Monday, November 28, 2005

Hot Stove headed into GM Meetings...

Here's the latest as we near next weeks GM meetings in Dallas...


Manny Gate
The latest on Manny is that Mets GM Omar Minaya is going after him hard, and will probably try to get something done at the winter GM meetings next week. David Ortiz had stated last week that Manny would not be back & that his preference would be on the west coast. Here’s a few pro’s & cons…

1) Mets would need to shed salary and address one of their biggest needs – a closer. They’ve reportedly offered Wagner $10+M a year. On top of Delgado, that’s an additional $30M a year. The supposed “blank checkbook” would be north of $135M. Doubt it even with new TV deal.
2) According to David Ortiz, Manny will not be back to Boston, and prefers the West coast. Choices are limited to Angels & Dodgers, with Seattle (Manny’s choice) a longshot.
3) A third team would need to get involved, as Mets only have highly touted OF prospect Lastings Milledge as bait. Delgado was told he would not be traded, as he would fill the 1B void in Boston.
4) Sox rumored to make offer to Wagner, which would have to be more than the $10M offered by Mets/Phillies. Now that BJ Ryan was offered over $9M per for 5yrs, that price should go up. Unless Sox want to go over $130M, they would have to shed Ramirez’s salary.
5) Supposedly Sox management has made a last ditch effort to keep him as well
6) He can veto any trade, and could change his mind 25 times before spring training
7) His threat to not show at spring training lowers his value

We really have no idea which way this will go. Will the Sox & fans be able to deal with his antics again? At least the Beckett trade will take the sting out of a potential bad deal for the Sox.

Bottom line is that the Sox are better with him, and you won’t get dollar for dollar in a trade. A third team will more than likely have to be involved. The Sox also have enough trade bait to sweeten the right deal. Worst case, they get top prospects & use the money to sign Konerko & Wagner for similar dollars.
Check out www.KeepManny.com - sign a petition to help keep him in Boston!

Damon
Haven’t heard much response from the Boras camp on the supposed $10M for 3 years. Rumblings are that Sox will make a push to get him signed in a shorter timeframe than Varitek last season. A Boras tactic is to drag on negotiations, and apparently his dealings with Lucchino (who has taken a more active role) in the past were contentious. Let’s hope this works to the Sox advantage. It will be critical for the Sox to have a solid leadoff guy especially if Manny goes bye bye.


Bullpen
The Sox reportedly are making an offer to Wagner as early as today. At least we know where they stand on Foulke now. You know he’ll want out if Wagner is signed. They must be worried about his mental state. Who would take Foulke? A small market team looking for a starter?

A potential trade with San Diego for David Wells could yield reliever Akinori Otsuka & Dave Roberts. Roberts is a hometown favorite, but would be relegated to a 4th outfielder, but that was the reason he was traded last offseason. He’s not a suitable replacement for Damon (hit .275 with 8HR & 38RBI’s – not great #’s for leadoff).

Tom Gordon’s name has been floating around the Sox. The Yanks have yet to pounce on him in this thin market. Surprising. He had a solid season and would have been better if he wasn’t so overused, especially down the stretch.

Kyle Farnsworth & Japanese league’s (Seibu Lions) Shinji Mori are longshots, but possibilities if Wagner or other options dry up.

First
There are many options here, most being trade options. Sox reportedly concentrating on lefthanders.
Konerko is only viable if Manny is dealt.
Delgado was told he is not being traded.
Lyle Overbay is supposedly expendable due to a prospect projected to hit 40HR. Rumors have the Sox sending Clement. This seems too steep a price, and Milwaukee would need to send more. No way they do this deal straight up.
Adrian Gonzalez form Texas seems like the most viable option, as the Sox could trade catching prospect Shoppach
Fall back candidates are John Olerud or Travis Lee
Long shots are Chad Tracy from Diamondbacks or Sean Casey from Reds
What happens to Youkilis? If a big name is signed, he becomes expendable. Otherwise he’s in a platoon situation with a younger guy or Olerud. Sox may not be as high on him as the fans are.


Second
Sounds more & more that Sox are not sold on Pedroia starting the season in Boston. Only problem is finding a viable one-year option. Most guys they are considering are looking for multi-year deals. Based on the reports last year, he should be given a shot. Most trade publications rank Pedroia in the top 15 prospects in baseball.

Rotation
Who is the odd man out? Will Schilling be healthy or still a shell of his former self? Gut feeling is that Arroyo is pen bound & they’ll keep him in case Schilling faulters.
Matt Clement’s fate is up in the air. He’s been mentioned in at least one rumor. Did the line drive to the squash damage him, or will the late season swoon continue? Sox may have apprehensive & unafraid to move him. Still better than Arroyo however.
David Wells may retire if not traded to the west coast. Roberts as part of the deal doesn’t make sense. Apparently Sox are getting Angels & Dodgers to get involved in an attempt to get San Diego moving. Stay tuned.

GM
Looks like the Sox could continue the GM by Committee, or even stick one of the older internal guys with an interim tag. Based on what they’ve done so far, an internal promotion is still possible. Either way, they’ve had a successful offseason so far.


Stay tuned for breaking news & more updates…

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