Yanks are shoring up their rotation...

The Yanks finally pulled the trigger on the poor man’s Matsuzaka. Lefty Kei Igawa reportedly signs a 5 year deal worth $20M before incentives. That’s on top of a posting bid of $26M which now seems inexpensive compared to what the Sox paid. Noting the market for pitching is scarce, the Yanks still get a great deal. The luxury tax hit is only $4M, and his actual pricetag is just over $9M. However, you get what you pay for. Scouting reports project him to be a #4 or #5 starter at best. So the Yanks are essentially gambling $9M per season for a #4 guy. Based on Gil Meche or Ted Lilly dollars, they essentially get similar talent for a couple million less per season. With their resources, there isn’t much of a downside. We’ll find out how he reacts to the pressures of NY. He hasn’t had the same exposure and media frenzy as Matsuzaka.

The Yanks also inked Pettite (based on passing a physical) for a one year $16M deal. At 35, he’s not the same pitcher who left the AL back in 2003. He struggled through injuries in 2004 (15 games / 3.90 ERA), but had a nice bounce back year in 2005 (ERA of 2.39 was his best since 2002).

But 2006 was also a struggle with a 14-13 record, 4.20 ERA, 27 HR’s, with 238 hits in 214 innings. Not the greatest pedigree when switching back to the AL. The Yanks will hope he’s a solid #3, but don’t count on his numbers improving over last season.

The probable rotation and projections:

Wang: 18-5, 3.40 ERA
Mussina: 13-10, 4.50 ERA
Pettite: 12-12, 4.90 ERA
Johnson: 14-11, 4.85 ERA
Igawa: 7-9, 5.50 ERA
Hughes: 3-3, 3.90 ERA

Wang had a terrific 2006 and will be the staff’s anchor. He still has a way to go to become a true #1 guy. His 233 hits in 218 innings are far from being dominant, and his 52 BB compared with his 76 K’s are equally average. At 27, he has the potential to get better. He should improve on his 3.63 ERA in 2007.

Mussina had a career year in 2006 and carried the team on his back last season. His 3.51 ERA was outstanding, but at 38 don’t expect him to duplicate it. The oft injured pitcher pitched in 32 games, his most since 2002. Expect another visit from the injury bug in 2007.

Johnson will be 44 in 2007 and really showed his age in 2006. His ERA of 5.00 was not reflected on his record of 17-11. He was inconsistent all of last season. He didn’t finish well either, giving up 5 runs a game in his last 4 including the playoffs. With off season back surgery, he’ll struggle to stay healthy once again.

Carl Pavano is the ultimate bust. The only thing you can count on is another injury. Poor bastard. However, Yanks management has planned to not have him available, so anything you may get is gravy. But remember that the gravy has lumps.

Philip Hughes is apparently a rising star on the horizon. He went 10-3 with a 2.25 ERA in AA Trenton. He’ll need more seasoning, having pitched only 116 innings, but he may contribute late in 2007.

Will Roger Clemens pitch in 2007? If so, his buddy Pettite will make a strong push to get it done. Although Houston has some dough to spend with Pettite and Bagwell (including insurance claim) off the books. We’ll see if he will choose “loyalty” (perks at home) over more dollars. The wildcard is Boston if they have an injury in June/July.

Overall the Yanks have a fairly solid rotation. Wang should be terrific once again. The big question revolves around the health of the geriatrics. Johnson, Mussina, and Pettite are all on the back 9 of their careers with history of injuries. Igawa is an unknown and hasn’t faced the pressure and media scrutiny of NY. Pavano is like a “box of chocolates” at this point. Still, if this rotation stays somewhat healthy, they should produce over 70 wins especially with a potent offense. Expect another close race in 2007.