Friday, January 20, 2006

He's baaaaaaaack...



Nope, it's not Ahnooold from Kalifornia...

Welcome back to Theo.

You knew it was only a matter of time. Then you really weren't sure, then maybe. Well, at least it's over. It doesn't matter what they say publicly next week, you know that Theo will have control of the reigns again. But how much? What we do know is that he was in constant contact with the front office all along, and that in recent weeks, he even made calls on their behalf.

The only question still floating around is Luccino's job description. Has he really changed his stripes and is now on board with the organizations (aka Theo's) philosophy? Strongly doubt it. People rarely go against their nature. The only sign that his job has been changed or diminished in some way will be his exit. If Lucchino signs on with the Nationals anytime soon, we'll know. He still has multiple years on his deal here, so don't buy into the "moving on to a new opportunity" lines.

Give management some credit on this one. They essentially admitted they were wrong, or at least took a long enough look at themselves and decided to change. How often do you encounter a business willing to do this? They admitted their mistake (during Theo's exit press conference), realized something was truly "off", took it to heart, and followed through in the end. Ultimately, they hired consultants to evaluate the business culture and operations. They obviously used the results, swallowed any pride, and took Theo back. The only question is - are they a better organization now? Absolutely. Lessons learned, efficiencies gained, and the Nation's faith restored. Forget all the other crap...

What remains most important is the work left to do for opening day 2006. You probably have your starting SS in Alex Cora. CF remains the only significant gap at this point. The downside is that teams have the Sox over a barrel at this point, so asking prices must be a joke.

Here are the main questions still hanging out there:

SS options:

Alex Cora - .260 BA, 3HR, 40RBI, above average fielder, good clubhouse guy, $1.3M
Don't forget that he's your #9 hitter - compared against the league it's not bad

Alex Gonzalez - .265 BA, 5HR, 45RBI - free agent, will cost $3-4M
Not much better for twice the price

Julio Lugo - .285 BA, 5HR, 60 RBI - cost of Marte or Clement/Arroyo type
Too big a cost for additional 20 RBI's, .335 OBP is not enough good for leadoff (Damon .366)

Miguel Tejada - O's apparently don't want to trade him, but stay tuned July 31st if they're struggling in 4th or 5th place

CF / OF options:

Any option will be in a trade. There are no free agents to fit the bill, and the farm system isn't an option yet (Stern is a 4th OF at best right now). The other issue is that they are probably trying to get a leadoff combo a la Johnny Damon. Otherwise, Youkilis is your leadoff guy (OBP of .367 & .400 last 2 seasons). Here's a look at the possible options:

Dave Roberts - remains the most likely, especially if Wells gets traded to the left coast

Jeremy Reed - Seattle may be asking for too much, or just unwilling to part with him

Coco Crisp - Cleveland will probably hold onto him

Torii Hunter - Twins not letting go

Ken Griffey Jr. - no way the Sox pin their hopes on this injury waiting to happen

Sammy Sosa - may be able to sign him to a non roster deal - why not? He's got something to prove, and could be a 4th OF at worst.


David Wells:

Clubs have not been offering fair value in return. Apparently he is aware of the situation as the Sox have communicated to him in the offseason. The big question is will he retire if he doesn't get traded?

Tony Graffanino:

Sox were surprised when he accepted arbitration, as they were looking for draft compensation when he signed elsewhere. He's the most expendable as the Sox will most likely deal him close to or during spring training.

Manny Ramirez:

Welcome back to Boston. Move to the suburbs, and keep your lip zipped.


Intangibles:

Injuries always occur in spring training, which the Sox must be counting on. Throw in the World Basball Classic (March 5th - 20th), and now the chances of injury more than double. What will happen to guys who normally try to peak performance EVERY YEAR in late March? Now they will be ready a MONTH EARLY. Will they over or under train? Patience may pay big dividends. So pray for 2B & pitchers to go down.

At least we know one of the better minds & dealmakers is back in the fold full time...

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

"Give management some credit on this one. They essentially admitted they were wrong, or at least took a long enough look at themselves and decided to change. How often do you encounter a business willing to do this? "

Amen. This is something I've been trying to get across to all the Yankees fans and other naysayers about this entire thning. How refreshing! They knew getting Theo back was the right move, they sucked it up and they did it.

Anonymous said...

Cyn, Watchout. The "Staff" is critical of spelling errors!