Thursday, November 22, 2007

Takin care of business...

With the signings of Schill & Lowell, the Sox were able to reload for 08. Two of the most popular and productive guys are back - and both at a discount to what the market would bear. Can’t say that about any of the Yankees, can you?

They are back only because they want to be here. Schill would have commanded huge dollars on the open market (not to mention an extra year) and Lowell had a guaranteed 4th year and more money from two other teams. Speaks volumes about Boston & their Sox teammates. It’s a great feeling that not just one, but two guys leave money on the table. You almost never find that in professional sports, never mind the same team. That’s a pride you’ll never feel in NY. It’s only about the money in your backyard. How’s that working out by the way?

These signings are also significant to the 2008 squad. The rotation now has 6 viable starters. That gives them a lot of flexibility and also provides protection against injuries. Not sure if Farrell was sincere in talking about using a 6 man rotation, but why not. The Lowell signing was also big in that they retained a gold glove and #5 hitter. It also keeps the farm intact.

What are their needs this offseason?
They really could do nothing and be fine. But it’s almost a guarantee that Coco will be dealt. The amazing part is that the Sox are actually in the drivers seat. When did that happen last?

Pitching is always something they have their eye on, but they may go after a catcher to be the ultimate replacement of Varitek. They also have the luxury of grabbing a top tier prospect who isn’t ready for the show.

They'll also be extending Francona at some point soon, and don't be surprised to see Varitek sign a two year extension.

Bullpen
They are fairly solid again next year. With Papelbon, Okajima, and Delcarmen they have a solid base. Tavares is back, and they will probably make offers to Timlin and Donnelly. You’ve got Craig Hansen and Edgar Martinez on the farm, but don’t be surprised to see the Sox acquire someone in a Coco deal or even sign a Kerry Wood at the right price.

Will they pursue Santana?
No question. However, they will probably have to give up more than they want to. What will the Twins will ask for? How about Bucholtz, Elsbury, Lester, and another top prospect like Craig Hansen. For argument sake, let’s say you can lock up Santana long term for $18-20M per season (he's also looking for 7 years which puts him at age 35). Do you make that deal? Keep in mind that you would have a 1-2 of Beckett and Santana, followed by Dice-K, Schill, and Wake. Formidable to say the least. If you can replace Elsbury with Coco, even better.

The downside is that you have created a hole for your 2009 squad in the #4 & #5 starter positions. You’ve also relinquished control over 2 young arms as well as the financial benefit of their low salaries. That’s gold in today’s standards. What it comes down to is how you can fill those voids. Maybe there are guys within the system like Masterson who may be ready by then. But at the end of the day, how many GM’s would love to have the problem of only finding two back of the rotation guys? You’ll pay a premium for mediocrity, but that’s all you need back there anyway.

Pull the trigger?
You may be crazy not to. You never know what can happen. Cleveland’s top two starters only stand to get better, and meeting them in the playoffs next year could yield different results. Although Bucholtz tossed a no hitter, there’s no guarantee he’s a #1 stud. Lester will be a good major league pitcher. But Santana is a proven #1 stud over multiple seasons. Keeping him out of the Bronx would make the Yanks weaker as well. Sometimes we become too enamored with our own prospects, but at the end of the day are only prospects - despite our emotional connection. Can you imagine a two headed monster of Beckett/Santana? Let’s hope Theo can…

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