Friday, February 17, 2006

Signs of Spring, Finally...

Well, it's only a day before pitchers & catchers report. Always get a little excited this time of year. It's very different since the spring of 2004, when "wait till next year" finally evaporated. This will also be a very different spring in that there were so many changes in the offseason. The infield has been completely revamped which will undoubtedly change one of the league's weakest into one of the strongest. The acquisiton of Beckett and the rise of Papelbon makes us giddy just thinking about it, not even considering the up and coming lefty Lester waiting in AAA. The bullpen is very deep and has the potential to be one of the best in the majors.

There are many questions to be answered before the season starts, but overall, this should be an improved club over the 2005 version. Is it good enough to win in October? On paper it is. But as we all know, they have to play the games. Pitching & defense wins championships, and the Sox improved both. Many things will shake out in Spring Training...
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Health:
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Schilling - can he regain the form of 2004? Probably not, but we think he'll be close. According to reports, he's slimmed down & was able to get back to his old routines. Never count out anyone with the amount of determination he has...
Beckett - Will this be his first season of 180-200 innings? Reportedly, he cut his offseason workouts in half. He's only 26, so the ability to bounce back is very high. Frankly, we're more worried about the blisters. We predict around 30 starts & 18 wins...
Foulke - We are not as concerned as everyone else seems to be. Even if he is horrible, you have Papelbon & ultimately Hansen to fill the role. Timlin faired well last year too...
Trot - Similar to Schill, reports say that he is in great shape. If he does stumble, look for Theo to deal him in July as he is in a contract year.
Unknown - There is always an injury. Add in the WBC, along with 7 or 8 Sox starters, and chances have doubled. Let's hope if there is an injury, the depth the Sox have will cover it...
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Offense:
Youkilis - We think he is poised for a breakout year. He's ready. We're projecting .280, 15HR, 80RBI in platoon with JT Snow. If he can put up 5HR & 20 RBI, they're at the top of the league.
Lowell - No telling how he will rebound. We think he'll be better. Remember that Mueller's #'s were virtually the same as Lowell last season. Anything higher is gravy...
Overall - There will be a drop off in production, no question. However, they should still score plenty of runs. A significant drop from last year still puts them in the top 5 offensively. Ask the White Sox how that worked out last season...
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Intangibles:
How will Crisp handle the pressure in Boston? According to reports, he might thrive in it. He apparently likes the big stage. The best part is he's only 26 and will get better. He may be an all- star by year 2.
What is the personality of this club? It will take time to develop. The characters keeping things light are mostly gone. From all reports, the new guys all have solid character. If nothing else, they will be professional. Chemistry will grow from winning, which they should do. They also have Schilling as a lightning rod if things go south.
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Outlook:
You have to be optomistic right now. The offense won't be as goliath as it has been, but that's the bad news. Pitching and defense are both improved, and thats what it takes in Oct. Even if some players don't rebound or meet expectations, this team has enough talent to carry them. Unless they are decimated with injuries, we're in for a good ride in 06. And don't forget the GM mantra:
Assess what you have in April, evaluate until July, and add pieces before Aug. Oh yeah, and "In Theo we Trust"...

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