Sox look to assemble 2006 squad...

The Red Sox have been to the postseason the last 3 years, averaged 95 wins, and won a World Series. Amazing accomplishment in the history of the franchise. There are only a handful of teams to have similar success in recent memory. This past season they were able to win 95 games and get into the playoffs DESPITE major injuries to Schilling & Foulke. There were other injuries such as Trot, and horrible production from 1st & 2nd base. They also overcame one of the worst pens in the majors. If you take the staff ace and all star caliber closer off ANY team, how many would do what the Sox did? Not many. So take stock in the fact that they will continue success especially with a healthy team.

Here’s a look at position status & needs:

Starters:

Curt Schilling – will be 39, questions remain if he’ll fully bounce back from surgery. One of the most driven guys on the planet, and if anyone can do it, its him. He’s the key to next season.

David Wells – will be 43. Would like to be traded to the left coast – sounds like he’s tired of the spotlight. If he does return, his competitiveness will pull him thru. 15 game winners don’t grow on trees either.

Tim Wakefield – will be 40. Knucklers are timeless, so age not critical. Count on 12-15 wins…

Bronson Arroyo – will be 28. Solid #4 or 5. Will get you 12+ wins, somewhat inconsistent, but has been strong down the stretch the last 2 seasons.

Matt Clement – will be 29. He’s the biggest question mark. History of fading down the stretch continued, although that shot to the squash may have contributed. Lets hope he figures out a solution in the offseason, such as personal trainer / nutritionist.

Wade Miller – don’t expect to see this guy in uniform. Team probably won’t pick up the option ($4M?) especially if he won’t contribute until June. That’s too expensive a gamble.

Jonathan Papelbon – will be 25. Getting giddy just thinking about him. Very solid down the stretch, unbelievable amount of poise for a rook. Big question is where he starts off the season. If Wells or Arroyo are traded (for something other than pitching) he steps into the rotation. Otherwise, they probably keep him in Pawtucket to remain stretched out.

Trades:

Wells - asking for one.

Arroyo - has been named in several rumors – especially deadline deals

Clement – Sox may not have enough faith, willing to eat some salary in order to trade?



Free Agents:

AJ Burnett – tops list on several teams with resources (incl Yanks). Price will probably be too high

Kevin Millwood – not getting any younger

Jarrod Washburn – probably best option

Paul Byrd – had solid season at 3.75 ERA

Homegrown:

Jon Lester – lefty said to have better stuff than Papelbon. Wow. Wasn’t ready last season, but may contribute by mid-season. Double A pitcher of the year.

Abe Alvarez – should be able to make the leap next season. Will probably come out of the pen.

Lenny DiNardo – former rule 5 should have enough seasoning, was solid in few outings in Sept. Will likely be a spot starter.




Relief:

Timlin – rumored to have signed a 1 year deal

Foulke – 2 surgeries, but they didn’t fix his squash. Sox may try to unload him but must eat some salary.

Hansen – Should have a big role next season. The phenom showed flashes in his brief stint in the majors. Looks to be on big league roster in April.

Delcarmen – Young flamethrower got a taste of the bigs. Should have a more prominent role next season.

Trades:

Probably not many options here. You’re looking at mediocre talent unless a blockbuster happens

Free Agents:

BJ Ryan – Similar to AJ Burnett situation. Sox would love to have him, but won’t overpay

Billy Wagner – Only way Sox would consider is if Foulke is traded away, and Hansen is converted to a starter. He probably won’t sign a 1 year deal until Hansen is truly ready…

Tom Gordon – wants to be a closer. Will command too much money for a set-up guy. Looked spent at the end of last season.

Eddie Guardado – team expected to decline option. May want to be closer only.

Ugeuth Urbina – pricetag, bad blood will prevent return

Biggest area of concern…




1st Base:

Kevin Youkilis – solid glove, professional hitter, most likely a fill-in / platoon at first

John Olerud – they would be crazy not to bring him back, but depends on acquisition


Free Agency:

Paul Konerko – rumored as not wanting to play on east coast, pricetag up after Series

Lyle Overbay – looking at 15HR, 80RBI, .280avg – probably short money, best option

Trade:

Richie Sexson – If available. Other plausible possibilities have worse #’s than Overbay. Downside is that this is the only position to regain a bat if Manny is traded.



2nd Base:

Alex Cora – Actually had a decent run with .273 ba w/Sox. Only a role player at this point of career, can also play third & short.

Tony Graffanino – would love to see him return. Probably won’t sign a 1 year deal & platoon with Pedroia

Dustin Pedroia – Management very high on this guy. Similar player to David Eckstein. Should be competing for the starting job in April.


Free Agency / Trade:

No viable options out there. Better off with what they have, if not Graffanino



3rd Base:

Kevin Youkilis – solid glove, professional hitter, low salary, has had some big hits playing a limited role. Sox may want to see what he can do full time. Looks like the future at 3rd.

Bill Mueller – can’t say enough good things about him. Will demand a higher salary, and dollar difference may be bigger than the gap between him & Youkie. He filed for free agency on the first day – not a good sign for his return.


Short:

Edgar Renteria – face it folks, we have a $10M SS that hits .280, 10HR’s, and 80 RBI’s. It’s not going up. Let’s just hope his fielding percentage does.

Hanley Ramirez – waiting in the wings. Can’t believe he’s still only 21. Probably major league ready around mid-season. If he makes “the leap” the Sox would have to seriously consider dumping Renteria & eating some salary.



Outfield:

Manny Ramirez – this team is better off with him. Unless you get a stud pitcher (must be ace caliber) in return, there’s no way you do this. Despite his newest request for a trade, he's more than likely still here next season. This happens every July...

Trot Nixon – injury plagued, had offseason surgery. Has a relatively low salary. Can’t put a price on clubhouse presence. When healthy, he’s a 20HR, 80RBI, .285 hitter. With injury history, how much do you get in return? He’ll be back.

Johnny Damon – he’s been all over the place about how many years, hometown discount, bad agent, blah blah blah. Sox can replace a CF, but probably not a solid leadoff guy. They don’t grow on trees. Issue will be # of years – Damon wants 6 @ 33 years old. Not gonna happen here. Let’s hope they can get it done for 4 years around $10 per year (good sign is that he didn’t file for free agency yet). You know Steinbrenner is licking his chops.

Adam Stern – still needs about 20 games to satisfy rule 5 requirements. At least a year away from being a solid player. Couple other young guys still year & a half away at least.

Gabe Kapler – long shot to even make 2007 squad, not ready physically until Sept 2006

Free Agency:

Not much help out there. It’s a pretty thin crop.

Trade:

Torii Hunter – has reportedly put his house up for sale, because he believes he’ll be traded

Adam Dunn – was on Sox radar, but may have to give up too much to get him


Bottom Line:

This could be a dramatically different team next season. But, at least Catcher & DH are settled.

There will be changes at probably 3 of the 4 infield positions.

The outfield is a huge question mark. Can they come to an agreement with Damon? They will at least give it a shot. They probably won’t get enough in return for trading Manny. It will have to be at least a 3 team blockbuster in order for it to make sense. No way the Sox trade him just to get rid of him. He'll get over not being traded again if not.

They have 6 starters not counting Wade Miller. Someone will overpay AJ Burnett but not the Sox. They would have to get a stud for Manny & then move someone else – Wells, Clement, or Arroyo, and possibly some dead money on top of that. The most surprising stat? The 2004 starters amassed 73 wins. The 2005 staff (including Schill) had 70.

The pen is the biggest area of need (volume wise anyway). Who thinks Foulke can bounce all the way back? We’ll know if the Sox do soon enough. Although they have a couple of young arms in the mix, they still need proven veterans. There isn’t a long list to choose from.

The Sox have about $95 Million spent already. Assuming they match what they spent last season, that gives them roughly $30M to use. Here’s where we think it will go – provided Manny stays put:

1st: $5M – Overbay ($400k last yr) only 4 yrs in the league, 28yrs old. Will probably get better too…

2nd: $300,000 – Pedroia

3rd: $700,000 – Youkilis

Utility: $4M – Cora / Machado / Stern / OF or RH bat

Center: $11M – Johnny Damon

Pen: $6M – Need at least 3 veterans. May turn to Hansen as closer (see Huston Street)

Dead Money: $3M – Foulke / Clement / other – if traded (for each of next 2-3 years)



You know Theo (presuming he is re-signed on Monday) will get the job done. This all changes if Manny gets moved. It should be an active Hot Stove season. We will be providing updates at least weekly, and hopefully more depending on information coming in.

Coming Next – State of the Yankees…