Monday, July 25, 2005

Deadline stress? In Theo we trust

Worried about what will happen by Sun? Rest easy because Dan Duquette is running baseball camps, not the front office. Theo has a great track record so far - both in the offseason & past 2 deadlines. The Suppan / Saurbeck / Williamson deal looked like a coup at the time. Even the BK signing paid dividends - (removing "stone headed" Hillenbrand) and opening up 3rd for Mueller & DH/1B for Ortiz. The blockbuster Nomar deal ultimately brought them to the promised land.

Don't expect a blockbuster deal this year. There are so few sellers in the market right now. There are 10 AL & 8 NL teams within 5 games of the wildcard. There are no major impact players in the final year of their contract. The asking price for what is out there, is astronomical. The 2 most prominent rumors out there - Burnett & Schmidt - are not a big upgrade over what we have now. Maybe over Wade Miller, but not Arroyo who is rumored to be packaged. Note bad blood with Florida - remember Kevin Millar to Japan?

Is starting pitching the most glaring need? Not if an effective Schilling gets put back into it. That could be a few weeks away. Do they grab a "mid level" closer and use him until Foulke gets back in say early Sept? Do they trade for more bullpen help (Romero) or early call up from: Papelbon, Lester, Alvarez, or Delcarmen? We think that they will all be up in Sept anyway. Is there a better option out there - which is essentially a stop-gap until Sept callups? At what price? We don't need a bat - except maybe at first? Wouldn't be shocked to see Millar go. (Sweeney would be a nice pickup but Dmitri Young is not an upgrade)

The Sox finally have a teriffic farm system. Best that we can ever remember. Some say as many as 7 of the top prospects are untradeable unless they are blown away. The Yankees had their run of titles in late 90's by promoting the core of those teams thru the farm system. Can you imagine how much flexibility (payroll & young talent) the front office will have if those 7 make it to the majors? We expect the following on the roster next year: Pedroia, Hansen, Papelbon, Lester, and Delcarmen. Don't count out Hanley Ramirez, Abe Alvarez, Anibel Sanchez, and Cla Meredith. Note that some of these guys will be up in Sept anyway.

We think the list of "expendable" prospects to be shipped out are: Shoppach, Moss, Hyzdu, Murphy, Petagine, & Dinardo. Maybe get something back for Stern (rule 5) from Atlanta...

We'll be surprised if there is no activity, but expect a couple of random arms in the pen. More than likely guys we've never heard of. Sweeney is probably a long shot. Either way, I don't think we could be in better hands.

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