State of the Nation... with six weeks to Pitchers & Catchers

The offseason started with a bang landing Beckett. It appeared that the loss of Theo was not as dramatic as previously thought. But since then, the Sox have made, and not made, several puzzling moves. Lucchino has taken most of the heat as the Nation's impatience is growing by the day. Most teams have wrapped up their offseason moves. There are only 6 weeks until pitchers & catchers report. 6 WEEKS! Most quality free agents are gone. Here's a look into why uneasiness is settling in:

Renteria: Although most of the Nation was glad to see him go, most of us were more than surprised in what we got in return. All the more troubling is that no apparent plan was there to replace him BEFORE the trade was final. Is Alex Cora your starter?

Damon: We weren't shocked to see him leave, surprised maybe. The Sox basically made an offer they could live with and refused to overpay. Damon bolted for the cash. This is painful in the short term, but really is a good decision in the long term. But how good is the $13M going to look in Damon's final year at 36?

Here's a great article by Peter Gammons which sheds some light on management:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=2278930

Basically, he thinks that if Theo had stayed, very little would be different. He also noted that management has made every effort to fill each hole, and that the Manny fiasco has held up decision making. He applauds them for not making a bad signing in favor of making a "splash". They didn't bend on Millwood (31, arm issues, wanted 5 yrs), and the Rangers did. Sox have also held fast on Wells & Manny, refusing to get 50 cents on the dollar for returns.

It appears that they are starting to focus more on youth. According to Gammons, the biggest difference in philosophy between Theo & Lucchino is that Theo was moving towards younger players & more defense. Lucchino would rather throw money at superstars ("never give up on superstars") - he was a big believer in bringing Pedro back believe it or not. Looks like he has backed off that notion now.

Next season, you'll have a potential of 3 starters under 26 - Beckett, Papelbon, and Lester (probably August / Sept). The pen is also loaded with young talent - Hansen, Delcarmen, and Martinez. Also a list of players yet to make an impact: 1B Youkilis (26), 2B Pedroia (22), 3B Marte (22), OF Stern (25), & C Shoppach (25). Sox also have 7 of the top 100 draft choices coming up, with a number of solid prospects in A, and AA moving up.

The areas to infuse youth remain in the OF, with Trot (31) and Manny (33). Now it's apparent why the Sox were so high on Jeremy Reed (24). The current holes to fill, CF & SS, will more than likely be 1yr stopgaps at this point until a younger option is found. Don't discount the trading deadline either...

So where are they?

Rotation - as it stands now (wins projected in parenthesis) :

Schilling (16)
Beckett (16)
Wake (12)
Clement (10)
Arroyo /
Papelbon (12+)

That's 66 wins at modest projections. 2004 starters had 67 & the team won 95 games with the worst pen in the AL...

Pen - should be vastly improved. The additions of Mota, Seanez, and probably something in return for Wells (lefty?) alone make it better. Another year of maturity for Hansen & Delcarmen, and newcomer Martinez should make it one of the better ones in the AL. The real key is Foulke, which could make it dominating...

Defense - The infield was the biggest concern last season. A small upgrade at 3B, slight upgrade at 2B, anything is better than 30 errors at SS, and 1B should be solid. CF will be the only weaker spot, but at least the arm is an upgrade. Overall it should be better. Not to mention 3 strikeout pitchers in Schilling, Beckett, and Papelbon.

Offense - There are still holes in CF & SS - but not a shortage of bodies. Stern is not the best option in CF, but is available. The Sox love Cora, and probably won't give up Marte to get Lugo at SS. Youkilis should provide 15HR & 80RBI and if Mike Lowell has an improvement over his worst year (#'s were same as Mueller by the way), they get more production than 2005. Same case applies at 2B where Bellhorn was inept for most of the season, and Trot has been injury ridden the last 2 seasons (only 13HR, 67RBI). The biggest issue is leadoff, but the Sox may have an answer in Youkilis, and they expect another patient presence around .400 OBP. He'll eat up pitches and force the pitcher to throw strikes. Since when has it been the Sox style to run by the way? So is speed that much of an issue?

We must come to grips that the offense will not be where it was the past few seasons. It won't have the huge dropoff people may think. Note that the Chisox were 13th in the majors last season in runs scored. The Sox won't fall that far down with Ortiz & Manny in the lineup. Production at 1B, 2B, 3B, and RF will probably increase. Stable #'s should come from LF, DH, & C. The only questions remain at CF (10HR, 75RBI, 117 Runs) & SS (8HR, 70RBI, 100 Runs).

Even if the Sox lose 140 runs from last season, they still remain in the top 10 in the majors. The starting rotation should be able to carry them thru the tough stretches. The pen should be able to pick up the rotation. This team should win 90+ games. The big factors are Schilling, Foulke, and the trade deadline.

Don't worry Sox Nation, things aren't as bad as they seem...