Yanks are shoring up their rotation...

The Yanks finally pulled the trigger on the poor man’s Matsuzaka. Lefty Kei Igawa reportedly signs a 5 year deal worth $20M before incentives. That’s on top of a posting bid of $26M which now seems inexpensive compared to what the Sox paid. Noting the market for pitching is scarce, the Yanks still get a great deal. The luxury tax hit is only $4M, and his actual pricetag is just over $9M. However, you get what you pay for. Scouting reports project him to be a #4 or #5 starter at best. So the Yanks are essentially gambling $9M per season for a #4 guy. Based on Gil Meche or Ted Lilly dollars, they essentially get similar talent for a couple million less per season. With their resources, there isn’t much of a downside. We’ll find out how he reacts to the pressures of NY. He hasn’t had the same exposure and media frenzy as Matsuzaka.

The Yanks also inked Pettite (based on passing a physical) for a one year $16M deal. At 35, he’s not the same pitcher who left the AL back in 2003. He struggled through injuries in 2004 (15 games / 3.90 ERA), but had a nice bounce back year in 2005 (ERA of 2.39 was his best since 2002).

But 2006 was also a struggle with a 14-13 record, 4.20 ERA, 27 HR’s, with 238 hits in 214 innings. Not the greatest pedigree when switching back to the AL. The Yanks will hope he’s a solid #3, but don’t count on his numbers improving over last season.

The probable rotation and projections:

Wang: 18-5, 3.40 ERA
Mussina: 13-10, 4.50 ERA
Pettite: 12-12, 4.90 ERA
Johnson: 14-11, 4.85 ERA
Igawa: 7-9, 5.50 ERA
Hughes: 3-3, 3.90 ERA

Wang had a terrific 2006 and will be the staff’s anchor. He still has a way to go to become a true #1 guy. His 233 hits in 218 innings are far from being dominant, and his 52 BB compared with his 76 K’s are equally average. At 27, he has the potential to get better. He should improve on his 3.63 ERA in 2007.

Mussina had a career year in 2006 and carried the team on his back last season. His 3.51 ERA was outstanding, but at 38 don’t expect him to duplicate it. The oft injured pitcher pitched in 32 games, his most since 2002. Expect another visit from the injury bug in 2007.

Johnson will be 44 in 2007 and really showed his age in 2006. His ERA of 5.00 was not reflected on his record of 17-11. He was inconsistent all of last season. He didn’t finish well either, giving up 5 runs a game in his last 4 including the playoffs. With off season back surgery, he’ll struggle to stay healthy once again.

Carl Pavano is the ultimate bust. The only thing you can count on is another injury. Poor bastard. However, Yanks management has planned to not have him available, so anything you may get is gravy. But remember that the gravy has lumps.

Philip Hughes is apparently a rising star on the horizon. He went 10-3 with a 2.25 ERA in AA Trenton. He’ll need more seasoning, having pitched only 116 innings, but he may contribute late in 2007.

Will Roger Clemens pitch in 2007? If so, his buddy Pettite will make a strong push to get it done. Although Houston has some dough to spend with Pettite and Bagwell (including insurance claim) off the books. We’ll see if he will choose “loyalty” (perks at home) over more dollars. The wildcard is Boston if they have an injury in June/July.

Overall the Yanks have a fairly solid rotation. Wang should be terrific once again. The big question revolves around the health of the geriatrics. Johnson, Mussina, and Pettite are all on the back 9 of their careers with history of injuries. Igawa is an unknown and hasn’t faced the pressure and media scrutiny of NY. Pavano is like a “box of chocolates” at this point. Still, if this rotation stays somewhat healthy, they should produce over 70 wins especially with a potent offense. Expect another close race in 2007.

Sox land the beast from the East!!!

Welcome to Boston Daisuke!!!

The Sox landed what could be their franchise player. In the process, they also defeated the mighty Scott Boras. That’s almost as satisfying as landing Matsuzaka.

DOWN GOES BORAS! DOWN GOES BORAS!

The Sox front office was masterful in their negotiations. They held their ground and stuck with their original offer. Boras, the baseball anti-christ, played his only hand which was to not negotiate and to threaten to bring his client back to Japan. However, Seibu was in financial trouble and supposedly told Matsuzaka they would not be posting him in 2007, effectively making him wait two more seasons to be a free agent. Add in the pressure of family, friends, and fans back home, it was probably an easy choice for Matsuzaka. Whether he told Boras to make the deal is something we’ll never know, but it’s most likely what transpired.

Will he be the top of rotation guy here like he was in Japan? To take a page from Parcells, let’s not anoint him just yet. However, all the scouting reports are more than glowing, and Craig Shipley (Sox scout) watched him pitch every game last season. The fact that they were willing to pony up $51M speaks volumes.

It is a gamble, especially since he’s never thrown a pitch in the majors. But you have to figure that a significant part of that posting price will be recovered from new revenue sources. All of Japan will be watching (and buying #18 merchandise) when the season starts. His first pitch in the majors will be against Ichiro, and he will face Matsui a number of times each season. When you factor in the posting price with salary, he’s still less than Jason Schmidt / Mike Mussina money at a little over $17M per year. His annual salary (and luxury tax impact) is only $8.7M, which is less than Gil Meche, Ted Lilly, and even Matt Clement. He’s going to be good in the majors, and he’s still worth the money even if he only becomes your #2 guy. If he meets his incentives, its money well spent and averages only $1.3M per season. So, how much of a gamble are they really taking?

The Sox really pulled this one off. Has the front office redeemed itself? That will be determined on the field, but things look promising.

Will Boston be the land of the Rising Gun?

With only hours to go before the deadline, we're hearing all sorts of chatter. From the talks being dead to the Sox upping the ante and making a substantive offer, what do you pay attention to?

It's all been about posturing to this point in the "negotiations". Negotiations? With the Sox submitting a reported $7-$8M per year offer, Boras has simply not countered. He's only stated in a press conference that his player is worth in the neighborhood of $100M over 5 or 6 years. He feels that Matsuzaka should be paid like a top 5 MLB experienced starter. But at $16M+ a season, he's been smoking some strong stuff. Include the posting price of $51M, his annual salary would equal $25M per season. Right. Que up Aerosmith's Dream On...

The Scott Boras angle:

Top 5 pitching talent
Worth $16M+ per season
Posting pricetag of $51M should not be a factor
Ichiro was MVP caliber his first season and is still underpaid
No counteroffer - at least until things get very tense
Keep Matsuzaka away from potential pressures - home, fans, Seibu & the press
Provide favorable "contract info" only to Matsuzaka
He cares about the almighty dollar only, he has no conscience
No thought regarding the impact on the player
He can blame the posting system as being flawed

The Sox angle:

He's an unproven MLB talent
There are cases of failure (see Irabu, aka the Fat Toad)
Posting pricetag is absolutely part of the deal
They put the "full court press" on this guy - over bidding, Lucchino trip to Japan
Guarantee a certain amount, the rest in incentives (unproven commodity)
Boras has less leverage - no other teams are bidding
Matsuzaka said "sayonara" to Seibu and Japanese fans
Returning to Japan because of greed will not endear him to the fans
Seibu needs cash to stay solvent and competitive
"Honor" is a driving force for both Matsuzaka and Seibu
Last minute trip to meet Boras saves face for future Japanese player deals


Who's going to blink first?

Every party wants to get this deal done, but on their own terms. Whoever has the most to lose will blink first. That will probably be Matsuzaka. Why?

It's been his dream to play in the majors. He's said his farewell to the fans of Japan and Seibu. He will lose face if he returns to Seibu. The Japanese fans will take exception to him being greedy, Seibu will struggle financially, and may even be "forced" to cut his salary. It would be very ugly for him to return. In the end, he may need to tell Boras to accept a reasonable offer.

The Sox are sitting in an interesting position. They positioned themselves to be the good guys by posting a huge amount, sending Lucchino to Japan, and now upping the ante in person at Boras's doorstep. So if the deal falls thru, Boras is the bad guy and Matsuzaka is either naive or greedy. Oh yeah, they also lose a potential top of the rotation starter. But with Lester apparently healthy, they may be able to push the need for a starter to 2008 after Schill is retired. There's always the Clemens angle, but he may decide to join Pettite in NY.

Scott Boras has nothing to lose. He doesn't care about anything other than his commission. While he has less leverage than normal, he still has enough. He knows that he can squeeze more money out of this in another year and even more after two when Matsuzaka is a true free agent. He also has "the posting system needs to be changed" out, to which he can become the "champion" of changing it. What the Sox also fear is that Boras is shielding his client from what is really going on. Does he know that Boras has not made a counter offer? Has Boras been saying the Sox offer is an insult? That's why the Sox brass have flown to LA in the hopes of speaking to Matsuzaka in person during negotiations. They hope his friends have been on the internet and are calling him as well.

Will he pitch in Boston in 2007?

At age 26, growing up within Japanese culture, conventional wisdom would indicate Matsuzaka's willingness to make a reasonable deal. It's likely the Sox have offered a $10-$11M annual deal which dwarfs his current $3M deal. Has Boras warped his thinking? Is he getting good or bad advice from somewhere else? We should know by tomorrow if Matsuzaka & Boras return to Boston for a physical.

We're guessing he'll be on the mound in Fenway the second week of Apr. You can bet that Sushi will make it's way as well, so bring your chopsticks...

Sox ink Drew and Lugo...

The winter meetings finally bear some fruit, and the Nation still retains our in-house "fruit" Manny. These two signings give the Sox a significant upgrade over last year.

If you say the Sox overpaid for both players, you're 100% correct. Neither will "live up to" their contract amount. Welcome to free agency in 2006. If you look at all the big free agent deals being signed, not many players will be worth their pricetag. You're going to see a number of high priced and mediocre pitching available at trading deadlines in the years to come. And you thought Matt Clement was expensive...


JD Drew

Sox get a significant upgrade in RF. He'll bring a .285 BA, 20+ HR, 100+ RBI, and .390+ OBP. He's a solid defender and now provides protection for Manny batting in the 5 spot. He makes a patient lineup even more patient, driving the pitch count even higher.

His rumored downside is that he's injury prone and has no drive. Let's take a look at his injuries:
2002 - 15 day DL (knee)
2003 - offseason surgery - started playing Apr 20th (knee), 15 day DL (oblique)
2004 - 8 games (neck/hamstring)
2005 - 5 games (knee), hit by pitch (broken wrist) in July - missed rest of season
2006 - 5 games (shoulder/quad)

Other than a broken wrist in 2005 his injuries are really minor. Yes, his career high is 146 games but that was also last season. In 2006 0nly 3 Sox players had more than 150 games played, and in 2005 only 4 (Damon had 148). Not so eye popping now, eh?

In terms of his drive and heart, who knows. There are sportswriters that don't like him and others like Gammons who praise him. But remember that he carried the offensive burden by himself in LA and the pressure that went with it. Now he's a #5 hitter with two of the best offensive forces in the majors hitting in front of him. Pressure is gone baby. He should thrive in Boston.

The other nagging question out there is why didn't they sign Damon last year. Should the Sox have known the market would be this pricey? Probably. So, is Drew worth the extra $2M per season? Probably not especially since Damon is a good leadoff man and he's now with your rival. But, the bottom line is that they landed the best player available. Just don't make the mistake of judging him on salary or if Damon is the better option. He's a solid productive player. Blame Theo for the faux pas, not him.


Julio Lugo

Theo's infatuation finally made it here. He's a good shortstop but have you ever understood the attraction? He's speedy and is a decent leadoff guy that will bring you a .275 BA, 10 HR, and 40 RBI. Apparently he's a high energy and good clubhouse guy as well. His numbers may also increase slightly with this lineup. However, expect to get about 20 errors out of him. Maybe you can attribute that to getting to more balls, but he's a still drop defensively over Gonzalez. Offensively he's an upgrade but mostly in consistency and batting average. At times, Gonzalez was a sure out last season. Overall they're better offensively and baserunning, but took a hit defensively. It looks pretty even on the surface, but management seems to be very high on him. They're definitely a better club with him despite the $9M pricetag.


The Sox still have some work to do, but their lineup is in good shape right now. Here's what you'll see on opening day if nothing changes:

Lugo
Crisp
Ortiz
Ramirez
Drew
Tech
Lowell
Youkilis
Pedroia

Don't forget about Wily Mo, Hinske, and Cora...

Next up: Pitching, pitching, pitching...