Yanks are wondering where their rotation has gone…

Not that they had one of the better rotations coming in on paper, but a recent string of “setbacks” (not “injuries”) have pushed them to the back of the pack. With only a week before the season starts, panic is starting to creep in. While they have vast resources, they don’t have depth. And according to Cashman, “We are going to go with what we have”. If you are a Yankee fan, how are you not VERY concerned?

Your opening day starter is Carl Pavano (insert punchline here). Your best starter in Wang is out at least 3 weeks of April, and his replacement Karstens just hurt his elbow during a game and will be out “for a time”. Pettite has had back spasms, and Darrell Rasner (who?) is your new 5th starter.

The only known quantity you have is in Mussina. But he’s another year older at 39, with a history of injuries. So, you’re counting on Pavano (hee hee), Pettite (already hurt with back spasms & just switched back to the grind of the AL), Igawa who’s never pitched in the majors – or bright spotlight, and Rasner (an unproven rookie).

Granted the Yanks won’t need a #5 starter for the first couple of weeks, but who would you stack them against? More like who has a worse rotation…

Notes & Projections / Stats
Mussina: Career year at 38, numbers to be worse in 2007: 14-8, 4.50 Era

Pettite: Switch to AL, last yr stats 14-13, 4.20 Era: 12-14, 4.95 Era

Igawa: Never pitched in majors, not highly touted: 10-12, 5.35 Era

Wang: Hamstring changes everything, numbers worse: 16-10, 4.25 Era

Pavano: Hasn’t pitched in 21 months, ugly spring: 5-8, 5.60 Era

Karstens: And/or Rasner – similar unproven soph status: 6-7, 5.25 Era

Hughes: May see the phenom too early if Yanks fall back: 7-5, 4.50 Era


That is not a scary lineup no matter how you slice it. Unless they all pitch well, the Yanks may be looking up at the Jays and the Sox. That's right Yanks fans, it's already time to get out your Clemens shrines & start praying. It's your only shot...

Papelbon to Pen creates questions...

OK. Lets hope your Sox have something up their sleeve. At first glance, you get one of the top closers in the game and really shore up the pen. However, you create another important need and raise all sorts of questions…

#1) Who fills that gaping hole in the rotation? Papelbon was a potential 1a or 2 guy. Now you replace that level with a #5 starter like Snyder or Piniero? You just weakened arguably the best rotation in the majors. How dominating would Papelbon have been against the rest of the league’s #4 guys? Ouch.

#2) What happened to the medical diagnosis of better health if he’s moved to the rotation? Did something magically happen? Isn’t he at a higher risk of breaking down and not having a long career? Isn’t this irresponsible based on what they told us last year??? If he goes to this role, he doesn’t come out of it in 2007 or maybe ever. At least now you have Hansen and Bryce Cox as attractive bargaining chips.

How will they address the hole in the rotation? The candidates:
Kyle Snyder: Based on his spring you could make a case for it, but during last season he was only solid thru 4 innings and then fell apart.
Julian Tavares: More intriguing especially since he pitched well in that role down the stretch last year. But remember that he only went 5 or 6 innings.
Joel Piniero: Had the worst numbers in the AL last season but has looked OK this spring with an increase in velocity.
Kason Gabbard: Outstanding spring only giving up 5 hits in 10 IP. His promotion would require releasing someone from the pen.
Jon Lieber / Mark Hendrickson / other: Will cost you a Wily Mo and a few young arms. Who trades decent starting pitching in March/April? You can forget a 1a or #2.
Roger Clemens: Doesn’t seem as improbable now - does it?

The Sox may just use what they have internally and weather the storm until Lester is ready. The downside is that may be into June or even July. Even though he’s been pitching already, they won’t rush this kid back.

Are they better?
No. They fixed one need and created another. Unless they trade for a top line starter using Hansen and/or Bryce Cox, they are weaker. The best rotation in the majors is now just good. Lets hope the bullpen just became one of the best in the league.

Why? Why? Why?
Obviously none of the closer candidates separated themselves from the pack this spring and the price of acquiring a closer has been sky high. The questionable piece is that Papelbon will have a restricted workload in order to protect the shoulder. That would make you think this is a 2007 solution only - until Hansen or Cox are groomed. Schill may be gone next season and they'll need him back in the rotation. This doesn't make them better. Maybe they are buying time until the break. Hopefully it pays off and this skepticism will wear off...

The Real Deal...

Dice-K now has 3 major league (albeit spring training) starts under his belt. His latest start against the Pirates yielded one hit on 92 pitches in 5 2/3 IP. Now, the Pirates aren’t exactly the cream of the crop, but only 4 balls made it to the outfield. The surprising thing is how many were baffled by pitches and not just at the plate. Pirates hitters were watching the replay of their at bats on a laptop in the dugout and still could not figure out some of the pitches thrown - ON REPLAY and in SLOW MOTION.

Scouts will tell you he has thrown between 4 and 7 different pitches in an outing. The ones agreed upon are; fastball, curve, slider, and changeup. You’ll also hear four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, splitter, and the “shuto” (described as; kind of like a changeup and kind of like a curveball, and kind of like a split-finger) – not to be confused with the mythical “gyroball”. Regardless, you have hitters saying “I don’t know what that pitch was.” The weapon of the unknown is very powerful. There are going to be some ugly swings and feet in concrete this season.

His other big advantage is his ability to continually keep hitters off balance with his delivery. Apparently he has a stop in his delivery and changes his movements each time he comes to the set position. Guys will not be able to get into a rhythm at the plate which should baffle baserunners as well.

This guy is just different. He’s also got some nasty stuff with fastballs hitting 96, sliders in the mid 80’s, and offspeed stuff in the 70’s. He seems to be smart, savvy, and a cool customer. He’s had a media circus follow him since the age of 18. Pressure has never seemed to affect him in a negative way and he’s seemed to thrive on it.

That being said, lets not create a bust and send it to the Hall just yet. Even Bill James has him slated with a 13-8 record in 2007. But he has all the ingredients to be GREAT. He has a number of obstacles to overcome with the biggest being cultural. The switch from every 6 days to 5 days shouldn’t be an issue but it will be interesting to see how they handle his pitch counts. The biggest question is will he adjust to the MLB style of pitching or will the Sox adjust to the Japanese style.

Get ready Sox fans. This is going to be a fun ride!

No Deal for Schill? Big Mistake...

What is going through the minds of Red Sox management? After spending a windfall of cash in the off-season – and OVERPAYING for new acquisitions, what could they possibly be thinking?

The market prices have obviously spiked so the “value for performance” ratio is now out of whack. Pitching is absolutely ridiculous. Apparently if you have an Era under 7 you’re worth at least $10M per season. Look at some of the deals for these second and third tier pitchers:

Barry Zito – not a true ace by any stretch, but landed $18M per season
Gil Meche – $11M, won 7, 10, and 11 games past 3 seasons...
Ted Lilly – $10M, never won more than 12 games until last year (15), career era 4.60

Schilling is still a good pitcher – and that is the bottom line

He was dinged up last season and still managed 15 wins and a sub 4 Era in the AL. Only 10 or so healthy players had better numbers. Hello Red Sox management – HELLO - that number is 10. If reasonably healthy, shouldn’t he be paid like a top 10 pitcher? What is that value in this market? Probably $18M+ - and yes he is still better than Zito (at least for another year or two)

The Value of Schilling:

He’s not asking for a raise or even fair market value. He wants to pitch in Boston at his current salary. In the current marketplace, he’s not trying to take advantage of the team when most players would. He gets it. He’s a gritty big game pitcher. He’s a great mentor for your young pitching staff. He’s still a lighting rod for the media. He was your best pitcher last season. He’s the model other athletes (the "money hungry" ones) should be emulating. You want him on your team. HE CAN STILL PITCH AT A HIGH LEVEL.

WHERE IS THE DOWNSIDE???


You just overpaid for a guy with a health risk in JD Drew, but you won’t pay below market value for a guy who is still viable? Pitching has never been this much of a commodity. This is the same group willing to pay Clemens $20M for half a season. Even if he falters you’re still going to get better numbers than most of the guys listed above – for the same money.

Let's face it, the Sox will not get equal value for $13M. Who do you REPLACE him with? No one in the farm system will be that good in 2008 (not that they can count on at this point anyway). Lucchino stated the door isn't closed and that they will revisit in the offseason. Nice to know it will be a one way conversation - you DONKEY. Would you come back if you were Schill? Not even at market value.

This team has the money to get this deal done without even blinking. Pitching is at the pinnacle of importance and cost. Do they have a lock on signing Johan Santana at $25M per season and need to save their pennies? Don't hold your breath. This is probably the worst faux-pas of the new ownership. Just awful.

They really screwed the pooch on this one. Our only recourse is to tell them how pissed off we are. So, enjoy Schill while he's here, you won't see him in 2008. Its times like these when those outrageous ticket prices have that extra "sting" to them.

The Steroid Shuffle

How do we make sense of the steroid effect on baseball? Well, the HOF voters have apparently spoken volumes by shunning Mark McGuire. The message is that even without proof the mere appearance of involvement with steroids will keep you out of the Hall.

That’s at first glance however. McGuire has a career .263 BA with only 1,626 hits. It’s his gaudy HR’s (583) that give him consideration for the Hall. Should residing in the top ten HR hitters of all time automatically get you in? You could make a case that he shouldn’t get in. This same argument will be coming for Sosa and Palmeiro soon.

If you ask a number of sportswriters (HOF voters) why they didn’t vote for McGuire, guarantee that this first year is “punishment” for his performance in front of Congress. Instead of giving the guy some credit for trying to do the right thing (and not incriminate himself), they punished him. Remember too that there is no proof, only speculation.

That being said, it’s fairly obvious he had some “help” in the form of steroids and performance enhancing drugs. The argument is when and how much did it help. We’ll never know the answer to those questions. He did hit 49 HR’s in his first full season back in 1987, but his real power surge was between 1996 thru 1999. You can make an educated guess about his stats, but what do you do with them?

How do we view the rest of the players in the steroid era (which will be how the 90’s and early 2000’s will be named)? Isn’t it reasonable to assume that pitchers had the same advantage? By all accounts, more than 50% of players were using some type of enhancement during this stretch. You hate to give Canseco any type of credit, but it appears he was dead on in his book. There was never any punishment while coaches, management, and MLB all turned a blind eye. In that type of environment where performance equals dollars it’s a wonder most athletes weren’t using. While it certainly is not a valid excuse, this was the world they were living in. The ultimate question is how to quantify stats and achievements from this era. If a pitcher and batter are both using, does that negate the effect? So even if you were able to narrow down the who and when it’s still a baffling dilemma.

The Hall Effect…

The HOF voters are an odd bunch. Each has his own view of what is proper and what characteristics have more weight than others. Some change their minds about voting for the same player. There are no standards or criteria, but there are biases and personality conflicts that get in the way. It’s all subjective. Players who were downright nasty to reporters (and everyone else) also seem to get penalized. How else would you explain Albert Belle only getting less than 20% of the vote, while a player like Jim Rice (similar #’s with 500 more at bats) get over 60%? Now that the steroid era has been “exposed” do we now hold players before this era to the higher standard of stats within it? Do we discount the stats from the players from this era?

The good aspect is that players will be judged on an individual basis. Don’t expect the “steroid blanket” to affect all players in the same way. You’d hope that Palmeiro would be treated more harshly than others. He lied to Congress and threw a teammate under the bus after testing positive. Giambi admitted to taking them to a grand jury. Sheffield and Bonds both used the “I didn’t know what I was taking” defense. Bonds also tested positive for amphetamines in 2006 and said he got them from a teammate’s locker. See a pattern here?

By the way, did you miss the whole “players only get reported for a second amphetamines fail” thing?

Pete Rose bet on baseball, but he didn’t cheat. Why is that worse? Anyone testing positive for steroids or enhancers should also be banned from the Hall, no? How about failing the test twice and you’re out? Now that’s a good deterrent and satisfies the “false positive” crap.

Where does this leave us?

Unfortunately in a precarious position. As with many MLB awards there are inherent flaws and therefore snubs. Now we’ve been thrown the steroid curveball to further muddy the waters.

We can’t control any of it which is the most frustrating part. We are at the mercy of the bitter, jaded, cynical, overbearing, and homers called sportswriters. At least that’s what they are when things don’t fit our viewpoint. That will never change, and neither will the current system.

The only question is whether anyone associated with steroids will ever get into the Hall. Will the most prolific HR hitter ever not get in? A few in the top ten? We’ll see. Let’s just hope karma has a hand in it.

The Yanks drop their Unit...

The Randy Johnson era has apparently ended in NY. While his trade request was never “official” it’s clear that he wanted out of the spotlight of NY and back to the seclusion of Arizona and the weak NL lineups.

It’s a great move for the Unit. At 44 and coming off another surgery, the spirit may be willing but the body isn’t listening. He should have a good year against the NL and the climate in Arizona certainly won’t hurt especially in April and May. His numbers will certainly improve over 2006 if he stays somewhat healthy.

But is this a good move for the Yanks? With no viable replacement it’s a big NO. This is the second starter they’ve dealt in a very thin market. While they may have received some value in minor league prospects, they still traded away 2 proven arms for unproven commodities.

Are the Yanks in a mini rebuilding stage? It appears so because these deals don’t make sense in the short term. Did they not learn anything from the Sox trading Arroyo last season? At least the Sox appeared to have an “abundance” of pitching at the time.

The Yanks have 3 solid starters they can count on barring any injuries. Kei Igawa is still a question mark but should end up as a stable number 4 or 5 guy. They can’t be seriously considering getting much out of Pavano. That leaves Philip Hughes being rushed out of the minors. They don’t have an ace. Not much of a game plan. The Yanks must already have a tentative agreement with Clemens. That would explain some things. However, he probably won’t pitch until mid June. That also puts a ton of pressure on Mussina, Pettitte, and Wang to perform above expectations.


Risky Business:

So what’s the plan? Survive until June and count on their offense to carry them. With a new stockpile of minor league talent, they have leverage at the trade deadline. But who is going to trade a top of the line starter? At best you’ll find a fringe #3 guy and that doesn’t push you over the top.

Questions, questions…

Wang – should be fine, putting up similar numbers to last season
Mussina – he’s older and his numbers certainly won’t be better
Pettitte – don’t expect improvement over NL era of 4.20
Igawa – pray that you didn’t get Irabu revisited
Pavano – how much can you expect from a guy who hasn’t pitched in 2 years?
Clemens – are 20 games better than 30 from the Unit? Will he even pitch?
Hughes – will he be rushed? How effective will he be?

That’s just plain ugly. They’re also counting on no injuries. On paper, the bullpen is much improved but how effective will they be if they are overworked?

The Yanks will certainly be competitive in 2007, but will it be too late? Their offense needs to be prolific once again. Unless something drastic changes, they’ll be good but fall short. Expect to be in the rear view mirror for the season…

Yanks are shoring up their rotation...

The Yanks finally pulled the trigger on the poor man’s Matsuzaka. Lefty Kei Igawa reportedly signs a 5 year deal worth $20M before incentives. That’s on top of a posting bid of $26M which now seems inexpensive compared to what the Sox paid. Noting the market for pitching is scarce, the Yanks still get a great deal. The luxury tax hit is only $4M, and his actual pricetag is just over $9M. However, you get what you pay for. Scouting reports project him to be a #4 or #5 starter at best. So the Yanks are essentially gambling $9M per season for a #4 guy. Based on Gil Meche or Ted Lilly dollars, they essentially get similar talent for a couple million less per season. With their resources, there isn’t much of a downside. We’ll find out how he reacts to the pressures of NY. He hasn’t had the same exposure and media frenzy as Matsuzaka.

The Yanks also inked Pettite (based on passing a physical) for a one year $16M deal. At 35, he’s not the same pitcher who left the AL back in 2003. He struggled through injuries in 2004 (15 games / 3.90 ERA), but had a nice bounce back year in 2005 (ERA of 2.39 was his best since 2002).

But 2006 was also a struggle with a 14-13 record, 4.20 ERA, 27 HR’s, with 238 hits in 214 innings. Not the greatest pedigree when switching back to the AL. The Yanks will hope he’s a solid #3, but don’t count on his numbers improving over last season.

The probable rotation and projections:

Wang: 18-5, 3.40 ERA
Mussina: 13-10, 4.50 ERA
Pettite: 12-12, 4.90 ERA
Johnson: 14-11, 4.85 ERA
Igawa: 7-9, 5.50 ERA
Hughes: 3-3, 3.90 ERA

Wang had a terrific 2006 and will be the staff’s anchor. He still has a way to go to become a true #1 guy. His 233 hits in 218 innings are far from being dominant, and his 52 BB compared with his 76 K’s are equally average. At 27, he has the potential to get better. He should improve on his 3.63 ERA in 2007.

Mussina had a career year in 2006 and carried the team on his back last season. His 3.51 ERA was outstanding, but at 38 don’t expect him to duplicate it. The oft injured pitcher pitched in 32 games, his most since 2002. Expect another visit from the injury bug in 2007.

Johnson will be 44 in 2007 and really showed his age in 2006. His ERA of 5.00 was not reflected on his record of 17-11. He was inconsistent all of last season. He didn’t finish well either, giving up 5 runs a game in his last 4 including the playoffs. With off season back surgery, he’ll struggle to stay healthy once again.

Carl Pavano is the ultimate bust. The only thing you can count on is another injury. Poor bastard. However, Yanks management has planned to not have him available, so anything you may get is gravy. But remember that the gravy has lumps.

Philip Hughes is apparently a rising star on the horizon. He went 10-3 with a 2.25 ERA in AA Trenton. He’ll need more seasoning, having pitched only 116 innings, but he may contribute late in 2007.

Will Roger Clemens pitch in 2007? If so, his buddy Pettite will make a strong push to get it done. Although Houston has some dough to spend with Pettite and Bagwell (including insurance claim) off the books. We’ll see if he will choose “loyalty” (perks at home) over more dollars. The wildcard is Boston if they have an injury in June/July.

Overall the Yanks have a fairly solid rotation. Wang should be terrific once again. The big question revolves around the health of the geriatrics. Johnson, Mussina, and Pettite are all on the back 9 of their careers with history of injuries. Igawa is an unknown and hasn’t faced the pressure and media scrutiny of NY. Pavano is like a “box of chocolates” at this point. Still, if this rotation stays somewhat healthy, they should produce over 70 wins especially with a potent offense. Expect another close race in 2007.

Sox land the beast from the East!!!

Welcome to Boston Daisuke!!!

The Sox landed what could be their franchise player. In the process, they also defeated the mighty Scott Boras. That’s almost as satisfying as landing Matsuzaka.

DOWN GOES BORAS! DOWN GOES BORAS!

The Sox front office was masterful in their negotiations. They held their ground and stuck with their original offer. Boras, the baseball anti-christ, played his only hand which was to not negotiate and to threaten to bring his client back to Japan. However, Seibu was in financial trouble and supposedly told Matsuzaka they would not be posting him in 2007, effectively making him wait two more seasons to be a free agent. Add in the pressure of family, friends, and fans back home, it was probably an easy choice for Matsuzaka. Whether he told Boras to make the deal is something we’ll never know, but it’s most likely what transpired.

Will he be the top of rotation guy here like he was in Japan? To take a page from Parcells, let’s not anoint him just yet. However, all the scouting reports are more than glowing, and Craig Shipley (Sox scout) watched him pitch every game last season. The fact that they were willing to pony up $51M speaks volumes.

It is a gamble, especially since he’s never thrown a pitch in the majors. But you have to figure that a significant part of that posting price will be recovered from new revenue sources. All of Japan will be watching (and buying #18 merchandise) when the season starts. His first pitch in the majors will be against Ichiro, and he will face Matsui a number of times each season. When you factor in the posting price with salary, he’s still less than Jason Schmidt / Mike Mussina money at a little over $17M per year. His annual salary (and luxury tax impact) is only $8.7M, which is less than Gil Meche, Ted Lilly, and even Matt Clement. He’s going to be good in the majors, and he’s still worth the money even if he only becomes your #2 guy. If he meets his incentives, its money well spent and averages only $1.3M per season. So, how much of a gamble are they really taking?

The Sox really pulled this one off. Has the front office redeemed itself? That will be determined on the field, but things look promising.

Will Boston be the land of the Rising Gun?

With only hours to go before the deadline, we're hearing all sorts of chatter. From the talks being dead to the Sox upping the ante and making a substantive offer, what do you pay attention to?

It's all been about posturing to this point in the "negotiations". Negotiations? With the Sox submitting a reported $7-$8M per year offer, Boras has simply not countered. He's only stated in a press conference that his player is worth in the neighborhood of $100M over 5 or 6 years. He feels that Matsuzaka should be paid like a top 5 MLB experienced starter. But at $16M+ a season, he's been smoking some strong stuff. Include the posting price of $51M, his annual salary would equal $25M per season. Right. Que up Aerosmith's Dream On...

The Scott Boras angle:

Top 5 pitching talent
Worth $16M+ per season
Posting pricetag of $51M should not be a factor
Ichiro was MVP caliber his first season and is still underpaid
No counteroffer - at least until things get very tense
Keep Matsuzaka away from potential pressures - home, fans, Seibu & the press
Provide favorable "contract info" only to Matsuzaka
He cares about the almighty dollar only, he has no conscience
No thought regarding the impact on the player
He can blame the posting system as being flawed

The Sox angle:

He's an unproven MLB talent
There are cases of failure (see Irabu, aka the Fat Toad)
Posting pricetag is absolutely part of the deal
They put the "full court press" on this guy - over bidding, Lucchino trip to Japan
Guarantee a certain amount, the rest in incentives (unproven commodity)
Boras has less leverage - no other teams are bidding
Matsuzaka said "sayonara" to Seibu and Japanese fans
Returning to Japan because of greed will not endear him to the fans
Seibu needs cash to stay solvent and competitive
"Honor" is a driving force for both Matsuzaka and Seibu
Last minute trip to meet Boras saves face for future Japanese player deals


Who's going to blink first?

Every party wants to get this deal done, but on their own terms. Whoever has the most to lose will blink first. That will probably be Matsuzaka. Why?

It's been his dream to play in the majors. He's said his farewell to the fans of Japan and Seibu. He will lose face if he returns to Seibu. The Japanese fans will take exception to him being greedy, Seibu will struggle financially, and may even be "forced" to cut his salary. It would be very ugly for him to return. In the end, he may need to tell Boras to accept a reasonable offer.

The Sox are sitting in an interesting position. They positioned themselves to be the good guys by posting a huge amount, sending Lucchino to Japan, and now upping the ante in person at Boras's doorstep. So if the deal falls thru, Boras is the bad guy and Matsuzaka is either naive or greedy. Oh yeah, they also lose a potential top of the rotation starter. But with Lester apparently healthy, they may be able to push the need for a starter to 2008 after Schill is retired. There's always the Clemens angle, but he may decide to join Pettite in NY.

Scott Boras has nothing to lose. He doesn't care about anything other than his commission. While he has less leverage than normal, he still has enough. He knows that he can squeeze more money out of this in another year and even more after two when Matsuzaka is a true free agent. He also has "the posting system needs to be changed" out, to which he can become the "champion" of changing it. What the Sox also fear is that Boras is shielding his client from what is really going on. Does he know that Boras has not made a counter offer? Has Boras been saying the Sox offer is an insult? That's why the Sox brass have flown to LA in the hopes of speaking to Matsuzaka in person during negotiations. They hope his friends have been on the internet and are calling him as well.

Will he pitch in Boston in 2007?

At age 26, growing up within Japanese culture, conventional wisdom would indicate Matsuzaka's willingness to make a reasonable deal. It's likely the Sox have offered a $10-$11M annual deal which dwarfs his current $3M deal. Has Boras warped his thinking? Is he getting good or bad advice from somewhere else? We should know by tomorrow if Matsuzaka & Boras return to Boston for a physical.

We're guessing he'll be on the mound in Fenway the second week of Apr. You can bet that Sushi will make it's way as well, so bring your chopsticks...

Sox ink Drew and Lugo...

The winter meetings finally bear some fruit, and the Nation still retains our in-house "fruit" Manny. These two signings give the Sox a significant upgrade over last year.

If you say the Sox overpaid for both players, you're 100% correct. Neither will "live up to" their contract amount. Welcome to free agency in 2006. If you look at all the big free agent deals being signed, not many players will be worth their pricetag. You're going to see a number of high priced and mediocre pitching available at trading deadlines in the years to come. And you thought Matt Clement was expensive...


JD Drew

Sox get a significant upgrade in RF. He'll bring a .285 BA, 20+ HR, 100+ RBI, and .390+ OBP. He's a solid defender and now provides protection for Manny batting in the 5 spot. He makes a patient lineup even more patient, driving the pitch count even higher.

His rumored downside is that he's injury prone and has no drive. Let's take a look at his injuries:
2002 - 15 day DL (knee)
2003 - offseason surgery - started playing Apr 20th (knee), 15 day DL (oblique)
2004 - 8 games (neck/hamstring)
2005 - 5 games (knee), hit by pitch (broken wrist) in July - missed rest of season
2006 - 5 games (shoulder/quad)

Other than a broken wrist in 2005 his injuries are really minor. Yes, his career high is 146 games but that was also last season. In 2006 0nly 3 Sox players had more than 150 games played, and in 2005 only 4 (Damon had 148). Not so eye popping now, eh?

In terms of his drive and heart, who knows. There are sportswriters that don't like him and others like Gammons who praise him. But remember that he carried the offensive burden by himself in LA and the pressure that went with it. Now he's a #5 hitter with two of the best offensive forces in the majors hitting in front of him. Pressure is gone baby. He should thrive in Boston.

The other nagging question out there is why didn't they sign Damon last year. Should the Sox have known the market would be this pricey? Probably. So, is Drew worth the extra $2M per season? Probably not especially since Damon is a good leadoff man and he's now with your rival. But, the bottom line is that they landed the best player available. Just don't make the mistake of judging him on salary or if Damon is the better option. He's a solid productive player. Blame Theo for the faux pas, not him.


Julio Lugo

Theo's infatuation finally made it here. He's a good shortstop but have you ever understood the attraction? He's speedy and is a decent leadoff guy that will bring you a .275 BA, 10 HR, and 40 RBI. Apparently he's a high energy and good clubhouse guy as well. His numbers may also increase slightly with this lineup. However, expect to get about 20 errors out of him. Maybe you can attribute that to getting to more balls, but he's a still drop defensively over Gonzalez. Offensively he's an upgrade but mostly in consistency and batting average. At times, Gonzalez was a sure out last season. Overall they're better offensively and baserunning, but took a hit defensively. It looks pretty even on the surface, but management seems to be very high on him. They're definitely a better club with him despite the $9M pricetag.


The Sox still have some work to do, but their lineup is in good shape right now. Here's what you'll see on opening day if nothing changes:

Lugo
Crisp
Ortiz
Ramirez
Drew
Tech
Lowell
Youkilis
Pedroia

Don't forget about Wily Mo, Hinske, and Cora...

Next up: Pitching, pitching, pitching...

To trade Manny, or not to trade Manny...

Well the Manny gate rumors have reared their ugly head once again. With the recent outlandish free agent signing $'s, Manny's contract is now seen as a bargain. That's scary. His contract has seemingly been the albatross in striking any trade deals, even as recent as last season. What a difference a year makes. MLB insiders also seem to think this trend of spending will continue in the near future making his contract #'s even more tradeable.

The debate of whether to keep him or trade him will rage on. It's been rumored that he made be traded as early as Saturday (when they will supposedly sign JD Drew).

Why Should they trade Manny?

1) His flighty attitude.
2) He seemingly quit on his teammates at the end of last season.
3) He's become such a distraction that he affects team chemistry.
4) The Manny being Manny episodes are not a matter of if, but when.
5) His production may start to slip in the next couple of seasons.
6) His trade value may not ever be higher, and a younger viable option is available.

Why should they keep him?

1) You can't replace his production or talent for hitting (Andruw Jones is not the same threat or producer).
2) David Ortiz's walks will increase and his production will decrease. You're losing the equivalent of 1.25 players.
3) You won't get equal value in return, and teams (like the Dodgers) are claiming the pricetag is too high.
4) He's a 10-5 guy and can veto any trade - should they expend time & energy in the first place? He may require additional terms (exercise option & possible extension years) before waiving his no-trade. He also may just change his mind about it daily.
5) Just to piss off local sports writers like Shaughnessy.

The question is, does management think his antics outweigh his production. It's clear his teammates were frustrated with him at the end of last season, but to the point they don't want him back? We'll never really know. The only measuring stick will be what kind of deal they pull off. If he isn't traded, that most likely means they weren't willing to part with him for less than full value, and he's not the "cancer" some portray him to be.

Sportwriters like Shaughnessy don't like Manny, so when reading their articles bear that in mind. Manny doesn't speak to the media so there is no dispute or point of view to what's written either. Shaughnessy would have you believe Manny doesn't want to be here (another season of trade rumors), he gave up on his teammates and he gave up on YOU, the fan. What a load of crap. It makes for a good article in November, but do you really buy it? What he's actually doing is making it easier for the Sox brass to unload him for less than fair value - in the eyes of the fan.

There is only 1 consideration here if you're Theo. Will Manny's antics disrupt the clubhouse to the point of derailing the team? Will his "phantom" injuries return at a critical point of the season?

A) If no, then keep him unless you're blown away by an offer. His option year is also now a bargain.
B) If yes, how much under fair value are you willing to take?

From a fan's perspective, do you really care about the Manny being Manny episodes? It's not like you work with the guy directly. You're not paying his salary. What it really comes down to is his production and ability to help the team win. You may only get 140 games out of him, but at the end of the day is there a better option?

Unless they get some stud pitching in return, they're nuts if they trade him. That's two more seasons of Manny coming your way...

Hot Stove - The Rotation...

Scary, but it’s that time already. The Sox have more holes to fill this offseason than they’ve had in a while. Payroll sits around $100M right now, and the new luxury tax number has risen to $148M. Where will they fit in? It’s probably safe to assume $20M will go towards starting pitching. Let’s delve right in to what the Sox are looking at:

Starters:

1) Beckett
2) Schilling
3) Papelbon
4) Wake
5) ???

Not such a bad rotation as it stands. It’s probably good enough to get to the playoffs by adding a solid #5. Let’s also assume that Lester doesn’t help in 2007. Also remember that Schill posted the best Sox starters ERA last season which was just under 4…

Potentials:

Daisuke Matsuzaka – the prize of the free agents. Only 26, his 17-5 record, 2.13 ERA, and 200K in 186 IP is impressive. Even though the Sox won the bidding, they still need to negotiate length & dollars per season.

Impact: Hasn’t done it with MLB players yet, but all the scouts think he’s the real deal.
Cost: $51M (doesn’t affect payroll #’s). Boras reportedly asking $16M per year.
Analysis: Best option. Don’t give up any prospects, open new revenue stream overseas, and keep away from competition - especially Yanks. $51M doesn’t count against the cap…


Adam Eaton – 28, injured during spring training (surgery on finger), didn’t pitch until July. Went 7-4 with a 5.12 ERA, after spending 6 seasons with the Padres.

Impact: End of rotation guy, NL ERA of low 4’s.
Cost: $4.7 last year, could be a “cheap” option at $6M - $7M
Analysis: Only 28, but the transition to the AL coupled with a finger injury inflated his ERA. He’s also never pitched 200 innings, or won more than 11 games. Apparently Theo has met with him already. Not sure what he sees here. Don’t we have a similar guy on the farm already?


Gil Meche – 28, was 11-8, 4.48 Era with Seattle. With a thin market, his $3.7M salary should at least double.

Impact: Middle of rotation guy, can lock up for a few years. Schill will be gone in 08, might fit in nicely behind Beckett, Papelbon, and Lester.
Cost: $8M+
Analysis: He’s been pitching in the AL so no “adjustment” will happen. Downside – never pitched 200 innings, only won 15 games once. Only a 4 or 5 guy at best. He’s still young and may be the only “bargain” out there.


Vincente Padilla – 29, was 15-10, 4.50 ERA with Texas, career 4.06 ERA. Reportedly looking for $10M per season. Made the transition back to AL improving on his 4.71 from Philly. Appears to have overcome injuries in 2004 & 2005.

Impact: Could be a solid # 3. There aren’t many 15 game winners that fall out of the sky, especially within the AL.
Cost: $10M+
Analysis: May become too expensive after bidding starts. How much do you want to pay for a #3? See: Matt Clement…





National League


Tom Glavine – is a homecoming in the cards? He’s reportedly torn between the Mets and Braves. His 15-7 record went along with 3.82 ERA. At 40, it makes little sense for him to switch to the AL. He’ll probably cost around $11- $12M.

Woody Williams – went 12-5 with a 3.65 era in 145 innings. At 40, he’s had a steady decline in innings every season since 2003. Might be a good option in the pen however.

Mark Mulder – had season ending surgery (rotator cuff), this guy may have lost it, but has still been mentioned in rumors… Went 6-7 with a 7+ ERA with the Cards. Yikes.


Longshot Department

Roger Clemens – were you tired of the back and forth stories last season? Well, hang on because here they come again. He’s the master at extracting the most dollars he can. Houston has probably had its fill, but he’ll pit the Sox vs. Yanks, with the Rangers a distant third once again. Odds are he’d join the Sox, but at a price the Sox would pay? His NL numbers will certainly jump. Is he a legit #2 in the AL now? Remember too that he broke down only playing a few months.

Jason Schmidt – at 33, he’s not any getting better especially if he switches to the AL. Someone will overpay to the tune of $13- $14M. Probably Houston because they just unloaded a ton of payroll.

Barry Zito – at 28, he’s proven to be durable. His ERA of 3.83 is probably close to what you can expect going forward. A true #1 in the NL, he’s not in the AL. Do you start him in a decisive playoff game? Although he was top 10 in ERA, he’s not a top 10 pitcher. But, he’ll get paid like he is, similar to the $13 - $14M of Schmidt. A left handed flyball pitcher at Fenway spells disaster. Mets are probably the best fit.

Jake Peavy – only 25, he dominated the prior 2 seasons. His ERA ballooned to over 4 from a sub 3 last season. He did have a good Sept with a 2.43 ERA, but did not perform well in the playoffs. This rumor popped up last season, but why would SD part with a 25 year old starter? Who do the Sox give up? Don’t hold your breath…

Ted Lilly – 30, this Sox killer will be commanding big dollars ($11-$12M?). His 4.31 era was in the top 20 in the AL. Someone will overpay, but not the Sox. He’s probably a fringe 3 guy at best. Still, rumors persist that Theo is interested…


In the Clubhouse / On the farm…

Jon Lester – let’s just hope this kid is OK. Treatment and recovery is 6-8 months (Feb – Apr timeframe). That’s when we find out just if he’s healthy or not. He’ll be unable to even eat properly or train until then. Even if he does pitch in 07, he probably won’t be back at his 2006 form.

Julian Tavares – pitched very well in the rotation going 3-0 in his last 5 starts, giving up more than 2 runs (3 & 4) only in two of his starts. He’ll probably start in the pen and be a backup plan for the rotation.

Hansack/Gabbard/Alvarez/Pauley/Snyder/J. Johnson/DiNardo – hopefully someone from this heap will have a great spring. Some of these guys showed some poise after being thrown in the fire. Their best bet is that someone will stand out by June.


Coming next, The Pen…

Matsuzaka Mania Baby! The hot stove is heated!

The Sox pull off step 1 in the Matsuzaka sweepstakes. The sweeps ticket cost somewhere between $42M - $50M+ depending on who you believe. The Seibu Lions will probably won't be tight lipped about their windfall, so we'll know soon.

The Sox now need to clear the Scott Boras hurdle, which apparently is set somewhere around $14M per season. At 26, you'd think the Sox would want to lock him up for at least 4 seasons. On the other hand if he's not a top of the rotation talent, how many years do you risk to overpay?

This is a bold move by the Sox and it accomplishes a number of important tasks:

1) They get a potential #1 guy at 26 - unheard of especially these days
2) Don't give up any young talent to get him
3) Keep him away from rivals - especially the Yanks
4) The $42M+ does not impact payroll, and the Sox must feel they can "recover" the investment from the overseas market (TV rights, media, merchandise)

Will he be a success? Based on his numbers, the scouting reports, and the number of teams throwing money around, the safe bet is yes.

Couple of quick hits...

The gyro ball is fictional. When asked during the WBC, Matsuzaka laughed and said he'd work on one.

Apparently the best players in Japan are obsessed over, and the fan base is 10 times as rabid as we are here. So those of you worried about the pressure at Fenway, can rest easy.

And be friendly to the influx of Japanse tourists about to roll in. Sushi coming to Fenway?

Stay tuned for more hot stove updates...

Gold Glove? More like aluminium foil...

By definition, the Gold Glove Award honors the top fielders at each position in each league. Since 1965, managers and coaches have decided the winners.

Well, they suck at it. This process is exactly like all-star voting. Players get awarded more for their star power, not performance.

How are coaches evaluating these guys? By the look of things, probably not by defensive stats...

For a closer look, here are 5 main stats used to evaluate defensive prowess:

1) Fielding percentage - the higher the #, the less mistakes you make
2) Errors - self explanatory
3) Total Chances - # of opportunities to field the ball
4) Range factor - how many balls you can get to
5) Zone rating - % of balls fielded in their "zone" (no idea...)

A reasonable person would evaluate the first 3, because who the hell knows what 4 & 5 really are. The other one not listed is the "eyeball test". You know by watching a player how good they really are. But it's also no secret who can get to a ball and who can't. Players who have less errors because they lost a step and can't reach a ball up the gap shouldn't be rewarded. There are some subjective areas, but lets be honest, it's a popularity contest.

In a perfect world you would start with your eyeballs, and then look at the stats. Unless a player is on your team, you don't see him play every day. The eyeball test only goes so far.

Lets take a look at some of the more glaring examples out there in the AL...


Pitcher:

Kenny Rogers takes it home this year. He had 5 errors in the regular season. There were 30+ pitchers who had less errors, with 11 of those recording "zero" errors. So, 11 guys who were essentially perfect got passed by with someone who made 5 errors. Maybe the makers of pine tar have a lobbyist...

Shortstop:

Derek Jeter is a great player, maybe even one of the best ever. But his best fielding days went bye bye a while ago. Take a peek at his stats and those he beat out:

D. Jeter: .975 FPC, 14 E, 610 TC
A. Gonzalez: .985 FPC, 7E, 475 TC
M. Young: .981 FPC, 14E, 747 TC
J. Uribe: .977 FPC, 14E, 604 TC

Outfield:

The same trio has now won the award the past 3 seasons. Here are some of the top performers (before we get to the winners):

C. Granderson: .997 FPC, 1 E, 389 TC
M. Cabrera: .996 FPC, 1 E, 230 TC
B. Anderson: .994 FPC, 2 E, 310 TC
R. Ibanez: .994 FPC, 2 E, 314 TC
M. Kotsay: .993 FPC, 2 E, 289 TC
C. Crawford: .990 FPC, 3 E, 314 TC

And your winners...

I. Suzuki: .992 FPC, 2 E, 260 TC
T. Hunter: .989 FPC, 4 E, 355 TC
V. Wells: .988 FPC, 4 E, 340 TC

Other Infielders:

The results are fairly close, but NONE of these winners were better in more than ONE of the statistical categories. You could make a clear case that someone else was better.

The one award that does make sense goes to I-Rod. He is not only better but superior in almost every major category. Throwing out a runner more than 50% of the time is amazing. So, you can feel warm and cozy about one of them.

What to do, what to do...

Do we continue to bitch about these awards every year? Do we let it continue? Does it really matter?

If there are those of you really tired and fet up with this, get out your pens and fire up your emails. Contact Rawlings (the sponsor) and MLB (coaches who vote).

Executive Office
Rawlings Sporting Goods Co., Inc.
P.O. Box 22000
St. Louis, MO 63126

Major League Baseball Advanced Media, LP.
75 Ninth Avenue
New York, NY 10011
212-485-3444

Wrapup of 2006 Yanks, playoff records...

We're officially putting Jayson Stark, ESPN.com writer, on our staff. His latest article (see link below) puts the Yanks futile playoff efforts into perspective. And, oh my, it's some great stuff...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2006/insider/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=2620662&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab2pos1

A few highlights...

1) The Yankees are the first team ever to win 95-plus for six straight seasons without winning a World Series in any of them.

2) These 2004-05-06 Yankees are the fourth team in the division-play era to win 95 or more three straight years without even playing in a World Series, let alone winning one.

3) So what have we established? We've established that these Yankees now belong in the same conversation as the most tragic October figures of all time.

4) Even the Red Sox have never had anything like this happen to them. And, of course, they never had A-Rod around, either.

5) Yankees just set a record for most consecutive postseason series in which they led the series at some point. If the Yankees have led in all those series, it means that, in each of the seven postseason series Joe Torre's Yankees have lost, they had to come from AHEAD to lose all seven.

6) You probably could have figured this, but the Yankees are now the first team ever to lose a postseason series in which they were ahead in six straight seasons.

7) The Yankees' streak isn't just a baseball record. It's a record for all four major North American pro sports.

Let's reflect on some of that fabulous info for a moment. The Yanks are actually building a case to be one of the worst postseason performers EVER, in any sport. Now that's quite a statement.

And you Yankee fans thought "The Greatest Choke of All Time" would be the worst it gets. Nope. It's almost to the point where we want the Yanks in the playoffs to see how bad it can get. Not to mention the building angst among Yankee fans...

Should I stay or should I go now? Torre is gone & then he's back...

Should we call in the clash on this one? First, Newsday reports he's gone then Georgie says "OK I guess he can stay". What an overwhelming endorsement. After so many seasons with a $200M payroll and playoff futility, the ax will eventually fall, maybe even by midseason 2007.

Cashman also claimed that A-Rod will not be traded. But his statement "We're going to figure this thing out together" is baffling. Figure what out? That he can't handle the pressure when it means the most? His 4 for 41 and no RBI in his last 12 playoff games speaks volumes, not to mention Torre moving him to 8th in the lineup. His regular season numbers are outstanding (aside from league leading 24 errors) and the downside is that he kills the clubhouse chemistry. He'll help get you to the playoffs but will fold like a house of cards once you get there. Not good from a "superstar"... (By the way, what's up with A-Rod asking for privacy while shopping in NYC?)

$urgeries?

Both the Big Unit (back) and Giambi (wrist) are both headed for the knife. Big Unit is probably entering his last season, and will be the #4 starter. It's almost like watching MJ in his last season for the Wizards, but worse. Giambi battles yet another injury. Guess that HGH can't fix everything.

Option$?

Looks like the Yanks will turn down the option on Mussina, but will renegotiate a deal for lesser dollars. Will they give him more than 1 year? Risky for a 38 year old with a history of breaking down.

Do they bring back Sheffield? He certainly can't play first, and even the Yanks won't spend $13M for a disgruntled 4th OF. Don't be surprised to see him in RF at Fenway next season...

Jaret Wright? They either pay him $7M to pitch for them or $4M to go away. He'll be back for the extra $3M, especially with the scarce pitching free agent market.

Rambling$...

Carl Pavano? Will the Yanks ever see him pitch? They still have to sort thru his "accident". Have any faith in the offseason conditioning program to prevent injury to his shoulder, elbow, back, and buttocks?

Will the Yanks pursue Zito (will vastly overpay) or Schmidt (damaged goods from NL)? Right now, the 2007 rotation looks like: Wang, Mussina, Wright, Johnson, Karstens (with Hughes waiting in the wings). Yanks fans should pray for Zito and bullpen help...

Yanks are still a very old team and Cashman has a lot of work to do. It looks to be a very interesting and long offseason...

Letterman gets in on the act...

The always funny top 10, from Mon Oct 11th...

Top Ten New York Yankees Excuses (for choking in round 1)

10. Wanted Columbus Day off to get to all the sales
9. Thought series was best 6 out of 11
8. We've already missed the first three episodes of "Grey's Anatomy" -- enough is enough
7. Thought Joe Torre told us to give 10 percent
6. Players distracted by erotic text messages from Mark Foley
5. Shouldn't have switched to the cheaper generic steroids
4. Clubhouse caterer replaced E. coli-tainted spinach with E. coli-tainted lettuce
3. Uh, global warming?
2. More focused on how they're going to get by on a lousy $16 million a year
1. What's the point? North Korea's gonna nuke us at any moment

Thanks Dave...

Murderers who? Tigers take 3 in a row!

Wow. Was that the Tigers on steroids or the worst postseason performance by an offensive juggernaut ever?

These are the Tigers that were freefalling and limped into the playoffs. The Yanks were well rested and had arguably the best offense in decades.

Must have been the tension in the clubhouse A-Rod referred to. Or was it everyone besides Jeter? Games 3 & 4 were just embarassing. They didn't even show up...

A-Rod now hitting in the 8 spot was 1-14, Giambi 1-8, Sheffield couldn't catch anything at first, and Torre inserted Melky for an offensive spark. Melky?

Torre always gets the credit when they win, but he should get the lions share of blame for this one. A-Rod will be the villian and take most of the heat. He should take some, but Torre is the one that lost control of the clubhouse, and ultimately team chemistry. The Tigers had more energy, more emotion, and just plain wanted it more.

Thats 3 straight playoff series losses now, and 3-10 in their last 13 postseason games. Keep counting those AL East crowns (and ALDS losses).

A few randoms...

Best sign in the playoffs? "Hey Johnny you left your playoff beard in Beantown"... Priceless...

Best random moment? Jim Leyland goes to the fence to kiss his wife & kids thru the fence after clinching. Nice moment. Then some random dude sticks his lips thru the fence & Leyland kisses him on the hat. Hilarious...

Best fan celebration? Detroit. The players hive fiving the fans, then spraying them down with champagne standing on the dugouts. Congrats Detroit, its been a while. It's also a little bit sweeter beating the Yanks...

Uh oh, it's a deep 2-1 hole...

Kenny Rogers was masterful. That was easily his best clutch performance and had to be one of the best ever in the playoffs. That high powered offense of the ages looked baffled. Murderers row hasn't advanced a runner in over 9 innings...

A-Rod made what looked like a nice tag play at 3rd but the runner was safe and ultimately scored. Bernie hit a deep shot to left (which he thought was gone when he hit it) that just missed the foul pole. That Yankee mystique of old is apparently in hiding. They're not getting the breaks they're used to getting.

The Big Unit is showing his age and obviously couldn't overcome his back issues. The once great warrior couldn't get thru 6, giving up 8H & 5R. Will he return next season?

Now the season rests on the arm of Wright. Good luck with that one. Looks like the stumbling Tigers can pull this one out...

Your rival's team not in the playoffs?

This is absolutely priceless. It was sent to us by one of you faithful Yankee folks out there (would have caught it sooner but was sitting in the spam folder).










Get it here: http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/fan_forum/lasorda/

But don't worry Yankee fans, you'll be getting one soon enough...

Yanks evade red-hot Twins, get stumbling Tigers...

Yup, even Siegfried and Roy aren't too worried about these Tigers...

Coming off a terrible collapse and backing into the playoffs (very uncharacteristic for a Leyland team), things look lined up nicely for the Yanks. With Sheff and Matsui back, they have the most formidable lineup in the playoffs. There was no Sox series to wear them down. They've been able to rest their players. The stars are all aligned...

But there are only 3 things that win in October. Pitching, pitching, and pitching. With an ailing Unit and worn out pen, the Yanks pin their season on Mussina, Wang, and scoring a ton of runs. Don't see it carrying them too far...

They should be able to beat the reeling Tigers unless their young rotation steps it up. Verlander is more than capable of tossing some zero's. But they've been pitching worse than the Yanks have of late. Their lineup features 6 guys that hit 19 or more homers, so they can easily do some damage.

Anything can happen in a short series. Bad breaks, injuries, surprise contributors... A Detroit victory certainly wouldn't be shocking.

But just like St. Louis, these Tigers should be breaking out the golf clubs soon...