Sox trade Arroyo for Wily Mo...

The Sox move one of their most popular players and cash for a part time outfielder. Our first response was "What?" We've heard the name Wily Mo Pena, but never associated him with the better outfielders in the game. Throw in the emerging Adam Stern, the solid Spring Training by non roster invitee Dustin Mohr (righty bat), and the minor league signing of Juan Gone, and further questions arise.



There were rumors that the Sox were in talks with Cincinnati, but they involved Clement, not Arroyo. He was apparently stunned when he heard the news. After all, he did take a below market 3 year offer to try and stay in Boston. It's really unfortunate that this type of thing happens. Players should be applauded, and rewarded, for this type of loyalty. But reality is that they are commodities. Tell us this situation won't come up in the next contract negotiation with every team. Prices just went up folks, and hometown discounts just became more rare...



Who was the winner in this deal? At first glance, Cincinnati. They get a proven starter with a rubber arm who won 14 games, all at a price of less than $3M per season. They had to give up a part time outfielder to do so. How do you not make this deal if you are Cincinnati coming off the worst ERA in the majors? No brainer. He's probably their #2 starter...



Sox get a 24 yr old outfielder who can play all 3 positions. His power numbers are outstanding - hitting 45 HR in 2 part time seasons, and has an .881 OPS vs lefties (Manny's is .885) - which is when he'll replace Trot . He's very athletic but is still fairly raw. At only 24, he's still learning, and plate discipline will be his biggest lesson. He has plenty of time to rid himself of bad habits, and his best years are still in front of him. Give round 1 to Cincy, but long term goes to the Sox.



Upside

• Pena is only 24, inexpensive, and under control for several years
• His skills should improve
• Still raw, but not too old to change bad habits - plate discipline
• Should hit 20 HR as part time OF (they don't grow on trees)
• Backup for: Trot, Coco, Manny, & Ortiz
• Forces Trot to have a monster contract year
• OF of the future (next to their 26 yr old CF)
• Short term option at 1B if Lowell struggles? (Youkie back to 3rd)

Downside

• Lose a 14 game winner
• Lose 200+ inning pitcher & bullpen flexibility
• Trot to free agency at year end - leadership presence

Overall it looks promising. As much as we hate to see Arroyo go, his 4.51 ERA wasn't exactly stellar. He was 10th in the league in quality starts, and rung up 14 wins. Arguably he was one of the best 5th starters. But with Schill, Beckett, Wake, Wells, Clement, Papelbon, and a rising Lester, he became expendable.



The key measuring stick is: Are the Sox better? The short answer is yes. They have plenty of depth in the OF, also gaining a power right handed bat. With Arroyo slated for the pen anyway, they still have plenty of depth in the rotation. Pena is still somewhat raw, but now has teachers in Papa Jack & Ortiz to bring him along. He also has the benefit of a stronger lineup around him. He is inexpensive and could be the new RF in 2007, decreasing age and payroll significantly. You could easily be looking at a 40HR 100+ RBI guy. He is a project, but if the Sox can teach him to prepare and be more disciplined, look out. There's a new Mo in town...

Spring Training rolling along...

Things have been very quiet across the Florida camp. Amazing how the storm of the offseason is a distant memory now. Good news is the Sox finally rewarded Francona with a 2 year extension. Well deserved & congrats to Terry.
-
For those of you panicking about spring training stats, cool your jets. There isn't a pitcher on the staff who has thrown a TOTAL of 9 innings yet. Keep in mind that they are tinkering with deliveries. Papelbon, for example, threw mostly fastballs to work on something. We also heard that a relief pitcher was booed recently. Are you freakin kidding us? Just stop. This goes for Mike Lowell as well. The talk of his "slow bat" & "slow body" is a load of you know what. Do you really want to take the bat out of his hands before the season starts? Lame.
-
The WBC seems to be a real success at this point. It's actually enjoyable to watch teams & fans from the Carribean & Asia. The only real causalty right now is Damon's shoulder (tendinitis). You know Georgie boy is steaming about this one. The Yanks new CF is only able to pinch run. No batting and no throwing. His doctor stated he'd be ready for the start of the season. Still feel that bad about not signing him?
-
Speaking of signings, Pedro continues to have issues with the toe. He's been very forthcoming about the cortisone injections from all of last season & the playoffs in Boston. Surprisingly, he's thrown out the word "surgery" a little too often. Uh oh. A Clement & Graffanino package might yield the Sox some nice dividends...
-
Pedroia had a disappointing shoulder injury. We would have loved to see him in action to see what he could do. Interestingly, his counterpart a step behind in the minors, SS Lowrie, is having a fantastic spring. Maybe Lowrie to Pedroia will be the double play combo in 2007 and beyond...
-
Sox only have a couple of issues. Wells has yet to throw in a game, but they are being deliberate with him. Great news that he rescinded his trade request - it gives the Sox more options. Apparently the Sox are exploring catcher options. Bard is just OK & they may try to deal with the Rangers. Stay tuned. In the meantime, enjoy the WBC, forget about spring training stats, and get warmed up for April. And good luck with your brackets!!!

"New" Manny lands in camp, WBC kicks off

Don't look now folks, but Manny made it. And he appears to have grown up some. It's on a rare occasion that he handles himself in a professional manner in front of the camera off the field. But he actually made lucid and surprisingly candid statements to the press yesterday. The soon to be 34 year old reflected on his career and noted he didn't want to screw it up. He handled the press like a seasoned vet. Maybe it wasn't Schillingesque, but more so than we've seen out of him in the past.
-
Does he truly get it now? Doubtful, but at least he's taking steps in the right direction. And if actions do in fact speak louder than words, his offseason conditioning should speak volumes. A much trimmer Manny showed up in camp. He hired a new personal trainer in the offseason to help address the hamstring problems he has year after year.
-
Manny also stated he would not participate in the WBC. He didn't want to make a fool out of himself by not being able to play at a high level. He stated he wanted to get ready for the season and that the WBC would hinder his progress. Thats not the statement of a carefree or freespirited flake.
-
We're not naive enough to think that he mysteriously transformed into a Cal Ripken or John Olerud in the offseason. It's only a matter of time before he slips into a "Manny moment". However, we've finally seen flashes of what we hoped was behind the hitting machine. Maybe he's finally seen the light. Well, judging by the new hairdo, he still may have a ways to go. Let's just hope that translates into less Manny being Manny...
-
The WBC is getting under way shortly. We think the overall concept is great, especially since baseball was removed from the Olympics. The timing is what we don't like. This entire tournament will be re-assessed once injuries occur - which they will. If a major star, or stars, go down before the start of the regular season, you can bet money on the fact that this will get scrapped next year.
-
There are too many downsides to this happening in March. Every GM is holding their breath right now. Is there a better timeframe to hold it? Midseason around the all-star break? You would have to decrease the 162 game season, or start it earlier. Great, March in Boston is not too cold. Late October after the World Series? Not much interest from players exhaused from the season. The only viable timeline is to replace winter ball. But, the same issues of injuries exist. It's a fantastic idea conceptually, but its not practical.
-
Players will break down this season. You may hear rumblings in Sept that they peaked too early in March. This will affect pitchers more than position players. You know once they get on the mound to represent their country, adrenaline will kick in. Even if they are on a pitch count, they will probably fire the ball harder because they are only throwing a limited number. As exciting as it may be, lets hope it's not a nightmare.
-
A recent ESPN poll asked users who would win the WBC. Of 50K+ pollers, 49% said the US would win, followed by the Dominican at 38%. The interesting thing is that only the New England states & Maryland had more Dominican votes than US votes. Look out for Venezuela and the winner of the Asia pool. Remember that this is a one game elimination tournament, and anything can happen. Lets just hope it's all good...

Spring Training tidbits...

The Manny Chronicles continue. It certainly didn't take long for Manny being Manny to make an appearance. His reluctance to show up with his teammates isn't a good sign. He's showing up on March 1st. Why? Because the MLB CBA requires him to. Reporting dates are set by the individual teams, but players are not required to show until March 1st. The good news? He's not playing in the WBC, not as of today anyway. The Dominican manager hasn't been able to contact him either. At least he's unresponsive to everyone. And Manny, if you don't want the media attention, pull a Ricky Williams. Otherwise, get to camp, lace up your cleats, and quit your whining. March 1st is going to be "Ringling Bros, Barnum & Manny" time...
-
You've got to love Terry Francona. Everyone has different opinions about the day to day decisions (without knowing the circumstances or reasoning behind them by the way), but he doesn't get enough credit. He continues to take heat for his players. Manny is the latest, and Wells is the other. Francona is way too underappreciated in Boston. Here's a perspective:
-
Picture walking into a locker room. Your health sucks and it hurts just to walk. You've got salsa music blaring in the background. Manny is only wearing a do-rag and one sock, dancing. Big Papi is dancing but has his back to Manny unaware. Millar is in motormouth mode in the corner talking to the press about not playing. The media is in your face about yesterday's lineup, today's lineup, why didn't you try to steal second, why you didn't bunt, how much they water the infield, when injured players are returning, young players performances in Single A, and expiring contracts. You get "advice" in truckloads of "fan mail". Then Pedro knocks on your office door and wants to go home early for the break. Then Manny wants his day off even though you're short a player. Your team just played like crap at home, multiple injuries occured, and some reporter wants to ask you why everything sucks so bad, during post game interviews. You coach in one of the biggest media markets, have one of the highest payrolls, and get paid near the bottom of the league. You work everyday from 9am to 11pm.
-
Holy crap. Who in their right mind would sign up for that? For $350k? What a bargain for the Sox. Oh and by the way, he has a World Series under his belt...
-
Georgie Boy just couldn't help himself. In his latest faux-pas, he's declared the Yankees will win the World Series this year. Nothing like heaping more pressure on your own team. Nothing like adding more stress and wear & tear on those aging bodies. So, thanks George. The Nation appreciates your efforts. And special thanks from us - the "YEAR 2000!" campaign continues to gain steam...
-
Damon looks good in pinstripes. But not to most Yankee fans. We've heard many commentaries, but there is one that stands out amoung the rest. Referring to Damon's performance in game 7 of the ALCS: "It's like someone sleeping with your wife, then having him marry your sister." Enjoy Johnny everyone!
-
The latest Pedro rumors have him missing the initial part of the WBC. We'd actually be surprised to see him pitch at all, especially since he hasn't been able to throw off the mound yet. Very interesting tidbit from last week was that his "toe" has been an issue since the playoffs in 2004. Apparently he was administered cortisone during those playoffs, and it was a recurring issue in 2005. So it sounds like the "special shoe" has been in the works for a while. Surprising that it's only been reported now. Remember too that the Mets shut him down early last year once they were out of it. Makes Sox management look smart by not re-signing him. Not sure he has another 3 years left...
-
Special note: Condolences to the family of Curt Gowdy. The sportscasting legend was 86 and will be truly missed.

Signs of Spring, Finally...

Well, it's only a day before pitchers & catchers report. Always get a little excited this time of year. It's very different since the spring of 2004, when "wait till next year" finally evaporated. This will also be a very different spring in that there were so many changes in the offseason. The infield has been completely revamped which will undoubtedly change one of the league's weakest into one of the strongest. The acquisiton of Beckett and the rise of Papelbon makes us giddy just thinking about it, not even considering the up and coming lefty Lester waiting in AAA. The bullpen is very deep and has the potential to be one of the best in the majors.

There are many questions to be answered before the season starts, but overall, this should be an improved club over the 2005 version. Is it good enough to win in October? On paper it is. But as we all know, they have to play the games. Pitching & defense wins championships, and the Sox improved both. Many things will shake out in Spring Training...
-

Health:

-
Schilling - can he regain the form of 2004? Probably not, but we think he'll be close. According to reports, he's slimmed down & was able to get back to his old routines. Never count out anyone with the amount of determination he has...
Beckett - Will this be his first season of 180-200 innings? Reportedly, he cut his offseason workouts in half. He's only 26, so the ability to bounce back is very high. Frankly, we're more worried about the blisters. We predict around 30 starts & 18 wins...
Foulke - We are not as concerned as everyone else seems to be. Even if he is horrible, you have Papelbon & ultimately Hansen to fill the role. Timlin faired well last year too...
Trot - Similar to Schill, reports say that he is in great shape. If he does stumble, look for Theo to deal him in July as he is in a contract year.
Unknown - There is always an injury. Add in the WBC, along with 7 or 8 Sox starters, and chances have doubled. Let's hope if there is an injury, the depth the Sox have will cover it...
-
Offense:
Youkilis - We think he is poised for a breakout year. He's ready. We're projecting .280, 15HR, 80RBI in platoon with JT Snow. If he can put up 5HR & 20 RBI, they're at the top of the league.
Lowell - No telling how he will rebound. We think he'll be better. Remember that Mueller's #'s were virtually the same as Lowell last season. Anything higher is gravy...
Overall - There will be a drop off in production, no question. However, they should still score plenty of runs. A significant drop from last year still puts them in the top 5 offensively. Ask the White Sox how that worked out last season...
-
Intangibles:
How will Crisp handle the pressure in Boston? According to reports, he might thrive in it. He apparently likes the big stage. The best part is he's only 26 and will get better. He may be an all- star by year 2.
What is the personality of this club? It will take time to develop. The characters keeping things light are mostly gone. From all reports, the new guys all have solid character. If nothing else, they will be professional. Chemistry will grow from winning, which they should do. They also have Schilling as a lightning rod if things go south.
-
Outlook:
You have to be optomistic right now. The offense won't be as goliath as it has been, but that's the bad news. Pitching and defense are both improved, and thats what it takes in Oct. Even if some players don't rebound or meet expectations, this team has enough talent to carry them. Unless they are decimated with injuries, we're in for a good ride in 06. And don't forget the GM mantra:
Assess what you have in April, evaluate until July, and add pieces before Aug. Oh yeah, and "In Theo we Trust"...

Rocket to make final launch in Boston?

Don't count on it folks. But apparently the front office is making the push for it. Supposedly they put together a video of fans pleading for his return, and highlights of his career in a Boston uniform. We wouldn't be surprised if they included the standing ovation he received at Fenway in a Yankee uniform during his last "retirement".
-
Does it make the team better with him? Can he pitch in the AL again? We think so. He had a masterful season in 2005. Add 1 1/2 runs to his ERA from last year and he's still only at 3.50ERA. He's pitched 200 innings & 30 starts in multiple seasons with one exception - 2002 with NY. It's safe to predict an ERA around 3 with 15+ wins. A Schilling, Clemens, Beckett trio? Wow.
-
Money - There is talk that the Sox would have to jettison payroll to meet a predicted $18M salary. It would put payroll around $150M. Sox would probably bite the bullet here. Adding him would increase the brand name. They probably don't recover the cost in the first couple years, and you are naive if you think they would lose money.
-

Golf or baseball? We'll know soon...

Clubhouse - You can just hear Schilling biting his tongue in Arizona. Will Clemens get the same conditions as Houston - no travel unless he's pitching? The only one who won't notice is Manny. Hopefully Theo asked the team before actively pursuing this one...
-
Intangibles - Significant buzz would be created wherever he pitched. Fans would line up to see his last start ever at their ballpark. Signing on with Boston would signify he wanted to end where it all started. Imagine the merchandising $ in the Boston fan base alone. They can stick it to the Yankees, and the rivalry is stoked to a new level. What will the atmosphere be like during his first game back at Fenway, and New York? Wow...
-
We'd love to see this deal get done. There are several reasons why he should return. Do they outweigh his other options? Doubtful. He's reached every milestone including pitching at "home". Now it comes down to where he wants to end it. Let's hope it's where it all started...

If it wasn't so funny...

We wouldn't have posted it. But the Manny trade talks have resurfaced...
-
Apparently the front office is making sure that Manny thinks they are really trying hard to move him.
-
The latest uh, um, "deal" with the Angels would have the Sox send Manny for the following:
-
1) Ervin Santana - 23yr old rising star (remember 5+ innings of relief vs Yanks in ALDS?)
2) Chone Figgins - .290, 8HR, 57RBI - one of fastest guys in MLB
3) 2 or 3 of their top 4 prospects - including highly touted SS Brandon Wood (43HR 122 RBI in AAA last season)
4) Most of Manny's remaining salary
-
Well, we want Johnny "Don't call me Cash" Damon's new Ferrari, and we'll trade him an NYchoker for it. Our deal has a better chance of happening...
-
And don't expect Enrique Wilson to make the squad. He's there as a "binky" to help Manny from being Manny in Spring Training. Especially with Cora, Graffanino, Pedroia, and Machado all ahead of him on the depth chart...
-
But here's an interesting twist. Pretend you're the GM for the Angels for a second. Do you seriously consider doing this - with these options:
-
1) Angels include Santana, Figgins, and Wood only
2) Sox add Wells (gets his west coast wish), Graffinino, and Delcarmen
3) Sox pick up some salary
-
Not so far fetched now?

Spring Training roster is set...

Finally. At long offseason last, the Nation knows what to expect. Well, kind of. There is depth at the middle of the infield, in the rotation, and even in the pen. But with every spring training, there are injuries. Throw in the World Baseball Classic in March, and you've dramatically increased that potential. So, lets talk about depth on April 3rd...

As far as non-roster invitees, check out this link in Boston.com sports:

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/

There are a few Triple-A players from other organizations who have surprisingly good numbers. However, their old teams didn't keep them for one reason or another.

One of the best internal guys is Dustin Pedroia. If Gonzalez struggles at short, Pedroia will be waiting in the wings, most likely at AAA. Because pitching is so deep this season, Baucher and Seibel (coming off Tommy John in 2004) should start things off in Pawtucket as well.

Also of note is Gabe Kapler, who by early reports will not be ready physically to play until May.

Camp questions:

Health:
-
Schilling - we he be back to 2004 form? Close? He is the real key to the season...
-
Foulke - did the knee surgeries cure him? Was it his head? Don't agree that the season rests on him. Papelbon would be a good sub until Hansen is ready hopefully by Aug.
-
Beckett - Can he go 200 innings without blister or arm issues? We'll take 25 starts...
-
Trot - supposedly in the best shape he's ever been in. Will it translate into 150 starts?
-
Injuries:
-
This is always a GM's nightmare. The WBC isn't helping matters for the Sox that are playing:
Varitek, Timlin, Ortiz, Manny, & Lowell...

-

-

Other issues:
-
David Wells - will Theo be able to change his mind about staying in camp? Maybe not. Be if we end up keeping him out of necessity (Schill or other injury), will he be a poison pill? Sox will get more in return if another team has an injury, but what are they looking for in return?

-

Graffanino - He's #2 at second, but Sox also have Cora and Pedroia. How many utility guys will they keep? Could be a good chip if another team has an injury...

-

2006 Outlook

On paper, this team is better than last years version. Why? Pitching. Probably the deepest in the majors (as of now anyway). Wells will more than likely go, but that still gives you 6 quality starters, also with Lester (supposed to be better than Papelbon) waiting in AAA. The bullpen has 8 or 9 potential solid guys, of which they only carry 6 or 7. Health is the only major concern. Schilling will be better (according to offseason reports) and Foulke can't be worse. Papelbon is a rising star. Defense will finally be an asset, especially up the middle.

-

The offense will have a drop off, but not as significant as you may think. They should remain in the top 5 in runs scored. They were so far ahead of the pack the past few seasons, that even a significant drop keeps them that high.

-

Pitching wins in October, bottom line. They have enough right now. Defense has been significantly upgraded. The heart of the offense remains. There's an influx of younger talent. There are many reasons to think this team can win 95 games.

-

But don't get too giddy just yet. Many questions remain and hopefully can be answered in Spring Training. Health and injuries are the only stumbling blocks right now. During the season, the Jays should put pressure on both the Yanks & Sox. If Tampa finds any pitching, they could be really tough - what a good young team too. So the chance of 3 teams winning 90+ in the same division are slim. Let's hope any mid-season issues can be fixed by July 31st. In Theo we trust, again...

Sox lineup finally coming into focus...

Yes folks, you have someone named after a cereal in Center field. Actually his real name is Cavelli believe it or not. For those of you that have seen "A Bronx Tale" (starring DeNiro, and one of our top 10 films of all time by the way), we will be referring to Coco as "C" going forward. (Also note that in the movie, "C" was once a Yankee fan, and now the actor is in jail. No kidding - "You little Mary".)

Apparently the Sox have been very busy & managed to stay under the radar for the past month. Kudos to management "post & pre" Theo for keeping it quiet. Reportedly there have been around 75 calls back & forth with Cleveland to get this thing done. The only hurdle remaining is for Cleveland to spin off part of the trade to get an outfielder (Michaels) from the Phillies to replace Crisp.

The Details

Sox get:

CF - Coco Crisp / Relief Pitcher - David Riske / Catcher - Josh Bard

Indians Get:

Relief Pitcher - Guillermo Mota / Catcher - Kelly Shoppach / 3B - Andy Marte

Who gets the best of this trade? Both teams improved their clubs - both short & long term. Because the trade-off of relievers & catchers is somewhat a wash, the value is Marte for "C".

Sox did fairly well considering they essentially plugged 2 holes with "C" in CF & leadoff. He's a younger version of Damon, probably with more range in the OF, more speed, and a substantially better arm. His numbers aren't all that different from Damon's, and he's only 26, so they should increase. Is he a potential all-star? The only question is how he handles the pressure in Boston, one of Damon's strengths.

The Indians get one of the best rated prospects in the game in Marte, who should be a full time starter no later than next season. He was rated higher than the Sox former prospect Hanley Ramirez in the Beckett deal. Supposedly a good defensive player, but his real value is the pop in his bat. Something that is coveted in corner infields these days. He could also be a potential superstar.

Bottom Line

The Sox improved themselves both now & in the future. They get an above average CF who is 6 years younger than his predecessor, and will more than likely improve especially with this lineup behind him. They did lose a potential superstar (still unproven), but may have received an all-star themselves, who is an established everyday player. They got younger, will be paying less than half of what they would have for Damon, and didn't give up any pitching. In fact, Riske had better numbers than Mota (whose health could be a concern). They also saved a couple dollars with Riske only getting $1.8M in 2006...

Other News:

Sox are supposedly on the verge of signing free agent SS Alex Gonzalez. They are probably waiting for the "C" deal to be final before pulling the trigger. So much for all that "faith" in Alex Cora. Here's a look into Gonzalez's #'s:

2003 - .256 BA, 18HR, 77RBI, 16Errors

2004 - .232 BA, 23HR, 79 RBI, 16E

2005 - .264 BA, 5HR, 45RBI, 16E

Not outstanding, but he's your #9 hitter and solid defensively. Might be a little expensive at $5M per for two seasons, but he's also a mentor to Pedroia. Let's hope that dropoff in power wasn't due to "enhancers". He should be primed to prove folks wrong...

UP NEXT:

Once the deals are final, we'll take a look at the numbers from last year vs what we project for 2006. Stay tuned for updates on Wells & Graffanino...

He's baaaaaaaack...

Nope, it's not Ahnooold from Kalifornia...

Welcome back to Theo.

You knew it was only a matter of time. Then you really weren't sure, then maybe. Well, at least it's over. It doesn't matter what they say publicly next week, you know that Theo will have control of the reigns again. But how much? What we do know is that he was in constant contact with the front office all along, and that in recent weeks, he even made calls on their behalf.

The only question still floating around is Luccino's job description. Has he really changed his stripes and is now on board with the organizations (aka Theo's) philosophy? Strongly doubt it. People rarely go against their nature. The only sign that his job has been changed or diminished in some way will be his exit. If Lucchino signs on with the Nationals anytime soon, we'll know. He still has multiple years on his deal here, so don't buy into the "moving on to a new opportunity" lines.

Give management some credit on this one. They essentially admitted they were wrong, or at least took a long enough look at themselves and decided to change. How often do you encounter a business willing to do this? They admitted their mistake (during Theo's exit press conference), realized something was truly "off", took it to heart, and followed through in the end. Ultimately, they hired consultants to evaluate the business culture and operations. They obviously used the results, swallowed any pride, and took Theo back. The only question is - are they a better organization now? Absolutely. Lessons learned, efficiencies gained, and the Nation's faith restored. Forget all the other crap...

What remains most important is the work left to do for opening day 2006. You probably have your starting SS in Alex Cora. CF remains the only significant gap at this point. The downside is that teams have the Sox over a barrel at this point, so asking prices must be a joke.

Here are the main questions still hanging out there:

SS options:

Alex Cora - .260 BA, 3HR, 40RBI, above average fielder, good clubhouse guy, $1.3M
Don't forget that he's your #9 hitter - compared against the league it's not bad

Alex Gonzalez - .265 BA, 5HR, 45RBI - free agent, will cost $3-4M
Not much better for twice the price

Julio Lugo - .285 BA, 5HR, 60 RBI - cost of Marte or Clement/Arroyo type
Too big a cost for additional 20 RBI's, .335 OBP is not enough good for leadoff (Damon .366)

Miguel Tejada - O's apparently don't want to trade him, but stay tuned July 31st if they're struggling in 4th or 5th place

CF / OF options:

Any option will be in a trade. There are no free agents to fit the bill, and the farm system isn't an option yet (Stern is a 4th OF at best right now). The other issue is that they are probably trying to get a leadoff combo a la Johnny Damon. Otherwise, Youkilis is your leadoff guy (OBP of .367 & .400 last 2 seasons). Here's a look at the possible options:

Dave Roberts - remains the most likely, especially if Wells gets traded to the left coast

Jeremy Reed - Seattle may be asking for too much, or just unwilling to part with him

Coco Crisp - Cleveland will probably hold onto him

Torii Hunter - Twins not letting go

Ken Griffey Jr. - no way the Sox pin their hopes on this injury waiting to happen

Sammy Sosa - may be able to sign him to a non roster deal - why not? He's got something to prove, and could be a 4th OF at worst.


David Wells:

Clubs have not been offering fair value in return. Apparently he is aware of the situation as the Sox have communicated to him in the offseason. The big question is will he retire if he doesn't get traded?

Tony Graffanino:

Sox were surprised when he accepted arbitration, as they were looking for draft compensation when he signed elsewhere. He's the most expendable as the Sox will most likely deal him close to or during spring training.

Manny Ramirez:

Welcome back to Boston. Move to the suburbs, and keep your lip zipped.


Intangibles:

Injuries always occur in spring training, which the Sox must be counting on. Throw in the World Basball Classic (March 5th - 20th), and now the chances of injury more than double. What will happen to guys who normally try to peak performance EVERY YEAR in late March? Now they will be ready a MONTH EARLY. Will they over or under train? Patience may pay big dividends. So pray for 2B & pitchers to go down.

At least we know one of the better minds & dealmakers is back in the fold full time...

Manny stay or Manny go?

Manny being Manny? Absolutely. Did he really change his mind & now wants to stay in Boston? According to ESPN Deportes, he does. Someone else claims to have spoken to him after the report came out and he supposedly denied making the comment. His agent said he talked to Manny, and his comment was he doesn't recall speaking to the media. Doesn't recall? Ortiz in a recent interview had reservations about the comment, calling Manny a "box of surprises". So who the hell knows what's going on? Manny probably doesn't either...

Should I stay or should I go, now? We've sent Manny a copy of the Clash to help him decide...

Recent reports have also stated that in dealing with the O's for Tejada, Manny has asked for an extension on his contract before he would approve the deal. That means the O's would have to pick up the remaining option years @ $20M. Manny's agent dismissed that notion, but sources close to the O's said it was one of the stumbling blocks.

The bottom line is that the Sox are better WITH him. The problem is that he has hamstrung the team in terms of dealings this offseason. Apparently several deals have been waiting for the first "domino" to fall. It also led to the perception that the Sox were desperate heading into the winter meetings. That's probably why the asking prices have been so high, and why they have been offered so little for both Manny & Wells. This "box of surprises" actually turned into a box of Frosted Flakes, heavy on the "Flake".

Look at it this way, you'd never replace his offense and you're giving up way too much to replace him. Sure, you plug a hole at SS with Tejada, but you still open another in LF. This deal doesn't make the Sox better. That's what matters. Will we have to deal with more antics? Yup. But are the Sox better off? Yup. So we say pass the bowl & pour the milk. 40HR & 140RBI don't taste so bad, even when you come across a bad flake or two...

State of the Nation... with six weeks to Pitchers & Catchers

The offseason started with a bang landing Beckett. It appeared that the loss of Theo was not as dramatic as previously thought. But since then, the Sox have made, and not made, several puzzling moves. Lucchino has taken most of the heat as the Nation's impatience is growing by the day. Most teams have wrapped up their offseason moves. There are only 6 weeks until pitchers & catchers report. 6 WEEKS! Most quality free agents are gone. Here's a look into why uneasiness is settling in:

Renteria: Although most of the Nation was glad to see him go, most of us were more than surprised in what we got in return. All the more troubling is that no apparent plan was there to replace him BEFORE the trade was final. Is Alex Cora your starter?

Damon: We weren't shocked to see him leave, surprised maybe. The Sox basically made an offer they could live with and refused to overpay. Damon bolted for the cash. This is painful in the short term, but really is a good decision in the long term. But how good is the $13M going to look in Damon's final year at 36?

Here's a great article by Peter Gammons which sheds some light on management:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=2278930

Basically, he thinks that if Theo had stayed, very little would be different. He also noted that management has made every effort to fill each hole, and that the Manny fiasco has held up decision making. He applauds them for not making a bad signing in favor of making a "splash". They didn't bend on Millwood (31, arm issues, wanted 5 yrs), and the Rangers did. Sox have also held fast on Wells & Manny, refusing to get 50 cents on the dollar for returns.

It appears that they are starting to focus more on youth. According to Gammons, the biggest difference in philosophy between Theo & Lucchino is that Theo was moving towards younger players & more defense. Lucchino would rather throw money at superstars ("never give up on superstars") - he was a big believer in bringing Pedro back believe it or not. Looks like he has backed off that notion now.

Next season, you'll have a potential of 3 starters under 26 - Beckett, Papelbon, and Lester (probably August / Sept). The pen is also loaded with young talent - Hansen, Delcarmen, and Martinez. Also a list of players yet to make an impact: 1B Youkilis (26), 2B Pedroia (22), 3B Marte (22), OF Stern (25), & C Shoppach (25). Sox also have 7 of the top 100 draft choices coming up, with a number of solid prospects in A, and AA moving up.

The areas to infuse youth remain in the OF, with Trot (31) and Manny (33). Now it's apparent why the Sox were so high on Jeremy Reed (24). The current holes to fill, CF & SS, will more than likely be 1yr stopgaps at this point until a younger option is found. Don't discount the trading deadline either...

So where are they?

Rotation - as it stands now (wins projected in parenthesis) :

Schilling (16)
Beckett (16)
Wake (12)
Clement (10)
Arroyo /
Papelbon (12+)

That's 66 wins at modest projections. 2004 starters had 67 & the team won 95 games with the worst pen in the AL...

Pen - should be vastly improved. The additions of Mota, Seanez, and probably something in return for Wells (lefty?) alone make it better. Another year of maturity for Hansen & Delcarmen, and newcomer Martinez should make it one of the better ones in the AL. The real key is Foulke, which could make it dominating...

Defense - The infield was the biggest concern last season. A small upgrade at 3B, slight upgrade at 2B, anything is better than 30 errors at SS, and 1B should be solid. CF will be the only weaker spot, but at least the arm is an upgrade. Overall it should be better. Not to mention 3 strikeout pitchers in Schilling, Beckett, and Papelbon.

Offense - There are still holes in CF & SS - but not a shortage of bodies. Stern is not the best option in CF, but is available. The Sox love Cora, and probably won't give up Marte to get Lugo at SS. Youkilis should provide 15HR & 80RBI and if Mike Lowell has an improvement over his worst year (#'s were same as Mueller by the way), they get more production than 2005. Same case applies at 2B where Bellhorn was inept for most of the season, and Trot has been injury ridden the last 2 seasons (only 13HR, 67RBI). The biggest issue is leadoff, but the Sox may have an answer in Youkilis, and they expect another patient presence around .400 OBP. He'll eat up pitches and force the pitcher to throw strikes. Since when has it been the Sox style to run by the way? So is speed that much of an issue?

We must come to grips that the offense will not be where it was the past few seasons. It won't have the huge dropoff people may think. Note that the Chisox were 13th in the majors last season in runs scored. The Sox won't fall that far down with Ortiz & Manny in the lineup. Production at 1B, 2B, 3B, and RF will probably increase. Stable #'s should come from LF, DH, & C. The only questions remain at CF (10HR, 75RBI, 117 Runs) & SS (8HR, 70RBI, 100 Runs).

Even if the Sox lose 140 runs from last season, they still remain in the top 10 in the majors. The starting rotation should be able to carry them thru the tough stretches. The pen should be able to pick up the rotation. This team should win 90+ games. The big factors are Schilling, Foulke, and the trade deadline.

Don't worry Sox Nation, things aren't as bad as they seem...

Anxiety in the Nation?

Sox continue to be stagnant after the Beckett deal. The Nation is getting restless as holes in center and short still exist. Although the Sox have been mentioned in deals with Millwood & Glaus of late, they didn't pull the trigger on either deal. The Renteria deal still has many scratching their heads, especially since no backup plan is apparently in place.

Does "new" management know what they are doing? Like last years Martinez deal, the Sox held firm on a pitcher with injury issues (Millwood) and would not guarantee a 4th year. They also refused to overpay for an aging outfielder (Damon), although productive is still on the back 9 of his career. So, it appears the same principles are being applied. It's good for the long term, but causes the Nation to freak out in the short term. We want to see the Spring Training roster before we pass judgement...

On to the latest rumors...

1B - Sox have been close to signing JT Snow as a backup. The 37 yr old has 6 gold gloves to his credit. Last season he played in 117 games, hit .275, with 4HR & 40RBI. He would be a solid backup & late inning defensive replacement for Youkilis. Supposedly a solid clubhouse presence as well.

Mannygate - Latest is that Sox have offered both Manny & Clement to the O's for Tejada. This seems a little to steep a price. It's also been noted that the Sox would have to kick in additional money as well, because the O's would be taking on an additional $13-14M per season over the next 3 seasons. If you were GM, would you pull the trigger on this? O's would have to add something else to the deal for us to buy into it...

Wells - The talks with the Dodgers have been escalating but no deal yet. Sox would be looking for some of their young arms (prospects) as well as some bullpen help. By holding out, it appears they may be getting close to fair value in return. Talks with the Padres have cooled, as the last offer was Dave Roberts & starter Woody Williams (39 yrs old, 9-12, 4.85ERA).

CF & SS - Strongest rumors have been out of Tampa Bay. Sox would get CF Gathright & SS Lugo in a packaged deal, but no mention of what the Sox would need to give up in return. In the past few seasons, the Rays asking prices have been over the top. The Indians recently signed an OF, which may open the door up for trading Coco Crisp. It also appears that the Mariners will hold onto CF Jeremy Reed. Juan Encarnacion (29yrs old .287, 16HR, 76RBI, $4.4M) although not a true CF, remains one of the best remaining free agent options.

Damon chooses the dark side...

That's right Red Sox Nation, he's gone and there's no turning back. On the surface it seems like the Sox let this one slip thru their fingers. This is different than Pedro last year (who is actually injured right now). Hopefully they know something we don't. Time will tell...


Sox had offered a reported 4yr deal @ $10M per, while the Yanks landed him for 4yrs @ $13M. Wouldn't you think the Sox would have been willing to spend the extra money? The biggest concern was thought to be the length of the contract. Just don't get this one. Was the extra $3M really a deal breaker? Let's hope the Yankees get the Dunkin Donuts version of Johnny...

We really thought he would prefer to stay in Boston. Now it's Johnny turned traitor (or Jesus to Judas?). It was all about the money. Don't believe the BS about who was more aggressive going after him. Bottom line is the dollar sign. Do you think he believes they are closer to a World Series than the Sox? It's not like choosing between Pittsburgh and St. Louis.

Yanks lineup just got better. The question is will it be better over the next 4 years. Probably. That puts Damon at 36. The downside for the Yanks is how often he will play hurt now that he is not playing for a contract. He was beat up most of last season and the body can only take so much wear & tear. Odds are he'll be fine and they can always afford the mistake, a la Bernie...

Don't worry too much. Yanks will probably outscore the majors in runs, but that isn't what wins in Oct. Just ask the Sox who have done so the last 3 seasons. It's about pitching, pitching, and more pitching.

Let's just hope the Sox use that savings to acquire more pitching. Kevin Millwood has been rumored to have an east coast suitor. If not the Sox before, odds are they are in it now. They would make room by dealing Clement, Arroyo, or Wells (he had better #'s than all 3 last season). They could also be saving up for an expensive Clemens return (who wouldn't pass on Damon for Clemens?)

What about CF? The Jeremy Reed trade now looks like one of their better if not only options. With all the trade buzz about a plan B before today, you'd have to think the Sox thought they couldn't re-sign Damon. This also opens up the door for a Manny to Mets trade again. They are offering Beltran and a highly touted OF prospect - which would solve CF & LF. This could gain steam in the next few days...

Torii Hunter - .269, 14HR, 56RBI, Gold Glove (for newly acquired 3B Marte?), Preston Wilson - .260, 25HR, 90RBI (free agent @ $12.5M last yr), & Juan Encarnacion - .276, 16HR, 76RBI (free agent @ $4.4M) will be names to surface in the coming days...

Shortstop? With Graffanino accepting arbitration, there's a logjam at 2B with Loretta & Pedroia. All 3 have played short, included highly touted prospect Pedroia who switched to 2B last year. The answer may be a combination at SS & 2B until the trade deadline...

Latest Sox Activity...

Still no movement, but at least more info seems to be surfacing. Not quite a hot stove yet...

Center Field: There seems to be significant activity around backup plans for Damon. In a recent conversation, Damon hinted at Boston in past tense. The Yanks, O's and Dodgers are all rumored to be interested. The Sox are the only team who has made an actual offer. The others are balking at more than 4yrs for a 32 yr old, and the high pricetag. The Yanks are probably the only other viable suitor. Maybe the Sox are leaking activity in order to have more bargaining leverage. Here's a look at the backup plans:

Coco Crisp - Cleveland: Only 26, hit .300, 16HR, 69RBI, and scored 86 runs. Upside - still developing and will get better, inexpensive salary. Downside - Might not be seasoned enough to take over leadoff role, not sure how pressure in Boston will affect him. Sox would have to give up reliever Mota & newly acquired 3B prospect Marte. Not sure they can afford to give up relief with remaining questions in the pen. Pricetag seems a little high, and can't get past having an outfielder named after a cereal...

Jeremy Reed - Seattle: Only 24, rookie last season, hit .254, 3HR, 45RBI, and scored 61 runs. He has tons of upside, but has big shoes to fill. Might be too young to handle a leadoff role and high expectations. Sox would reportedly have to give up Clement or Arroyo. A solid starter for an unproven rookie is not a good tradeoff...

Pitching: ChiSox are reportedly shopping Jon Garland. He's only 26, went 18-10, 3.50 ERA last season. He has only 1 year left on his deal and has turned down extension offers to test the market next year. Sox should take a run at this guy. Chicago is reportedly looking for 2 pitching prospects, but Sox could offer Arroyo or Clement & another minor league pitcher (but not Lester)

Rudy Seanez: Former Sox reliever had solid 2005 but has been inconsistent in the past. The 37 year old has already received an offer from the Sox. There are also a number of NL teams in the mix for his services as well.

Octavio Dotel: Sox are amoung several teams with interest in former A's closer. He had Tommy John surgery last year and probably won't be availble until June.

Wells: Still no activity. Sox would prefer to have him back, but he may retire & they would get nothing in return except salary room.

Manny Gate: Negotiations are said to still be going on with the O's for Tejada, but asking price is still too high. Apparently Big Papi has been in contact trying to persuade him to stay. As more time goes by, this deal is less likely to go thru.

Shortstop: Alex Gonzalez may already have a suitor. Rich Aurilia remains an option - hit .282, 4HR, 68RBI, and only 10 errors. Would much prefer Aurilia...

First: Sox plan is to start Youkilis, who could be a .280, 15HR, 80RBI guy. He hasn't proven that he could do so, but we're not uncomfortable with that. Sox reportedly have had contact with JT Snow who would likely platoon. The 37 yr old hit .275, 4HR, and 40RBI. A full season of Youkie is looking better & better...

Other news: Ortiz has been contacted by the Sox to work on a contract extension, along with Terry Francona. Negotiations will start after Jan 1st...

Stove not as hot as it should be...

Things have cooled considerably since the GM meetings. Although the Sox have finally settled on a GM, or uh, two, with maybe the door open for Theo? Moving on...

Sox sign journeyman backup catcher Ken Huckaby to a minor league deal. He's planning on moving near Wake's home in Florida before spring training to get an early start on his upcoming "every 5th day" of duty. Best known for his collision at 3rd with Jeter. Wouldn't be surprised to see another guy in camp - namely Shoppach if they don't trade him.

Manny - Latest is another 3 team deal including Mets & Rangers. Sox would get Beltran (poor 2005, injury question), reliever Juan Dominguez (just avg), and CF Laynce Nix (.240, 6HR, 32RBI). Not the worst deal, but nothing that gets you too excited. No worries, because the Rangers have apparently stalled this one...

Damon - The Yanks have finally started interest (phone call by Torre), and now he reportedly is meeting with the Dodgers who are said to have a small chance of signing him. Not sure how much of either is strong interest. Sox really need to sign him, especially if they want to resemble anything close to the offense they've had the last 2 seasons. His agent Boras will drag things on - last year Beltran signed on Jan 9th - which may be too late for options if they lose out. Backup plan is Mariners CF Jeremy Reed - .245, 3HR, 45RBI, but Sox will have to sacrifice players (Clement?) in a trade to get him. He is supposedly a rising star only at 24, but straight up for Clement is too steep...

Shortstop - Ideal situation would be Tejada, but in preliminary discussions, the O's were asking for a pitcher & pitching prospect in addition to Manny. Dream on boys. But Sox may be willing to pay cash to get it done. Backup plan looks to be former Marlins SS Alex Gonzalez - .264, 4HR, 45RBI with 16 errors in the field.

Wells - Not a lot of activity as teams are reluctant to give up much in return for a durable 15 game winner. In a time when pitching is so scarce (see Free Agent deals so far) its puzzling that no one has stepped up. Sox are asking for bullpen help in return. In a recent interview, even Francona thinks he will be traded. He also added that if Wells goes, they won't move another starter...

Clemens - Remains a long shot at best. Sox confirmed contact and sources close to Clemens said he was very happy about interest from Boston. Yanks have also jumped in and made contact. Wouldn't be shocked to see him retire, or even return to Houston on may 1st. The extra month of rest may prevent his body breaking down in Sept. You'll probably see more activity in January...

GM Meetings a success?

Sox managed to make 2 deals at the meetings, one minor and one major.

Mirabelli to San Diego for 2B Loretta. Anytime you can get a full time player for a backup, it's a good deal. Sox fill their need at 2B until Pedroia is ready. Wakefield was consulted prior to this deal as well. B+

Renteria to the Braves for 3B prospect Marte. Sox shelled out an additional $11M over 3 years to get this done. Management obviously thought he couldn't get the job done. Maybe they found his "real" birth certificate and think he got old way too fast? They must know something that hasn't been made public. Anyway, Marte is one of baseball's top 5 prospects, rated higher than Hanley Ramirez - who the Sox had traded in the Beckett deal. Should have been able to get more (prospect or bullpen help) especially shelling out that kind of dough. C

Other deals still in process...

Damon: Apparently the market hasn't been too active for Damon, which is good for the Sox. Reportedly the Dodgers are now considering an offer, but rumblings around the Yankees have been surprisingly quiet. Sox have offered 4yrs and $40M+ to this point. This deal could be getting in the way of other deals. Wish they would just fish or cut bait at this point...

David Wells: Most people thought he would be gone already. Apparently the Sox haven't been offered what they are looking for and are sticking to their guns. Dodgers have apparently cooled their interest & San Diego is probably the front runner once again. Giants could be the dark horse. We wish they would package a deal to get Zito from the A's. What's holding up this deal? Sox need to determine what needs they have if they trade Manny & can't re-sign Damon. (Deal believed to be OF Dave Roberts & reliever Otsuka) Roberts would be the 4th OF again, which is why he asked for a trade after 2004.

Blockbuster Manny for Tejada: Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. If this swap of superstars happens, the Renteria deal just turned brilliant. Ramirez is a superior hitter, but their numbers aren't that far off. Sox would be getting 90-95% in terms of value - better than any reported deal out there. What they get is the best shortstop in the game, a good clubhouse guy, and a feisty competitor. You'll see a few more all-star appearances as well...

Theo back? Sounds like the Sox are bringing him back in an "advisory or consulting" role. Call it what you like, but he'll be running things again. Smart move, as management can save face and bring back one of the more talented thinkers in the game. Gammons reported on Thursday that Theo had been "in contact" with members of his former staff. Wonder how much input he's been having...

Clemens? This is a long shot. Although if he does return, the Sox and Yanks are possible destinations. Beckett and Schilling might be able to persuade him to return to Boston. His exit from NY to Houston might be a point of contention. With his son in the Houston organization (catcher) most thought he would return until he was major league ready. Will the desire to win another championship bring him back? Or how about another Cy Young - which he would be a favorite for in the AL? He's more than likely retiring, but would put most contending teams over the top as favorites...

Rumors in full force on next to last day of meetings...

No major deals have been pulled off yet this week. Sox management said to have been in "clean up" mode on Tue, with Wed targeted as dealing only with teams that have real interest.

One notably quiet team is the Yankees, who have only signed a reliever to this point. Now that Pierre has gone to the Cubs, you would think they'd step up efforts for Damon. Word is that they would only discuss a 3 or 4 yr deal - at a significant discount to the current asking price of $13M per. Can't believe Georgie Boy has been quiet, and don't believe the BS about the Yanks losing $50-80M last season. Highest revenue in majors by far, so apparently their accountants left out revenues from the YES network on this one...



Congrats to Grady Little, the Dodgers new manager. Things will probably work out a little better for him this time around. He's got Gagne to bring in the 8th now...

Good luck to John Olerud, as he hangs up his cleats. Was looking forward to see him in a Sox uniform once again...

Most likely deals to happen...

Wells wil probably be gone in next couple of days. Apparently his request was "West Coast", which opens the door for more suitors. A's, Dodgers, Giants, and Padres all have interest. A perennial 15 game winner should yield a good return. Best case would be to package him with another pitcher or prospect to get Zito from the A's...

Mirabelli & prospect to yield Padres 2B Loretta. Not sure why deal hasn't been done yet - could be haggling over prospect.

Back burner...

Manny gate continues. Appears that Angels & Mets are cooling on deal. Managment stated that deal is too complex & will not get done this week

Damon - Management met with his agent Boras who said talks are going good. Apparently "good" is not a word he throws around lightly, but it will probably take 4yrs @ $44M plus option for a 5th year.

Renteria to the Braves has apparently lost some steam. Money the Sox would have to pay is reportedly the bottleneck. Hopefully it was more than a tease.

Seattle has been inquiring about Trot, but no reports of what they would give up in return...

Arbitration...

Teams have until midnight tonight to decide to offer their free agents arbitration. If they do not offer it, kiss that player goodbye.

Players can reject it, and then teams have until Jan 8th to sign them. If a player accepts but does not re-sign, their team receives compensation from whoever they sign with next. The downside is that the player is awarded a significant contract. Here's the list for the Sox:


Yes:

Damon - he'll reject it, giving the Sox until Jan 8th to re-sign


Decision time:

Mike Myers - reportedly fielding offers from multiple teams
Matt Mantei - no word on offseason surgery or timetable
Mike Stanton - might be a good idea especially with current reliever's pricetags

Probably a "no":

Bill Mueller - Mike Lowell unless he's traded, then Youkilis?
Kevin Millar - too steep a price for a backup
Gabe Kapler - too severe of injury? Already taken off 40 man roster
Tony Graffanino - looking for a 2 or 3 year deal (might do just to get compensation?)

Stay tuned, we'll be back later tonight or tomorrow the latest. Something is cooking!!!

Hot Stove is on fire...

Finally, something to get excited about.

It's day two of the meetings & not much but a flood of rumors. Why? The free agent market has about 200 players, and only 22 of them are in their 20's. And half of them will be 30 come playoff time. That's what is driving the trade market. Sox picked right time to have farm system start to pay dividends.

Sox have been somewhat busy fielding numerous Manny inquiries. Supposedly they've met with 8 of their scheduled 13 teams so far.

The Theo returning to Boston rumors keep surfacing. We think someone is doing this just to be a pain in the ass. Move on already...


Manny Gate Continues:

Still puzzled as to what is or will happen. So many contradicting rumors floating around:

1) His agents are apparently stating that he will play anywhere & that they are mandated to get a deal done.

2) Sox management stating that it's unlikely they will get what they want in a trade, inferring he will be back (NY paper thinks they are putting that out there to get more value)

3) Angels management privately stating not interested in Manny(so there goes Troy Glaus) & not willing to part with Ervin Santana.

4) His deal could be extended or restructured in order to get a deal done

5) Mets would want to include Kaz Matsui (.255, 3HR, 24RBI - $7M/yr) as part of the deal, and fill 2B void in Boston. Bellhorn had better #'s...

6) To Texas for Soriano? Soriano is the exact opposite of the prototype player the Sox covet. Poor defensive fielder at 2nd, never played in OF. Might make sense for 1 year?



Bobby Abreu - for Clement & Nixon. Philly apparently not high on Clement. Sox should throw in an Abe Alvarez or similar to get this done. Wow.


Julio Lugo - Tampa SS, would play 2nd. Shoppach & Youkilis are the bait.


Wells - Dodgers now in the mix. No mention of players, but likely pitching prospects. At least provides leverage in San Diego talks. San Diego not likely to part with pitching now that Hoffman appears to be headed to Cleveland. The A's have also entered the picture offering relier Justin Ducherererererer. Seems a little light for a 15 game winner in this market. Heck, throw in Clement & go for Zito...


Mark Loretta - San Diego 2B - for Mirabelli. Was rumored to be part of Wells / Mirabelli combo deal last week. Now straight up. Wake might not be pleased with this one.


Mike Lowell - newly acquired 3B inquired by Twins for JC Romero & Lew Ford - meets Sox need for reliever & 4th outfielder.


Aubrey Huff - Tampa 1B - Sox have had interest for a while, no mention of what they would give up

Trot - offered to Pittsburgh for either starting pitcher Mark Redman or Kip Wells. Not sure why the Sox would do this with excess pitching already. Both guys have era around 5. Yikes.

Sean Casey - Cinn 1B - for Arroyo & Youkilis - would work out well for Sox

Lyle Overbay - Milw 1B - for Clement. Price might be a little too steep

Soriano - reports saying that Texas would be interested in Clement or Arroyo...

Edgar Renteria - Apparently the Braves have some interest. Boy does this open the door for a number of possibilities. Getting giddy just thinking about it. This would be a 3 team deal with the Sox acquiring Tampa's SS Lugo, but paying some of $30M left on Renteria's deal.

Stay tuned folks. More updates to come this week. Talks end on Thursday where most wheeling & dealing will take place...

Hot Stove headed into GM Meetings...

Here's the latest as we near next weeks GM meetings in Dallas...

Manny Gate
The latest on Manny is that Mets GM Omar Minaya is going after him hard, and will probably try to get something done at the winter GM meetings next week. David Ortiz had stated last week that Manny would not be back & that his preference would be on the west coast. Here’s a few pro’s & cons…

1) Mets would need to shed salary and address one of their biggest needs – a closer. They’ve reportedly offered Wagner $10+M a year. On top of Delgado, that’s an additional $30M a year. The supposed “blank checkbook” would be north of $135M. Doubt it even with new TV deal.
2) According to David Ortiz, Manny will not be back to Boston, and prefers the West coast. Choices are limited to Angels & Dodgers, with Seattle (Manny’s choice) a longshot.
3) A third team would need to get involved, as Mets only have highly touted OF prospect Lastings Milledge as bait. Delgado was told he would not be traded, as he would fill the 1B void in Boston.
4) Sox rumored to make offer to Wagner, which would have to be more than the $10M offered by Mets/Phillies. Now that BJ Ryan was offered over $9M per for 5yrs, that price should go up. Unless Sox want to go over $130M, they would have to shed Ramirez’s salary.
5) Supposedly Sox management has made a last ditch effort to keep him as well
6) He can veto any trade, and could change his mind 25 times before spring training
7) His threat to not show at spring training lowers his value

We really have no idea which way this will go. Will the Sox & fans be able to deal with his antics again? At least the Beckett trade will take the sting out of a potential bad deal for the Sox.

Bottom line is that the Sox are better with him, and you won’t get dollar for dollar in a trade. A third team will more than likely have to be involved. The Sox also have enough trade bait to sweeten the right deal. Worst case, they get top prospects & use the money to sign Konerko & Wagner for similar dollars.

Check out www.KeepManny.com - sign a petition to help keep him in Boston!

Damon
Haven’t heard much response from the Boras camp on the supposed $10M for 3 years. Rumblings are that Sox will make a push to get him signed in a shorter timeframe than Varitek last season. A Boras tactic is to drag on negotiations, and apparently his dealings with Lucchino (who has taken a more active role) in the past were contentious. Let’s hope this works to the Sox advantage. It will be critical for the Sox to have a solid leadoff guy especially if Manny goes bye bye.


Bullpen
The Sox reportedly are making an offer to Wagner as early as today. At least we know where they stand on Foulke now. You know he’ll want out if Wagner is signed. They must be worried about his mental state. Who would take Foulke? A small market team looking for a starter?

A potential trade with San Diego for David Wells could yield reliever Akinori Otsuka & Dave Roberts. Roberts is a hometown favorite, but would be relegated to a 4th outfielder, but that was the reason he was traded last offseason. He’s not a suitable replacement for Damon (hit .275 with 8HR & 38RBI’s – not great #’s for leadoff).

Tom Gordon’s name has been floating around the Sox. The Yanks have yet to pounce on him in this thin market. Surprising. He had a solid season and would have been better if he wasn’t so overused, especially down the stretch.

Kyle Farnsworth & Japanese league’s (Seibu Lions) Shinji Mori are longshots, but possibilities if Wagner or other options dry up.

First
There are many options here, most being trade options. Sox reportedly concentrating on lefthanders.
Konerko is only viable if Manny is dealt.
Delgado was told he is not being traded.
Lyle Overbay is supposedly expendable due to a prospect projected to hit 40HR. Rumors have the Sox sending Clement. This seems too steep a price, and Milwaukee would need to send more. No way they do this deal straight up.
Adrian Gonzalez form Texas seems like the most viable option, as the Sox could trade catching prospect Shoppach
Fall back candidates are John Olerud or Travis Lee
Long shots are Chad Tracy from Diamondbacks or Sean Casey from Reds
What happens to Youkilis? If a big name is signed, he becomes expendable. Otherwise he’s in a platoon situation with a younger guy or Olerud. Sox may not be as high on him as the fans are.


Second
Sounds more & more that Sox are not sold on Pedroia starting the season in Boston. Only problem is finding a viable one-year option. Most guys they are considering are looking for multi-year deals. Based on the reports last year, he should be given a shot. Most trade publications rank Pedroia in the top 15 prospects in baseball.

Rotation
Who is the odd man out? Will Schilling be healthy or still a shell of his former self? Gut feeling is that Arroyo is pen bound & they’ll keep him in case Schilling faulters.
Matt Clement’s fate is up in the air. He’s been mentioned in at least one rumor. Did the line drive to the squash damage him, or will the late season swoon continue? Sox may have apprehensive & unafraid to move him. Still better than Arroyo however.
David Wells may retire if not traded to the west coast. Roberts as part of the deal doesn’t make sense. Apparently Sox are getting Angels & Dodgers to get involved in an attempt to get San Diego moving. Stay tuned.

GM
Looks like the Sox could continue the GM by Committee, or even stick one of the older internal guys with an interim tag. Based on what they’ve done so far, an internal promotion is still possible. Either way, they’ve had a successful offseason so far.


Stay tuned for breaking news & more updates…

Sox land the big Marlin

Oh baby. Wow. It's not official yet but this is huge. A bargain at $4-5M for 2006, but also the ability to sign a franchise type pitcher to a long term deal. The opportunity to sign this caliber of pitcher doesn't come along every day, especially at age 25. He's easily a solid #2 behind Schilling. They have the horses to get it done in Oct again...

The Deal:

Sox Get:

Josh Beckett 25, 15-8, 3.38 ERA. Power pitcher, fastball tops at 97, sinker at 92-94, nasty 12 to 6 curveball. Sox get better and younger. Proven Yankee killer - remember game 6 of the World Series?



Sounds like Paul Revere calling...




Mike Lowell - 3B, 32, gold glove, but career lows last yr: .238 BA, 8HR, 58 RBI. Replaces Mueller with similar power numbers and equal defense. Should be able to get closer to last 5 year avg of 20+HR & 90+RBI, especially with Sox lineup. Right handed pull hitter at Fenway? Sounds like a doubles machine.

Cash - Marlins are desperate to dump payroll, but still paying out some of Lowell's remaining $18M over 2 years.



Marlins Get:

Hanley Ramirez - 21, SS, Sox organization's top prospect. Projected to be superstar caliber. Would have seen Boston in midseason the earliest but will start for Marlins. Renteria signing makes a little more sense now if they were looking to trade him.

Anibel Sanchez - 21, Starter, highly touted righthander, strikeout type pitcher. Went 6-1, 2.40 ERA in Single A. Promoted to AA, went 3-5, 3.45 ERA in 11 starts. Probably won't make big club until mid season 2007 at earliest. Sox able to keep prized lefty starter Jon Lester (AA pitcher of year), look for him mid season. Rumored to have better pure stuff than Papelbon. Wow.

Player to be named later: To be determined, but will be a minor league pitcher...

The Outcome:

Sox get the best of this deal by far. A stud #2 or arguably 1-A caliber ace, gold glove 3rd baseman and cash, for 3 minor league prospects. Wow. Sox make the right call trading away their blue chip & another solid pitching prospect. Kudos to the GM Team for getting this one done.

Sox rotation:

Schilling

Beckett

Papelbon

Clement

Wakefield

-

Wells - Trade to SD for relief pitching?

Arroyo - back to pen?

DiNardo - pen in April

-

Lester - start season in AAA, up in mid season?

Alvarez - Sox pen in April?

Other rumors:

GM - Still very much up in the air. Current GM Team did solid job. Will they look internally now that they're somewhat proven? Gammons also reports that Theo might still be in the mix. Our gut says Bowden, but regardless, the organization looks much stronger after the Beckett deal.

Damon - Sox reportedly offered 3 years between $9-10M per. Just a starting point? Boras threw 7yrs and $84M at the Yanks. Where's the middle? Sox should jump on 4yrs $42M.

1B - Now that Sox landed Lowell, look for Youkilis at first. He's a solid defender at 3rd and was working out at first in AAA last season. Love to see Olerud back as platoon. Stay tuned.

Closer - Sox reportedly making inquiries into Wagner. They would have to shell out significant dollars to pry him away.

2B - Mark Grudzielanek - Sox might not be sold on Pedroia just yet. We'll know soon enough if he signs to more than 1 year deal.

MVP goes to...

The wrong player.

A-Rod gets the nod over Ortiz by a slim margin, his second overall since winning with last place Texas. Apparently most writers are old school and feel that the DH position doesn't merit the award. But, at least 11 writers (first place votes) thought that his accomplishments far exceeded his position. But, here's the kicker - if Ortiz had played half the year at first, even horribly, this race wouldn't have been close (see Don Baylor). This award has always been about offense, not defense (see Canseco). Today's ESPN poll of 90,000+ participants, over 55% thought Ortiz should win. What it really comes down to is which team suffers more if you remove the player. Ortiz performed far better & won more games then A-Rod in the clutch. How many games did A-Rod win with his glove? Nuff said...

GM RUMORS:

Latest GM rumor is that Theo has been offered the position for the Dodgers. The wildcard here is that they reportedly offered him a small piece of ownership. Will it be enough to sway him? Chances are no based on his unwillingness to work in a difficult environment (which may be the same in LA). Could change based on the SIZE of the ownership. Still think he will act in a consulting type role, or even ESPN analyst until the job he covets opens up (Washington?).

FREE AGENCY:

Friday marked the first day that teams lost exclusive negotiating rights with their free agents. It's been fairly quiet across baseball, and not much info is floating out there yet. Here's a few tidbits:

Manny - reports are saying Sox must be bowled over with an offer to move him. With no one team apparently in that position, it will take 3 teams to get involved. Most think he will stay in Boston.

Damon - report leaked that the Sox had extended an offer, and most assume it was to Damon. Sox are thought to be aggressive going after him. They almost have to be, as his agent, Boras, loves to drag negotiations on. If they wait to long, it could interfere with other needs or trades (Manny).

Nomar - Cubs reportedly have asked him to look elsewhere. Injuries have been decimating & humbling. Sox would be crazy not to offer him a job at 2nd. An incentive based contract, based on health, for one year until he proves himself (to go back out on open market). Won't hurt to have Pedroia start in AAA or platoon. That is, if he can get past the trade. Can you imagine Fenway if he steps up to the plate? Wow. May solve part of offensive issue if Manny is dealt...

Sox Hot Stove - GM Meetings

Well folks, here's the first installment of the Hot Stove season. Not too much going on, unless of course you look internally. Now that the initial Theo shock has worn off, we press on and look at the external goings on.

Management is sending their own "Rat Pack" into the GM meetings this week. While Cherington, Hoyer, Shipley, & Woodfork don't have the cache of Frank & the boys, they should have the necessary seasoning & understanding of the system. Let's hope GM by committee has more success than closer by committee did. At least they haven't rushed the GM position...

Teams have until Nov 10th to sign their respective players, otherwise they hit the open free agent market. On to the latest news...


Mike Timlin - recently signed a one year deal with Sox for a reported $3.5M


Manny Ramirez:

3 way trade with Arizona / Angels has been shot down. Sox would have received 3B Glaus, 1B Erstad, and prospects. Shouldn't do deal unless stud pitcher is involved.

Sounds like the Mets rumors are back on involving Mike Cameron (still damaged from last year?), and 2 of their 3 top prospects. This would also impact re-signing Damon. Look for a third team once again if this is going to happen.


David Wells:

Asked for trade to left coast. Apparently tired of east coast spotlight. Born & raised in San Diego, rumored to have purchased a house there recently. Early indications point to Sox not satisfied with potential players, including young starter & solid relief.


Johnny Damon:

Has stated he wants big contract consisting of at least 5 years. That's a tall request for someone who will be 37 in the final year of that deal. His agent Scott Boras floated 4yrs & $50m out there. Look for Sox to make a strong push to get him re-signed.


Paul Konerko:

Rumors indicate he prefers not to be on east coast. Apparently told teammates during ALDS that he would not come to Boston. Money has a way of changing things.


Bill Mueller:

Sox plan to speak with his agent. Can't imagine them letting Youkilis spend another year in utility role. They will have to trade him or play him if they keep Mueller. Look for Billy in a Twins uni in 06.


Kevin Millar:

Recent reports have him doubting a return to Boston. Apparently O's & Twins have some interest.


BJ Ryan:

Most coveted reliever on market. Sox would love to have him, but Yanks will probably overpay to get him.



AJ Burnett:

Most coveted starter on the market. Someone other than the Sox will overpay. He still has "potential" tag stuck to him. Left Florida on bad terms as well..

Stay tuned for weekly updates! We will also be reporting any breaking news.

Market should get hotter later this week.

State of the Yankees - offseason needs

Hello gang. Here's a quick look at where the Yanks stand and what they need this offseason. It's been since Year 2000 and now close to a billion dollars since they last won it all. Hell, it seems like T-rex was around the last time they won it - especially in NY. With an aging team and one of the thinnest free agent markets in recent memory, they have a lot of work to do this offseason. The only stability they have is now at GM & a revamped coaching staff. The farm system has been depleted the last couple years, and doesn't have much talent above single A ball. Cashman will have to get creative to pull off any significant trades...

Catcher:

Posada - will be 35, hit .258 and power #'s down. Definitely on the back 9, Big Unit still won't pitch to him

Backup? Future? Big issue if Posada goes down, or skills disintegrate.


1B / DH:

Giambi - will be 35, "rebounded" to hit .271, 32HR, 87RBI. Who knows what you get next season - roid / HGH effects. Full time DH in 2006? Definite in 2007...

Tino - will be 39, no telling if he comes back. Had a brief power spurt, but only hit .243

Sierra - will be 41, #'s way down, will be a cheap option

Hold on with platoon guys until prospect Eric Duncan is ready in 2 seasons?


2B:

Cano had solid rookie season. Should be long term option.



SS:

Jeter - will be 32, hit .308 but power #'s down. Could be start of decline, but still has a few years left


3B:

A-Rod - will be 31, had MVP caliber season. Will be OK if he gets gambling under control


Utility:

Need to pick up 1B & infield backup - most likely vets on back 9 of career


RF:

Sheffield - will be 38, had solid 2005 #'s, but age and injury history bound to catch up soon


Outfield:

Crosby - will be 30, backup duty at most, will be shocked if given start in CF

Lawton - huge disappointment at trade deadline, now suspended for roids. Not much impact in 06.

Free Agency:

Bernie - probably won't be back - already have cheaper options with same stats / short money

Matsui - will be 32, must re-sign. No better options out there but he won't be cheap.

Damon - biggest name free agent on market. Will be 32 & wants at least 5 years. Yanks will have to offer 6yrs & more money than Sox.

Giles - will be 35, power #'s OK but declining. Still significant upgrade over Bernie. May force Matsui into CF which weakens defense. Teams will run on Matsui in center.

Trade: (rumored)

Milton Bradley - hit .290 but only 13HR, 38RBI's, some injury history & what a head case. Good luck with this one...


Relief:

Rivera - will be 37, had great 2005. Age has to catch up to him at some point. Doesn't it?

Small - will be 35, now with his 15th major league team. Don't expect repeat of last season. There is a reason Torre kept taking him in & out of the rotation. He's bullpen bound in 06.

Free Agency:

BJ Ryan - had solid 2005, best reliever on market (outside of closers). Yanks will have to overpay with several teams in bidding war. They'll get him, but they'll pay.

Sturtze - had subpar 2005 with 4.7 ERA.

Others: Good luck. Worst crop in a while - topping last year's list. Guys like Gordon, Guardado, Mesa, Urbina all want to close, not be setup guys behind Rivera.


Starters:

Big Unit - will be 43. Ouch. Mediocre 2005. Back problems persist, no cartiledge left in one knee. Worst season in years, should have stayed in NL. Don't look for much improvement, will probably see #2 type numbers at best.

Mussina - will be 38. 13 wins & 4.4 ERA is respectable, but not for a #2 making $20M. Age & injuries will continue to follow him. Can't stay healthy the entire season.

Chacon - will be 29. Yanks most consistent starter, pitched well in 2005. Still only a solid #4 or fringe #3 guy.

Wang - will be 26. Solid rookie season with 4.1 ERA, could be potential #3 guy. Not a good sign when your rookie pitcher is out 2 months with a strained shoulder. Can't be too optomistic with the youngest pitcher on the staff spending significant time on the DL.

Pavano - will be 30. Very mediocre 4-6, 4.7ERA performance. Still has the "potential" tag, with career losing record & 4.3ERA. Don't expect a breakout season with "new" rotator cuff injury. Not sure how mentally stable he is. Already mentioned in trade rumors to Seattle.

Wright - will be 31. Bounced back from horrific start, but turned into a ball magnet. Based on injury history, any success will be short lived.

Free Agency:

AJ Burnett - best pitcher on market. Will command high dollars, but stuck with same "potential" label as Pavano. His early Florida exit may be warning sign he can't handle the pressure, and there's plenty in NY.

Matsuzaka - plays for Japanese league's Seibu Lions. On a few teams radar, exceptional talent apparently. Doesn't have permission to leave, but still hired Scott Boras as agent. Long shot at this point.


Bottom Line:

Overall, not much change coming to the everyday lineup. Big question marks are CF, mid relief, and the starters. As proven again this season, pitching wins in Oct. Their lineup will be fine, with some depth needed at catcher and outfield.

But the starters are OLD and injury prone. Not one guy on the staff has made all their starts. Big Unit is no longer the true Ace he was even in 2004. Mid relief will probably be their achilles heel in 06. Other than BJ Ryan, the free agent crop is thin, and teams will be reluctant to part with any arms - especially effective ones.

Cashman will need to be very creative, especially with an immature farm system. The current Yanks payroll is just shy of $170M even with the loss of multiple big contracts (Bernie, Kevin Brown, etc). Money obviously isn't an issue. But, between CF ($7M-11M), Matsui ($10M), BJ Ryan ($6M), possibly AJ Burnett ($11M) & dead money ($5M - via trades), you're looking at $210M. Just obscene.

Don't expect to see this sign - except in a museum, Yankee fans. There's still not enough pitching. The drought will continue in NY...

Theo's gone, Sox Nation reeling...

The loss of Theo is the first misstep the organization has taken. The proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back came in the form of an article written by Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe - Here's the article . Basically it revealed some of the more intimate details of the working relationship between Theo & Lucchino, as well as details of what Theo assumed to be private. They way in which the Colorado deal was handled also incensed him. There was no question in Theo’s mind that Lucchino had leaked the story to his friend Shaughnessy, aka the curly haired boyfriend. Not to mention that the Globe “coincidentally” owns a 17% stake in the Sox. Trying to utilize the media was a critical mistake.

The article calls into question Theo’s role and how there was hand holding going on during his development. It also leads you to believe that Theo hasn’t been standing on his own two feet. Then he drones on about how Theo’s “minions” have been doing more talking than Sox management. Please. The story was “leaked” directly by Lucchino. Shaughnessy indirectly works for the Sox. You have to take what is reported with a grain of salt, or at least grasp the point of view of the writer. If any of this was true, why was he offered $1.5M a year for 3 years? Curious.



Yup, here's 2 guys that may not make it back...

What it comes down to is that the ego of Lucchino came before a business decision. He would rather put a media spin on this to ensure people think he has the upper hand. It backfired. There was no need to massage the fans. The perception of Theo was positive, and everyone expected the Sox to pay up in order to keep him. This was all about Larry. Theo knew in his heart he couldn’t trust the person he was working for any longer. If he was on the fence about coming back, he was pushed over by the article. Now the Sox have lost one of baseball’s rising stars. Theo grew up a mile from the park, had a better grasp of the dynamics than anyone, and was destined to run this team for years - successfully.

Who’s ultimately to blame? Lucchino? Absolutely. His EGO has taken its first victim in his tenure. Even mild-mannered guys like Peter Gammons have become harsh towards Boston because of him.

Shaughnessy? He’s a whore, plain and simple. Some folks in the media say they would have done the story if leaked to them. Point is they are no better. You should be held accountable regardless. All he cares about is the story, not the effects of it. In today’s column, he says “Blame me if it makes you feel better”. Well we do blame you, it doesn’t make us feel better, and we’re not buying the “BS” as you try to cover yourself. Stop being evasive and own up to it. You screwed up. You let yourself be used. You should be ashamed. But when you’ve been on your back as many times as he has, there’s no conscience, no regrets, and no integrity left. Let’s hope Karma makes a visit sooner rather than later.

But until then, here’s his email address: dshaughnessy@globe.com