GM meetings in Dallas...

Manny Gate
The latest on Manny is that Mets GM Omar Minaya is going after him hard, and will probably try to get something done at the winter GM meetings next week. David Ortiz had stated last week that Manny would not be back & that his preference would be on the west coast. Here’s a few pro’s & cons…

1) Mets would need to shed salary and address one of their biggest needs – a closer. They’ve reportedly offered Wagner $10+M a year. On top of Delgado, that’s an additional $30M a year. The supposed “blank checkbook” would be north of $135M. Doubt it even with new TV deal.
2) According to David Ortiz, Manny will not be back to Boston, and prefers the West coast. Choices are limited to Angels & Dodgers, with Seattle (Manny’s choice) a longshot.
3) A third team would need to get involved, as Mets only have highly touted OF prospect Lastings Milledge as bait. Delgado was told he would not be traded, as he would fill the 1B void in Boston.
4) Sox rumored to make offer to Wagner, which would have to be more than the $10M offered by Mets/Phillies. Now that BJ Ryan was offered over $9M per for 5yrs, that price should go up. Unless Sox want to go over $130M, they would have to shed Ramirez’s salary.
5) Supposedly Sox management has made a last ditch effort to keep him as well
6) He can veto any trade, and could change his mind 25 times before spring training
7) His threat to not show at spring training lowers his value

We really have no idea which way this will go. Will the Sox & fans be able to deal with his antics again? At least the Beckett trade will take the sting out of a potential bad deal for the Sox.

Bottom line is that the Sox are better with him, and you won’t get dollar for dollar in a trade. A third team will more than likely have to be involved. The Sox also have enough trade bait to sweeten the right deal. Worst case, they get top prospects & use the money to sign Konerko & Wagner for similar dollars.

Check out www.KeepManny.com - sign a petition to help keep him in Boston!

Damon
Haven’t heard much response from the Boras camp on the supposed $10M for 3 years. Rumblings are that Sox will make a push to get him signed in a shorter timeframe than Varitek last season. A Boras tactic is to drag on negotiations, and apparently his dealings with Lucchino (who has taken a more active role) in the past were contentious. Let’s hope this works to the Sox advantage. It will be critical for the Sox to have a solid leadoff guy especially if Manny goes bye bye.


Bullpen
The Sox reportedly are making an offer to Wagner as early as today. At least we know where they stand on Foulke now. You know he’ll want out if Wagner is signed. They must be worried about his mental state. Who would take Foulke? A small market team looking for a starter?

A potential trade with San Diego for David Wells could yield reliever Akinori Otsuka & Dave Roberts. Roberts is a hometown favorite, but would be relegated to a 4th outfielder, but that was the reason he was traded last offseason. He’s not a suitable replacement for Damon (hit .275 with 8HR & 38RBI’s – not great #’s for leadoff).

Tom Gordon’s name has been floating around the Sox. The Yanks have yet to pounce on him in this thin market. Surprising. He had a solid season and would have been better if he wasn’t so overused, especially down the stretch.

Kyle Farnsworth & Japanese league’s (Seibu Lions) Shinji Mori are longshots, but possibilities if Wagner or other options dry up.

First
There are many options here, most being trade options. Sox reportedly concentrating on lefthanders.
Konerko is only viable if Manny is dealt.
Delgado was told he is not being traded.
Lyle Overbay is supposedly expendable due to a prospect projected to hit 40HR. Rumors have the Sox sending Clement. This seems too steep a price, and Milwaukee would need to send more. No way they do this deal straight up.
Adrian Gonzalez form Texas seems like the most viable option, as the Sox could trade catching prospect Shoppach
Fall back candidates are John Olerud or Travis Lee
Long shots are Chad Tracy from Diamondbacks or Sean Casey from Reds
What happens to Youkilis? If a big name is signed, he becomes expendable. Otherwise he’s in a platoon situation with a younger guy or Olerud. Sox may not be as high on him as the fans are.


Second
Sounds more & more that Sox are not sold on Pedroia starting the season in Boston. Only problem is finding a viable one-year option. Most guys they are considering are looking for multi-year deals. Based on the reports last year, he should be given a shot. Most trade publications rank Pedroia in the top 15 prospects in baseball.

Rotation
Who is the odd man out? Will Schilling be healthy or still a shell of his former self? Gut feeling is that Arroyo is pen bound & they’ll keep him in case Schilling faulters.
Matt Clement’s fate is up in the air. He’s been mentioned in at least one rumor. Did the line drive to the squash damage him, or will the late season swoon continue? Sox may have apprehensive & unafraid to move him. Still better than Arroyo however.
David Wells may retire if not traded to the west coast. Roberts as part of the deal doesn’t make sense. Apparently Sox are getting Angels & Dodgers to get involved in an attempt to get San Diego moving. Stay tuned.

GM
Looks like the Sox could continue the GM by Committee, or even stick one of the older internal guys with an interim tag. Based on what they’ve done so far, an internal promotion is still possible. Either way, they’ve had a successful offseason so far.


Stay tuned for breaking news & more updates…

Sox land the big Marlin

Oh baby. Wow. It's not official yet but this is huge. A bargain at $4-5M for 2006, but also the ability to sign a franchise type pitcher to a long term deal. The opportunity to sign this caliber of pitcher doesn't come along every day, especially at age 25. He's easily a solid #2 behind Schilling. They have the horses to get it done in Oct again...

The Deal:

Sox Get:

Josh Beckett 25, 15-8, 3.38 ERA. Power pitcher, fastball tops at 97, sinker at 92-94, nasty 12 to 6 curveball. Sox get better and younger. Proven Yankee killer - remember game 6 of the World Series?



Sounds like Paul Revere calling...




Mike Lowell - 3B, 32, gold glove, but career lows last yr: .238 BA, 8HR, 58 RBI. Replaces Mueller with similar power numbers and equal defense. Should be able to get closer to last 5 year avg of 20+HR & 90+RBI, especially with Sox lineup. Right handed pull hitter at Fenway? Sounds like a doubles machine.

Cash - Marlins are desperate to dump payroll, but still paying out some of Lowell's remaining $18M over 2 years.



Marlins Get:

Hanley Ramirez - 21, SS, Sox organization's top prospect. Projected to be superstar caliber. Would have seen Boston in midseason the earliest but will start for Marlins. Renteria signing makes a little more sense now if they were looking to trade him.

Anibel Sanchez - 21, Starter, highly touted righthander, strikeout type pitcher. Went 6-1, 2.40 ERA in Single A. Promoted to AA, went 3-5, 3.45 ERA in 11 starts. Probably won't make big club until mid season 2007 at earliest. Sox able to keep prized lefty starter Jon Lester (AA pitcher of year), look for him mid season. Rumored to have better pure stuff than Papelbon. Wow.

Player to be named later: To be determined, but will be a minor league pitcher...

The Outcome:

Sox get the best of this deal by far. A stud #2 or arguably 1-A caliber ace, gold glove 3rd baseman and cash, for 3 minor league prospects. Wow. Sox make the right call trading away their blue chip & another solid pitching prospect. Kudos to the GM Team for getting this one done.

Sox rotation:

Schilling

Beckett

Papelbon

Clement

Wakefield

-

Wells - Trade to SD for relief pitching?

Arroyo - back to pen?

DiNardo - pen in April

-

Lester - start season in AAA, up in mid season?

Alvarez - Sox pen in April?

Other rumors:

GM - Still very much up in the air. Current GM Team did solid job. Will they look internally now that they're somewhat proven? Gammons also reports that Theo might still be in the mix. Our gut says Bowden, but regardless, the organization looks much stronger after the Beckett deal.

Damon - Sox reportedly offered 3 years between $9-10M per. Just a starting point? Boras threw 7yrs and $84M at the Yanks. Where's the middle? Sox should jump on 4yrs $42M.

1B - Now that Sox landed Lowell, look for Youkilis at first. He's a solid defender at 3rd and was working out at first in AAA last season. Love to see Olerud back as platoon. Stay tuned.

Closer - Sox reportedly making inquiries into Wagner. They would have to shell out significant dollars to pry him away.

2B - Mark Grudzielanek - Sox might not be sold on Pedroia just yet. We'll know soon enough if he signs to more than 1 year deal.

MVP goes to...

The wrong player.

A-Rod gets the nod over Ortiz by a slim margin, his second overall since winning with last place Texas. Apparently most writers are old school and feel that the DH position doesn't merit the award. But, at least 11 writers (first place votes) thought that his accomplishments far exceeded his position. But, here's the kicker - if Ortiz had played half the year at first, even horribly, this race wouldn't have been close (see Don Baylor). This award has always been about offense, not defense (see Canseco). Today's ESPN poll of 90,000+ participants, over 55% thought Ortiz should win. What it really comes down to is which team suffers more if you remove the player. Ortiz performed far better & won more games then A-Rod in the clutch. How many games did A-Rod win with his glove? Nuff said...

GM RUMORS:

Latest GM rumor is that Theo has been offered the position for the Dodgers. The wildcard here is that they reportedly offered him a small piece of ownership. Will it be enough to sway him? Chances are no based on his unwillingness to work in a difficult environment (which may be the same in LA). Could change based on the SIZE of the ownership. Still think he will act in a consulting type role, or even ESPN analyst until the job he covets opens up (Washington?).

FREE AGENCY:

Friday marked the first day that teams lost exclusive negotiating rights with their free agents. It's been fairly quiet across baseball, and not much info is floating out there yet. Here's a few tidbits:

Manny - reports are saying Sox must be bowled over with an offer to move him. With no one team apparently in that position, it will take 3 teams to get involved. Most think he will stay in Boston.

Damon - report leaked that the Sox had extended an offer, and most assume it was to Damon. Sox are thought to be aggressive going after him. They almost have to be, as his agent, Boras, loves to drag negotiations on. If they wait to long, it could interfere with other needs or trades (Manny).

Nomar - Cubs reportedly have asked him to look elsewhere. Injuries have been decimating & humbling. Sox would be crazy not to offer him a job at 2nd. An incentive based contract, based on health, for one year until he proves himself (to go back out on open market). Won't hurt to have Pedroia start in AAA or platoon. That is, if he can get past the trade. Can you imagine Fenway if he steps up to the plate? Wow. May solve part of offensive issue if Manny is dealt...

Sox Hot Stove - GM Meetings

Well folks, here's the first installment of the Hot Stove season. Not too much going on, unless of course you look internally. Now that the initial Theo shock has worn off, we press on and look at the external goings on.

Management is sending their own "Rat Pack" into the GM meetings this week. While Cherington, Hoyer, Shipley, & Woodfork don't have the cache of Frank & the boys, they should have the necessary seasoning & understanding of the system. Let's hope GM by committee has more success than closer by committee did. At least they haven't rushed the GM position...

Teams have until Nov 10th to sign their respective players, otherwise they hit the open free agent market. On to the latest news...


Mike Timlin - recently signed a one year deal with Sox for a reported $3.5M


Manny Ramirez:

3 way trade with Arizona / Angels has been shot down. Sox would have received 3B Glaus, 1B Erstad, and prospects. Shouldn't do deal unless stud pitcher is involved.

Sounds like the Mets rumors are back on involving Mike Cameron (still damaged from last year?), and 2 of their 3 top prospects. This would also impact re-signing Damon. Look for a third team once again if this is going to happen.


David Wells:

Asked for trade to left coast. Apparently tired of east coast spotlight. Born & raised in San Diego, rumored to have purchased a house there recently. Early indications point to Sox not satisfied with potential players, including young starter & solid relief.


Johnny Damon:

Has stated he wants big contract consisting of at least 5 years. That's a tall request for someone who will be 37 in the final year of that deal. His agent Scott Boras floated 4yrs & $50m out there. Look for Sox to make a strong push to get him re-signed.


Paul Konerko:

Rumors indicate he prefers not to be on east coast. Apparently told teammates during ALDS that he would not come to Boston. Money has a way of changing things.


Bill Mueller:

Sox plan to speak with his agent. Can't imagine them letting Youkilis spend another year in utility role. They will have to trade him or play him if they keep Mueller. Look for Billy in a Twins uni in 06.


Kevin Millar:

Recent reports have him doubting a return to Boston. Apparently O's & Twins have some interest.


BJ Ryan:

Most coveted reliever on market. Sox would love to have him, but Yanks will probably overpay to get him.



AJ Burnett:

Most coveted starter on the market. Someone other than the Sox will overpay. He still has "potential" tag stuck to him. Left Florida on bad terms as well..

Stay tuned for weekly updates! We will also be reporting any breaking news.

Market should get hotter later this week.

State of the Yankees - offseason needs

Hello gang. Here's a quick look at where the Yanks stand and what they need this offseason. It's been since Year 2000 and now close to a billion dollars since they last won it all. Hell, it seems like T-rex was around the last time they won it - especially in NY. With an aging team and one of the thinnest free agent markets in recent memory, they have a lot of work to do this offseason. The only stability they have is now at GM & a revamped coaching staff. The farm system has been depleted the last couple years, and doesn't have much talent above single A ball. Cashman will have to get creative to pull off any significant trades...

Catcher:

Posada - will be 35, hit .258 and power #'s down. Definitely on the back 9, Big Unit still won't pitch to him

Backup? Future? Big issue if Posada goes down, or skills disintegrate.


1B / DH:

Giambi - will be 35, "rebounded" to hit .271, 32HR, 87RBI. Who knows what you get next season - roid / HGH effects. Full time DH in 2006? Definite in 2007...

Tino - will be 39, no telling if he comes back. Had a brief power spurt, but only hit .243

Sierra - will be 41, #'s way down, will be a cheap option

Hold on with platoon guys until prospect Eric Duncan is ready in 2 seasons?


2B:

Cano had solid rookie season. Should be long term option.



SS:

Jeter - will be 32, hit .308 but power #'s down. Could be start of decline, but still has a few years left


3B:

A-Rod - will be 31, had MVP caliber season. Will be OK if he gets gambling under control


Utility:

Need to pick up 1B & infield backup - most likely vets on back 9 of career


RF:

Sheffield - will be 38, had solid 2005 #'s, but age and injury history bound to catch up soon


Outfield:

Crosby - will be 30, backup duty at most, will be shocked if given start in CF

Lawton - huge disappointment at trade deadline, now suspended for roids. Not much impact in 06.

Free Agency:

Bernie - probably won't be back - already have cheaper options with same stats / short money

Matsui - will be 32, must re-sign. No better options out there but he won't be cheap.

Damon - biggest name free agent on market. Will be 32 & wants at least 5 years. Yanks will have to offer 6yrs & more money than Sox.

Giles - will be 35, power #'s OK but declining. Still significant upgrade over Bernie. May force Matsui into CF which weakens defense. Teams will run on Matsui in center.

Trade: (rumored)

Milton Bradley - hit .290 but only 13HR, 38RBI's, some injury history & what a head case. Good luck with this one...


Relief:

Rivera - will be 37, had great 2005. Age has to catch up to him at some point. Doesn't it?

Small - will be 35, now with his 15th major league team. Don't expect repeat of last season. There is a reason Torre kept taking him in & out of the rotation. He's bullpen bound in 06.

Free Agency:

BJ Ryan - had solid 2005, best reliever on market (outside of closers). Yanks will have to overpay with several teams in bidding war. They'll get him, but they'll pay.

Sturtze - had subpar 2005 with 4.7 ERA.

Others: Good luck. Worst crop in a while - topping last year's list. Guys like Gordon, Guardado, Mesa, Urbina all want to close, not be setup guys behind Rivera.


Starters:

Big Unit - will be 43. Ouch. Mediocre 2005. Back problems persist, no cartiledge left in one knee. Worst season in years, should have stayed in NL. Don't look for much improvement, will probably see #2 type numbers at best.

Mussina - will be 38. 13 wins & 4.4 ERA is respectable, but not for a #2 making $20M. Age & injuries will continue to follow him. Can't stay healthy the entire season.

Chacon - will be 29. Yanks most consistent starter, pitched well in 2005. Still only a solid #4 or fringe #3 guy.

Wang - will be 26. Solid rookie season with 4.1 ERA, could be potential #3 guy. Not a good sign when your rookie pitcher is out 2 months with a strained shoulder. Can't be too optomistic with the youngest pitcher on the staff spending significant time on the DL.

Pavano - will be 30. Very mediocre 4-6, 4.7ERA performance. Still has the "potential" tag, with career losing record & 4.3ERA. Don't expect a breakout season with "new" rotator cuff injury. Not sure how mentally stable he is. Already mentioned in trade rumors to Seattle.

Wright - will be 31. Bounced back from horrific start, but turned into a ball magnet. Based on injury history, any success will be short lived.

Free Agency:

AJ Burnett - best pitcher on market. Will command high dollars, but stuck with same "potential" label as Pavano. His early Florida exit may be warning sign he can't handle the pressure, and there's plenty in NY.

Matsuzaka - plays for Japanese league's Seibu Lions. On a few teams radar, exceptional talent apparently. Doesn't have permission to leave, but still hired Scott Boras as agent. Long shot at this point.


Bottom Line:

Overall, not much change coming to the everyday lineup. Big question marks are CF, mid relief, and the starters. As proven again this season, pitching wins in Oct. Their lineup will be fine, with some depth needed at catcher and outfield.

But the starters are OLD and injury prone. Not one guy on the staff has made all their starts. Big Unit is no longer the true Ace he was even in 2004. Mid relief will probably be their achilles heel in 06. Other than BJ Ryan, the free agent crop is thin, and teams will be reluctant to part with any arms - especially effective ones.

Cashman will need to be very creative, especially with an immature farm system. The current Yanks payroll is just shy of $170M even with the loss of multiple big contracts (Bernie, Kevin Brown, etc). Money obviously isn't an issue. But, between CF ($7M-11M), Matsui ($10M), BJ Ryan ($6M), possibly AJ Burnett ($11M) & dead money ($5M - via trades), you're looking at $210M. Just obscene.

Don't expect to see this sign - except in a museum, Yankee fans. There's still not enough pitching. The drought will continue in NY...

Theo's gone, Sox Nation reeling...

The loss of Theo is the first misstep the organization has taken. The proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back came in the form of an article written by Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe - Here's the article . Basically it revealed some of the more intimate details of the working relationship between Theo & Lucchino, as well as details of what Theo assumed to be private. They way in which the Colorado deal was handled also incensed him. There was no question in Theo’s mind that Lucchino had leaked the story to his friend Shaughnessy, aka the curly haired boyfriend. Not to mention that the Globe “coincidentally” owns a 17% stake in the Sox. Trying to utilize the media was a critical mistake.

The article calls into question Theo’s role and how there was hand holding going on during his development. It also leads you to believe that Theo hasn’t been standing on his own two feet. Then he drones on about how Theo’s “minions” have been doing more talking than Sox management. Please. The story was “leaked” directly by Lucchino. Shaughnessy indirectly works for the Sox. You have to take what is reported with a grain of salt, or at least grasp the point of view of the writer. If any of this was true, why was he offered $1.5M a year for 3 years? Curious.



Yup, here's 2 guys that may not make it back...

What it comes down to is that the ego of Lucchino came before a business decision. He would rather put a media spin on this to ensure people think he has the upper hand. It backfired. There was no need to massage the fans. The perception of Theo was positive, and everyone expected the Sox to pay up in order to keep him. This was all about Larry. Theo knew in his heart he couldn’t trust the person he was working for any longer. If he was on the fence about coming back, he was pushed over by the article. Now the Sox have lost one of baseball’s rising stars. Theo grew up a mile from the park, had a better grasp of the dynamics than anyone, and was destined to run this team for years - successfully.

Who’s ultimately to blame? Lucchino? Absolutely. His EGO has taken its first victim in his tenure. Even mild-mannered guys like Peter Gammons have become harsh towards Boston because of him.

Shaughnessy? He’s a whore, plain and simple. Some folks in the media say they would have done the story if leaked to them. Point is they are no better. You should be held accountable regardless. All he cares about is the story, not the effects of it. In today’s column, he says “Blame me if it makes you feel better”. Well we do blame you, it doesn’t make us feel better, and we’re not buying the “BS” as you try to cover yourself. Stop being evasive and own up to it. You screwed up. You let yourself be used. You should be ashamed. But when you’ve been on your back as many times as he has, there’s no conscience, no regrets, and no integrity left. Let’s hope Karma makes a visit sooner rather than later.

But until then, here’s his email address: dshaughnessy@globe.com