Sox lineup finally coming into focus...

Yes folks, you have someone named after a cereal in Center field. Actually his real name is Cavelli believe it or not. For those of you that have seen "A Bronx Tale" (starring DeNiro, and one of our top 10 films of all time by the way), we will be referring to Coco as "C" going forward. (Also note that in the movie, "C" was once a Yankee fan, and now the actor is in jail. No kidding - "You little Mary".)

Apparently the Sox have been very busy & managed to stay under the radar for the past month. Kudos to management "post & pre" Theo for keeping it quiet. Reportedly there have been around 75 calls back & forth with Cleveland to get this thing done. The only hurdle remaining is for Cleveland to spin off part of the trade to get an outfielder (Michaels) from the Phillies to replace Crisp.

The Details

Sox get:

CF - Coco Crisp / Relief Pitcher - David Riske / Catcher - Josh Bard

Indians Get:

Relief Pitcher - Guillermo Mota / Catcher - Kelly Shoppach / 3B - Andy Marte

Who gets the best of this trade? Both teams improved their clubs - both short & long term. Because the trade-off of relievers & catchers is somewhat a wash, the value is Marte for "C".

Sox did fairly well considering they essentially plugged 2 holes with "C" in CF & leadoff. He's a younger version of Damon, probably with more range in the OF, more speed, and a substantially better arm. His numbers aren't all that different from Damon's, and he's only 26, so they should increase. Is he a potential all-star? The only question is how he handles the pressure in Boston, one of Damon's strengths.

The Indians get one of the best rated prospects in the game in Marte, who should be a full time starter no later than next season. He was rated higher than the Sox former prospect Hanley Ramirez in the Beckett deal. Supposedly a good defensive player, but his real value is the pop in his bat. Something that is coveted in corner infields these days. He could also be a potential superstar.

Bottom Line

The Sox improved themselves both now & in the future. They get an above average CF who is 6 years younger than his predecessor, and will more than likely improve especially with this lineup behind him. They did lose a potential superstar (still unproven), but may have received an all-star themselves, who is an established everyday player. They got younger, will be paying less than half of what they would have for Damon, and didn't give up any pitching. In fact, Riske had better numbers than Mota (whose health could be a concern). They also saved a couple dollars with Riske only getting $1.8M in 2006...

Other News:

Sox are supposedly on the verge of signing free agent SS Alex Gonzalez. They are probably waiting for the "C" deal to be final before pulling the trigger. So much for all that "faith" in Alex Cora. Here's a look into Gonzalez's #'s:

2003 - .256 BA, 18HR, 77RBI, 16Errors

2004 - .232 BA, 23HR, 79 RBI, 16E

2005 - .264 BA, 5HR, 45RBI, 16E

Not outstanding, but he's your #9 hitter and solid defensively. Might be a little expensive at $5M per for two seasons, but he's also a mentor to Pedroia. Let's hope that dropoff in power wasn't due to "enhancers". He should be primed to prove folks wrong...

UP NEXT:

Once the deals are final, we'll take a look at the numbers from last year vs what we project for 2006. Stay tuned for updates on Wells & Graffanino...

He's baaaaaaaack...

Nope, it's not Ahnooold from Kalifornia...

Welcome back to Theo.

You knew it was only a matter of time. Then you really weren't sure, then maybe. Well, at least it's over. It doesn't matter what they say publicly next week, you know that Theo will have control of the reigns again. But how much? What we do know is that he was in constant contact with the front office all along, and that in recent weeks, he even made calls on their behalf.

The only question still floating around is Luccino's job description. Has he really changed his stripes and is now on board with the organizations (aka Theo's) philosophy? Strongly doubt it. People rarely go against their nature. The only sign that his job has been changed or diminished in some way will be his exit. If Lucchino signs on with the Nationals anytime soon, we'll know. He still has multiple years on his deal here, so don't buy into the "moving on to a new opportunity" lines.

Give management some credit on this one. They essentially admitted they were wrong, or at least took a long enough look at themselves and decided to change. How often do you encounter a business willing to do this? They admitted their mistake (during Theo's exit press conference), realized something was truly "off", took it to heart, and followed through in the end. Ultimately, they hired consultants to evaluate the business culture and operations. They obviously used the results, swallowed any pride, and took Theo back. The only question is - are they a better organization now? Absolutely. Lessons learned, efficiencies gained, and the Nation's faith restored. Forget all the other crap...

What remains most important is the work left to do for opening day 2006. You probably have your starting SS in Alex Cora. CF remains the only significant gap at this point. The downside is that teams have the Sox over a barrel at this point, so asking prices must be a joke.

Here are the main questions still hanging out there:

SS options:

Alex Cora - .260 BA, 3HR, 40RBI, above average fielder, good clubhouse guy, $1.3M
Don't forget that he's your #9 hitter - compared against the league it's not bad

Alex Gonzalez - .265 BA, 5HR, 45RBI - free agent, will cost $3-4M
Not much better for twice the price

Julio Lugo - .285 BA, 5HR, 60 RBI - cost of Marte or Clement/Arroyo type
Too big a cost for additional 20 RBI's, .335 OBP is not enough good for leadoff (Damon .366)

Miguel Tejada - O's apparently don't want to trade him, but stay tuned July 31st if they're struggling in 4th or 5th place

CF / OF options:

Any option will be in a trade. There are no free agents to fit the bill, and the farm system isn't an option yet (Stern is a 4th OF at best right now). The other issue is that they are probably trying to get a leadoff combo a la Johnny Damon. Otherwise, Youkilis is your leadoff guy (OBP of .367 & .400 last 2 seasons). Here's a look at the possible options:

Dave Roberts - remains the most likely, especially if Wells gets traded to the left coast

Jeremy Reed - Seattle may be asking for too much, or just unwilling to part with him

Coco Crisp - Cleveland will probably hold onto him

Torii Hunter - Twins not letting go

Ken Griffey Jr. - no way the Sox pin their hopes on this injury waiting to happen

Sammy Sosa - may be able to sign him to a non roster deal - why not? He's got something to prove, and could be a 4th OF at worst.


David Wells:

Clubs have not been offering fair value in return. Apparently he is aware of the situation as the Sox have communicated to him in the offseason. The big question is will he retire if he doesn't get traded?

Tony Graffanino:

Sox were surprised when he accepted arbitration, as they were looking for draft compensation when he signed elsewhere. He's the most expendable as the Sox will most likely deal him close to or during spring training.

Manny Ramirez:

Welcome back to Boston. Move to the suburbs, and keep your lip zipped.


Intangibles:

Injuries always occur in spring training, which the Sox must be counting on. Throw in the World Basball Classic (March 5th - 20th), and now the chances of injury more than double. What will happen to guys who normally try to peak performance EVERY YEAR in late March? Now they will be ready a MONTH EARLY. Will they over or under train? Patience may pay big dividends. So pray for 2B & pitchers to go down.

At least we know one of the better minds & dealmakers is back in the fold full time...

Manny stay or Manny go?

Manny being Manny? Absolutely. Did he really change his mind & now wants to stay in Boston? According to ESPN Deportes, he does. Someone else claims to have spoken to him after the report came out and he supposedly denied making the comment. His agent said he talked to Manny, and his comment was he doesn't recall speaking to the media. Doesn't recall? Ortiz in a recent interview had reservations about the comment, calling Manny a "box of surprises". So who the hell knows what's going on? Manny probably doesn't either...

Should I stay or should I go, now? We've sent Manny a copy of the Clash to help him decide...

Recent reports have also stated that in dealing with the O's for Tejada, Manny has asked for an extension on his contract before he would approve the deal. That means the O's would have to pick up the remaining option years @ $20M. Manny's agent dismissed that notion, but sources close to the O's said it was one of the stumbling blocks.

The bottom line is that the Sox are better WITH him. The problem is that he has hamstrung the team in terms of dealings this offseason. Apparently several deals have been waiting for the first "domino" to fall. It also led to the perception that the Sox were desperate heading into the winter meetings. That's probably why the asking prices have been so high, and why they have been offered so little for both Manny & Wells. This "box of surprises" actually turned into a box of Frosted Flakes, heavy on the "Flake".

Look at it this way, you'd never replace his offense and you're giving up way too much to replace him. Sure, you plug a hole at SS with Tejada, but you still open another in LF. This deal doesn't make the Sox better. That's what matters. Will we have to deal with more antics? Yup. But are the Sox better off? Yup. So we say pass the bowl & pour the milk. 40HR & 140RBI don't taste so bad, even when you come across a bad flake or two...

State of the Nation... with six weeks to Pitchers & Catchers

The offseason started with a bang landing Beckett. It appeared that the loss of Theo was not as dramatic as previously thought. But since then, the Sox have made, and not made, several puzzling moves. Lucchino has taken most of the heat as the Nation's impatience is growing by the day. Most teams have wrapped up their offseason moves. There are only 6 weeks until pitchers & catchers report. 6 WEEKS! Most quality free agents are gone. Here's a look into why uneasiness is settling in:

Renteria: Although most of the Nation was glad to see him go, most of us were more than surprised in what we got in return. All the more troubling is that no apparent plan was there to replace him BEFORE the trade was final. Is Alex Cora your starter?

Damon: We weren't shocked to see him leave, surprised maybe. The Sox basically made an offer they could live with and refused to overpay. Damon bolted for the cash. This is painful in the short term, but really is a good decision in the long term. But how good is the $13M going to look in Damon's final year at 36?

Here's a great article by Peter Gammons which sheds some light on management:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=2278930

Basically, he thinks that if Theo had stayed, very little would be different. He also noted that management has made every effort to fill each hole, and that the Manny fiasco has held up decision making. He applauds them for not making a bad signing in favor of making a "splash". They didn't bend on Millwood (31, arm issues, wanted 5 yrs), and the Rangers did. Sox have also held fast on Wells & Manny, refusing to get 50 cents on the dollar for returns.

It appears that they are starting to focus more on youth. According to Gammons, the biggest difference in philosophy between Theo & Lucchino is that Theo was moving towards younger players & more defense. Lucchino would rather throw money at superstars ("never give up on superstars") - he was a big believer in bringing Pedro back believe it or not. Looks like he has backed off that notion now.

Next season, you'll have a potential of 3 starters under 26 - Beckett, Papelbon, and Lester (probably August / Sept). The pen is also loaded with young talent - Hansen, Delcarmen, and Martinez. Also a list of players yet to make an impact: 1B Youkilis (26), 2B Pedroia (22), 3B Marte (22), OF Stern (25), & C Shoppach (25). Sox also have 7 of the top 100 draft choices coming up, with a number of solid prospects in A, and AA moving up.

The areas to infuse youth remain in the OF, with Trot (31) and Manny (33). Now it's apparent why the Sox were so high on Jeremy Reed (24). The current holes to fill, CF & SS, will more than likely be 1yr stopgaps at this point until a younger option is found. Don't discount the trading deadline either...

So where are they?

Rotation - as it stands now (wins projected in parenthesis) :

Schilling (16)
Beckett (16)
Wake (12)
Clement (10)
Arroyo /
Papelbon (12+)

That's 66 wins at modest projections. 2004 starters had 67 & the team won 95 games with the worst pen in the AL...

Pen - should be vastly improved. The additions of Mota, Seanez, and probably something in return for Wells (lefty?) alone make it better. Another year of maturity for Hansen & Delcarmen, and newcomer Martinez should make it one of the better ones in the AL. The real key is Foulke, which could make it dominating...

Defense - The infield was the biggest concern last season. A small upgrade at 3B, slight upgrade at 2B, anything is better than 30 errors at SS, and 1B should be solid. CF will be the only weaker spot, but at least the arm is an upgrade. Overall it should be better. Not to mention 3 strikeout pitchers in Schilling, Beckett, and Papelbon.

Offense - There are still holes in CF & SS - but not a shortage of bodies. Stern is not the best option in CF, but is available. The Sox love Cora, and probably won't give up Marte to get Lugo at SS. Youkilis should provide 15HR & 80RBI and if Mike Lowell has an improvement over his worst year (#'s were same as Mueller by the way), they get more production than 2005. Same case applies at 2B where Bellhorn was inept for most of the season, and Trot has been injury ridden the last 2 seasons (only 13HR, 67RBI). The biggest issue is leadoff, but the Sox may have an answer in Youkilis, and they expect another patient presence around .400 OBP. He'll eat up pitches and force the pitcher to throw strikes. Since when has it been the Sox style to run by the way? So is speed that much of an issue?

We must come to grips that the offense will not be where it was the past few seasons. It won't have the huge dropoff people may think. Note that the Chisox were 13th in the majors last season in runs scored. The Sox won't fall that far down with Ortiz & Manny in the lineup. Production at 1B, 2B, 3B, and RF will probably increase. Stable #'s should come from LF, DH, & C. The only questions remain at CF (10HR, 75RBI, 117 Runs) & SS (8HR, 70RBI, 100 Runs).

Even if the Sox lose 140 runs from last season, they still remain in the top 10 in the majors. The starting rotation should be able to carry them thru the tough stretches. The pen should be able to pick up the rotation. This team should win 90+ games. The big factors are Schilling, Foulke, and the trade deadline.

Don't worry Sox Nation, things aren't as bad as they seem...