It's all been about posturing to this point in the "negotiations". Negotiations? With the Sox submitting a reported $7-$8M per year offer, Boras has simply not countered. He's only stated in a press conference that his player is worth in the neighborhood of $100M over 5 or 6 years. He feels that Matsuzaka should be paid like a top 5 MLB experienced starter. But at $16M+ a season, he's been smoking some strong stuff. Include the posting price of $51M, his annual salary would equal $25M per season. Right. Que up Aerosmith's Dream On...
The Scott Boras angle:
Top 5 pitching talent
Worth $16M+ per season
Posting pricetag of $51M should not be a factor
Ichiro was MVP caliber his first season and is still underpaid
No counteroffer - at least until things get very tense
Keep Matsuzaka away from potential pressures - home, fans, Seibu & the press
Provide favorable "contract info" only to Matsuzaka
He cares about the almighty dollar only, he has no conscience
No thought regarding the impact on the player
He can blame the posting system as being flawed
The Sox angle:
He's an unproven MLB talent
There are cases of failure (see Irabu, aka the Fat Toad)
Posting pricetag is absolutely part of the deal
They put the "full court press" on this guy - over bidding, Lucchino trip to Japan
Guarantee a certain amount, the rest in incentives (unproven commodity)
Boras has less leverage - no other teams are bidding
Matsuzaka said "sayonara" to Seibu and Japanese fans
Returning to Japan because of greed will not endear him to the fans
Seibu needs cash to stay solvent and competitive
"Honor" is a driving force for both Matsuzaka and Seibu
Last minute trip to meet Boras saves face for future Japanese player deals
Who's going to blink first?
Every party wants to get this deal done, but on their own terms. Whoever has the most to lose will blink first. That will probably be Matsuzaka. Why?
It's been his dream to play in the majors. He's said his farewell to the fans of Japan and Seibu. He will lose face if he returns to Seibu. The Japanese fans will take exception to him being greedy, Seibu will struggle financially, and may even be "forced" to cut his salary. It would be very ugly for him to return. In the end, he may need to tell Boras to accept a reasonable offer.
The Sox are sitting in an interesting position. They positioned themselves to be the good guys by posting a huge amount, sending Lucchino to Japan, and now upping the ante in person at Boras's doorstep. So if the deal falls thru, Boras is the bad guy and Matsuzaka is either naive or greedy. Oh yeah, they also lose a potential top of the rotation starter. But with Lester apparently healthy, they may be able to push the need for a starter to 2008 after Schill is retired. There's always the Clemens angle, but he may decide to join Pettite in NY.
Scott Boras has nothing to lose. He doesn't care about anything other than his commission. While he has less leverage than normal, he still has enough. He knows that he can squeeze more money out of this in another year and even more after two when Matsuzaka is a true free agent. He also has "the posting system needs to be changed" out, to which he can become the "champion" of changing it. What the Sox also fear is that Boras is shielding his client from what is really going on. Does he know that Boras has not made a counter offer? Has Boras been saying the Sox offer is an insult? That's why the Sox brass have flown to LA in the hopes of speaking to Matsuzaka in person during negotiations. They hope his friends have been on the internet and are calling him as well.
Will he pitch in Boston in 2007?
At age 26, growing up within Japanese culture, conventional wisdom would indicate Matsuzaka's willingness to make a reasonable deal. It's likely the Sox have offered a $10-$11M annual deal which dwarfs his current $3M deal. Has Boras warped his thinking? Is he getting good or bad advice from somewhere else? We should know by tomorrow if Matsuzaka & Boras return to Boston for a physical.
We're guessing he'll be on the mound in Fenway the second week of Apr. You can bet that Sushi will make it's way as well, so bring your chopsticks...
1 comment:
...will only result in dashed hopes in early October! As uaual with that one exception.
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