Tuesday, May 30, 2006

The Clemens factor...


What will Roger do? At the very least, he is the master of building up the cash flow. So you know he'll get a ridiculous sum wherever he lands, probably the equal of a $20m season.

Here's the most recent outlook for his destinations:

Texas Rangers
Nope. Sorry Ranger fans, if he stays in Texas it won't be with you. 0% chance

New York Yankees
Money will not be the only driving force which is the Yankees best hope. He makes them a better team, but not dominant. An inconsistent Unit with a banged up squad getting older by the minute doesn't make them overwhelming favorites. 10% chance

Red Sox
Clemens makes this team dominant. A rotation of Schill, Beckett, Clemens, Wake, (and insert any #5) is the best rotation in the majors. Back that with MLB's best defense, best closer, and a solid offense, and October looks very bright. Throw in the relationship with Sox pitching coach & close friend Nipper, ability to break the tie with Cy Young, retire his #, and to wrap up his career where it all began are the other major factors. 30% chance

Houston
They are the clear favorites. His current relationship with his hometown team, including all the perks (right down the street from home, no travel unless pitching, son is in the organization, future job in the organization, etc) are difficult to overcome. Having his best buddy Pettite on the squad, pitching in the much easier NL (era of 2+ instead of 3+), and having to live in Houston when he "retires" will probably make him stay. The only factor not working in their favor is that they are a .500 team right now and Clemens alone may not be able to take them to the World Series. 60% chance

Here are some of the questions/factors he may be grappling with:

Best chance to win a world series (Red Sox)
Performance in AL vs NL (Houston)
Life after baseball (Houston)
Current relationships (Houston)
Place in history/milestones (Red Sox)
Intangibles/convenience (Houston)

He's probably made his choice already but is just driving up the price. It's going to be really difficult for him to pass on Houston. It comes down to what he wants most. Money is not a factor as he'll get paid what he wants by any team. The fans may only affect his thinking in Houston (he may not pitch vs Boston or NY in opposing stadiums anyway, or if so - only once). We'll hear many different reports in the next 2 weeks, but don't believe any of them.

Let's just hope his decision comes quickly...

3 comments:

Staff said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Staff said...

Way to go Newsday. Nothing like verifying a source...

Let the rumor mill begin...

Staff said...

OK. That was quick...