Who's your Daddy?

Sox take first 5 of 6, and keep Yanks in the basement. The spanking continued on Sunday with the Sox getting the better of Wang and the overused bullpen. The Yanks are a Tampa Bay like 6 1/2 games out in April, yes April. And by the way, Tampa Bay is looking down on you...

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The Sox have the major's best record and 3rd in pitching. The Yanks boast second in runs, but are sitting way back in 27th in pitching. We'll take pitching thank you. The Yanks now take their 3-8 road record - on the road.

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It's an April to remember for Sox fans. It's too bad we don't see the Yanks for 3 more weeks. Back to Yankee Stadium for another whoopin, can wait...

Yanks reeling, lose 4th straight to Sox

It doesn't get much better if you're a Sox fan. The Yanks are in an absolute freefall and its not even May. Let's see if we can put together a top ten list for the Yanks...

10) In the middle of a 7 game losing streak.

9) They trail the Sox by 6 1/2 games.

8) Only KC has less wins - in the MAJORS!

7) They are looking up at Tampa Bay

6) Mariano Rivera has an Era over 12 and 2 blown saves!

5) Only team in the majors without a save, and lead the majors in bullpen innings

4) The Daily News has dubbed them "The no fight club"

3) Damon is headed to the DL - for the first time ever

2) Torre may be sent walking by Steinbrenner

1) Carl Pavano

Ouch. They better start putting police details on the bridges around NY. Yanks fans are going to start jumping any day now. They NEED to take the next 2 vs the Sox but its not going to happen. It really feels like a sweep coming...

The pitching woes continue and no one has been able to step it up. When they really needed Pettite, he stumbled. They've gambled with Philip Hughes who pitched OK for his first start but couldn't go 5 innings. Back in Spring Training, Torre stated 2 reasons why they wouldn't rush Hughes to the bigs - Kerry Wood & Mark Prior. He said they were rushed and blew out their arms. Well, it's April and here he is. Scary stuff.

The Sox look to continue the beatings today with the best record in the majors. If they put the hammer down on the next 2 games, the Yanks may not be able to claw back. From an 8 1/2 game defecit in April, Clemens better have a twin. But if you're Clemens looking for a ring, why would you even think about joining a team that far back?

Might be time to start dusting off the golf clubs in NY...

Schilling Sock Scandal?

A "prominent" Baltimore O's play-by-play broadcaster Gary Thorne (also NHL announcer) said on the air (during last nights broadcast) that he had been told by Red Sox catcher Doug Mirabelli that the substance on Schilling's sock was paint, not blood.

He was of course referring to game 6 of the 2004 playoffs vs the Yanks. Here's the exchange:

"It was painted. Doug Mirabelli confessed up to it after. It was all for PR. Two-ball, two-strike count."

So matter of fact isn't it? Here's Mirabelli's response after the game:

"What? Are you kidding me? He's [expletive] lying. A straight lie, I never said that. I know it was blood. Everybody knows it was blood."

So who is the donkey here? We have a hard time believing Mirabelli would say that even if it were true. Others are saying that Thorne would never just make something up. Why hasn't this "news" ever been reported before? Is it reasonable to believe that a 9 inch suture started to bleed from an area that moves with every pitch? Yup. Sounds like a big load of crap and Thorne should feel some pain for making such an unproven statement.

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All that aside, it does not and never will take away from what Schilling did to get ready for that game. Is there another athlete on the planet that would risk that kind of surgery? Doubtful. Throw in the size of the stage and the performance, and you couldn't have written a better script. It's one of the best sports stories of all time. It eclipses Carlton Fisk & Kirk Gibson's homers put together. He was gutsy and heroic. It's a moment that will never be forgotten or unappreciated.

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The point is it doesn't matter about the sock. It's all about what's behind it. For all of you naysayers, call CSI...

Fireworks at the Fens complete the sweep...

Well Yanks fans, how you feelin? While it is only April, it's nice to put the Yanks a comfortable 4 games back. The MLB tying 4 back to back homers was a nice exclamation point - especially against your bitter rival. How sweet was that? Surprisingly, it was the Sox bats and not their arms that took the series.


For those of you thinking it's not that bad for the Yanks right now, where would they be if A-Rod was not laser hot? At least 3 games worse - which is still in last place (hee hee). What an amazing start for him. We may never see this type of performance again.


The Yanks do get Wang back this week, but Mussina and Pavano still remain on the shelf. It must be frustrating having a guy like Pavano on your team. Now it also appears that Cashman is being forced to rush Hughes to the majors. He better hope that some rough performances won't ruin his pshyche.


By the way what's up with Colter Bean, aka Baby Huey? Schilling is in better shape & he's almost twice his age. Strange body style for a pitcher. Even David Wells has raised an eyebrow.


The season is still in it's infancy, we know. But it's nice to pound your rivals - especially with a sweep. Can the Yanks rebound from the beating? Not unless pitching gets much better. It will improve with Wang, but with 3 rooks in the rotation how much are you expecting? When is Mariano going to get out of his funk? Will Damon be able to overcome back issues and his .250 BA?

This weekend? Now that the Sox bats are getting some life, the Yanks should still struggle to get 1 win. Torre probably doesn't even know what the rotation will be yet.

The Yanks always seem to be able to stay in the race. It looks different this year with their staff. Their bullpen is already overworked because their starters can't go 5 innings, with Pettite already making 2 appearances. If they fall back too far this early, there may be too much ground to make up. They don't have the horses even when healthy to be a dominant staff, and they'll need to be dominant to catch up. Don't think there is panic in the NY Offices? This thing could be over by July. Get out your healing prayer books, or it could be a long summer in NY and a relaxing one in Boston...

Round 1 begins...

It would be nice if the scheduling folks at MLB would wait at least until May before these teams get together...

But here we go. The teams are separated only by a game (shocking) but they have been winning by very different means. The Yanks have been riding the hot bat of A-Rod and winning in late inning fashion. The Sox have been riding their pitching staff. We think it's great that A-Rod is getting all of those HR's and RBI's out of his system in April. Just in time for his arrival at the Fens. We'll stick with pitching thank you very much.

The Sox expected to have a good rotation, but the entire staff has been outstanding yielding a 2.58 Era (second in the majors). The Yanks lineup is also dominating, leading the league in runs. But we all know what wins come Sept.

The Yanks have also been bitten by the injury bug. Injuries to the pitching staff have been overcome (to this point) by their bats. How long do you expect that to continue? Pavano is out again (big surprise there), Mussina has a nagging hammy, and Wang has just started rehab. How long before Pettite goes down? Don't be shocked to be sitting in 3rd or even 4th place if things don't improve...

The Sox have to be very pleased at this point. Pitching is strong and the bats haven't even come around yet. Manny is hitting .200 and finally hit his first HR of the season. It's only a matter of time before he gets into a groove. New acquisition JD Drew is leading the charge offensively and looks to be earning his pay. Our new Gun from the Rising Sun has looked good, only suffering losses while giving up 3 and 2 runs. He's the real deal. The Yanks will find out this weekend.

While you can only take so much away from the first 15 or so games, things are looking good in the Nation. The Yanks are hanging in for now, but they always seem to find a way. While the Yanks may be fortunate to sneak into the playoffs, the Sox are looking at a special season. If the offense gets hot, look out.

The Yanks will be lucky to take 1 of 3 from the Sox this weekend. But it's only round one baby. See you in round 2...

Where is Spring? Weather is keeping teams in training…

Well it’s been a week of frigid temps across most of the country. How many games can you remember EVER being called on account of COLD? Just odd. The Sox opener was 80 degrees, followed up by 30’s and 40’s, to a threat of snow in Texas. Someone get Al Gore on the phone. Where’s the warming?

You folks in NY better hope that the weather is the reason NONE of your starters have lasted more than 5 innings, and only one has actually completed 5. Despite some last inning heroics by A-Fraud, you’d be looking at an AL worst 1-4 record vs. Tampa and Baltimore. You can just feel the panic settling in over the Bronx. Does Pettite leaving after 4 and then making an appearance out of the pen alarm you? How about the starters 36 hits allowed in 21 innings or their ERA just under 10?

While the first week isn’t usually a litmus test for the entire year, it still must be tough being a Yanks fan right now. Cashman is not sleeping well these days. Matsui is down and Damon is ailing already. Your beacon of hope is facing Ponson later tonight.

The Sox are showing signs of life however. Papi finally started to hit, Papelbon is awesome once again, and Schill bounced back tossing a gem. Matsuzaka is a budding star and the #5 spot will be in limbo (Tavares/Snyder) awaiting the return of Lester. The rotation is looking very solid, and the pen should be better once Timlin is back later this week. Drew is off to a great start and Pedroia has been a nice surprise.

Will anyone remember week one later this year? No. Some teams have reason to be more optimistic than others, but it’s very early. Numbers don’t mean much right now, but they will soon. Stay tuned – things are looking interesting right now!

Agony on the way to 755: Starring “B Cubed”…

Can you ever remember anyone approaching a milestone or record that had an overwhelming consensus wishing it didn’t happen? The closest is probably when Roger Maris broke the HR record, but that was mostly Yankee fans up in arms. Everyone likes when a record is broken – especially the big ones.

Now it’s the complete opposite where Giants fans are the only ones that are rooting for him to break it. That makes you wonder what would happen if he was on your favorite team. Would he still be booed in your home stadium? You’d like to think so, but just give that some thought before passing judgment on those San Fran fans. What would they have thought about him if he went to an AL team as a DH? Might not be as rosy a picture…

Regardless, we are going to be deluged with Bonds HR or non HR games. With only 21 homers left to go, it’s easier just to concede he’ll get it done at some point this year. Let’s hope it’s quick. It’ll be less painful if it doesn’t drag on. Any legal attempt to keep him out of the game has fallen short. Only a major injury will derail him at this point. Get your voodoo dolls out & start sticking pins in those knees.

While we would never really wish an injury on anyone, we will be rooting against him getting the record. It’s really hard to pull for a guy who cheated. Being a despicable person makes it easier to root against him. Even if an asterisk is put next to his name in the record books, it won’t matter 10 or 20 years from now. That’s the shame. But is justice served if he’s not voted into the Hall? You could easily argue he would be in even without his “power surge” late in his career. Nevertheless, it's a painful journey with no good ending in sight.

We’re going to dub his quest as the “B Cubed” Tour:

The Barry Bonds Band-aid Tour

It’s just like pulling off a band-aid that you know is going to hurt. It kills while you pull it off and stings when you’re done. So, pull it fast Barry…

Season starts off with a thump… It’s a Royal Meche…

It’s a marathon, not a sprint. That’s the mantra this time of year – especially when your team stumbles out of the gate. Do you remember how your team performed last opening day or the ones before? Does it matter now or then? Nope.

So for all of you Yanks fans showering us with email about your beating of the mighty Rays, thanks. Take advantage of your fortunes while the skillet is hot. It’s starting to cool off already. We won’t even mention the 3 Yanks errors from yesterday. Whoops!

While Schill looked awful at times with his flat fastball, Pavano certainly didn’t make a case for himself. Schill has faced adversity and has overcome it. Pavano hasn’t even been able to just stay on the field since his arrival. Who’s going to have a better record & stats at year end? Is there really an argument over who you would pick in a heartbeat? Puhleease…

Regardless, it’s finally baseball season. Another 161 regular season games to go. So many possibilities, rising stars, surprising teams, and great stories to come. It’s all just starting to unfold. Even the KC’s, Rays, and all of the NL feel like they have a chance right now - however remote.

And yes, the ribbing has already begun… Enjoy the season folks!

Only 18 days and counting until the first square off…

Yanks are wondering where their rotation has gone…

Not that they had one of the better rotations coming in on paper, but a recent string of “setbacks” (not “injuries”) have pushed them to the back of the pack. With only a week before the season starts, panic is starting to creep in. While they have vast resources, they don’t have depth. And according to Cashman, “We are going to go with what we have”. If you are a Yankee fan, how are you not VERY concerned?

Your opening day starter is Carl Pavano (insert punchline here). Your best starter in Wang is out at least 3 weeks of April, and his replacement Karstens just hurt his elbow during a game and will be out “for a time”. Pettite has had back spasms, and Darrell Rasner (who?) is your new 5th starter.

The only known quantity you have is in Mussina. But he’s another year older at 39, with a history of injuries. So, you’re counting on Pavano (hee hee), Pettite (already hurt with back spasms & just switched back to the grind of the AL), Igawa who’s never pitched in the majors – or bright spotlight, and Rasner (an unproven rookie).

Granted the Yanks won’t need a #5 starter for the first couple of weeks, but who would you stack them against? More like who has a worse rotation…

Notes & Projections / Stats
Mussina: Career year at 38, numbers to be worse in 2007: 14-8, 4.50 Era

Pettite: Switch to AL, last yr stats 14-13, 4.20 Era: 12-14, 4.95 Era

Igawa: Never pitched in majors, not highly touted: 10-12, 5.35 Era

Wang: Hamstring changes everything, numbers worse: 16-10, 4.25 Era

Pavano: Hasn’t pitched in 21 months, ugly spring: 5-8, 5.60 Era

Karstens: And/or Rasner – similar unproven soph status: 6-7, 5.25 Era

Hughes: May see the phenom too early if Yanks fall back: 7-5, 4.50 Era


That is not a scary lineup no matter how you slice it. Unless they all pitch well, the Yanks may be looking up at the Jays and the Sox. That's right Yanks fans, it's already time to get out your Clemens shrines & start praying. It's your only shot...

Papelbon to Pen creates questions...

OK. Lets hope your Sox have something up their sleeve. At first glance, you get one of the top closers in the game and really shore up the pen. However, you create another important need and raise all sorts of questions…

#1) Who fills that gaping hole in the rotation? Papelbon was a potential 1a or 2 guy. Now you replace that level with a #5 starter like Snyder or Piniero? You just weakened arguably the best rotation in the majors. How dominating would Papelbon have been against the rest of the league’s #4 guys? Ouch.

#2) What happened to the medical diagnosis of better health if he’s moved to the rotation? Did something magically happen? Isn’t he at a higher risk of breaking down and not having a long career? Isn’t this irresponsible based on what they told us last year??? If he goes to this role, he doesn’t come out of it in 2007 or maybe ever. At least now you have Hansen and Bryce Cox as attractive bargaining chips.

How will they address the hole in the rotation? The candidates:
Kyle Snyder: Based on his spring you could make a case for it, but during last season he was only solid thru 4 innings and then fell apart.
Julian Tavares: More intriguing especially since he pitched well in that role down the stretch last year. But remember that he only went 5 or 6 innings.
Joel Piniero: Had the worst numbers in the AL last season but has looked OK this spring with an increase in velocity.
Kason Gabbard: Outstanding spring only giving up 5 hits in 10 IP. His promotion would require releasing someone from the pen.
Jon Lieber / Mark Hendrickson / other: Will cost you a Wily Mo and a few young arms. Who trades decent starting pitching in March/April? You can forget a 1a or #2.
Roger Clemens: Doesn’t seem as improbable now - does it?

The Sox may just use what they have internally and weather the storm until Lester is ready. The downside is that may be into June or even July. Even though he’s been pitching already, they won’t rush this kid back.

Are they better?
No. They fixed one need and created another. Unless they trade for a top line starter using Hansen and/or Bryce Cox, they are weaker. The best rotation in the majors is now just good. Lets hope the bullpen just became one of the best in the league.

Why? Why? Why?
Obviously none of the closer candidates separated themselves from the pack this spring and the price of acquiring a closer has been sky high. The questionable piece is that Papelbon will have a restricted workload in order to protect the shoulder. That would make you think this is a 2007 solution only - until Hansen or Cox are groomed. Schill may be gone next season and they'll need him back in the rotation. This doesn't make them better. Maybe they are buying time until the break. Hopefully it pays off and this skepticism will wear off...

The Real Deal...

Dice-K now has 3 major league (albeit spring training) starts under his belt. His latest start against the Pirates yielded one hit on 92 pitches in 5 2/3 IP. Now, the Pirates aren’t exactly the cream of the crop, but only 4 balls made it to the outfield. The surprising thing is how many were baffled by pitches and not just at the plate. Pirates hitters were watching the replay of their at bats on a laptop in the dugout and still could not figure out some of the pitches thrown - ON REPLAY and in SLOW MOTION.

Scouts will tell you he has thrown between 4 and 7 different pitches in an outing. The ones agreed upon are; fastball, curve, slider, and changeup. You’ll also hear four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, splitter, and the “shuto” (described as; kind of like a changeup and kind of like a curveball, and kind of like a split-finger) – not to be confused with the mythical “gyroball”. Regardless, you have hitters saying “I don’t know what that pitch was.” The weapon of the unknown is very powerful. There are going to be some ugly swings and feet in concrete this season.

His other big advantage is his ability to continually keep hitters off balance with his delivery. Apparently he has a stop in his delivery and changes his movements each time he comes to the set position. Guys will not be able to get into a rhythm at the plate which should baffle baserunners as well.

This guy is just different. He’s also got some nasty stuff with fastballs hitting 96, sliders in the mid 80’s, and offspeed stuff in the 70’s. He seems to be smart, savvy, and a cool customer. He’s had a media circus follow him since the age of 18. Pressure has never seemed to affect him in a negative way and he’s seemed to thrive on it.

That being said, lets not create a bust and send it to the Hall just yet. Even Bill James has him slated with a 13-8 record in 2007. But he has all the ingredients to be GREAT. He has a number of obstacles to overcome with the biggest being cultural. The switch from every 6 days to 5 days shouldn’t be an issue but it will be interesting to see how they handle his pitch counts. The biggest question is will he adjust to the MLB style of pitching or will the Sox adjust to the Japanese style.

Get ready Sox fans. This is going to be a fun ride!

No Deal for Schill? Big Mistake...

What is going through the minds of Red Sox management? After spending a windfall of cash in the off-season – and OVERPAYING for new acquisitions, what could they possibly be thinking?

The market prices have obviously spiked so the “value for performance” ratio is now out of whack. Pitching is absolutely ridiculous. Apparently if you have an Era under 7 you’re worth at least $10M per season. Look at some of the deals for these second and third tier pitchers:

Barry Zito – not a true ace by any stretch, but landed $18M per season
Gil Meche – $11M, won 7, 10, and 11 games past 3 seasons...
Ted Lilly – $10M, never won more than 12 games until last year (15), career era 4.60

Schilling is still a good pitcher – and that is the bottom line

He was dinged up last season and still managed 15 wins and a sub 4 Era in the AL. Only 10 or so healthy players had better numbers. Hello Red Sox management – HELLO - that number is 10. If reasonably healthy, shouldn’t he be paid like a top 10 pitcher? What is that value in this market? Probably $18M+ - and yes he is still better than Zito (at least for another year or two)

The Value of Schilling:

He’s not asking for a raise or even fair market value. He wants to pitch in Boston at his current salary. In the current marketplace, he’s not trying to take advantage of the team when most players would. He gets it. He’s a gritty big game pitcher. He’s a great mentor for your young pitching staff. He’s still a lighting rod for the media. He was your best pitcher last season. He’s the model other athletes (the "money hungry" ones) should be emulating. You want him on your team. HE CAN STILL PITCH AT A HIGH LEVEL.

WHERE IS THE DOWNSIDE???


You just overpaid for a guy with a health risk in JD Drew, but you won’t pay below market value for a guy who is still viable? Pitching has never been this much of a commodity. This is the same group willing to pay Clemens $20M for half a season. Even if he falters you’re still going to get better numbers than most of the guys listed above – for the same money.

Let's face it, the Sox will not get equal value for $13M. Who do you REPLACE him with? No one in the farm system will be that good in 2008 (not that they can count on at this point anyway). Lucchino stated the door isn't closed and that they will revisit in the offseason. Nice to know it will be a one way conversation - you DONKEY. Would you come back if you were Schill? Not even at market value.

This team has the money to get this deal done without even blinking. Pitching is at the pinnacle of importance and cost. Do they have a lock on signing Johan Santana at $25M per season and need to save their pennies? Don't hold your breath. This is probably the worst faux-pas of the new ownership. Just awful.

They really screwed the pooch on this one. Our only recourse is to tell them how pissed off we are. So, enjoy Schill while he's here, you won't see him in 2008. Its times like these when those outrageous ticket prices have that extra "sting" to them.

The Steroid Shuffle

How do we make sense of the steroid effect on baseball? Well, the HOF voters have apparently spoken volumes by shunning Mark McGuire. The message is that even without proof the mere appearance of involvement with steroids will keep you out of the Hall.

That’s at first glance however. McGuire has a career .263 BA with only 1,626 hits. It’s his gaudy HR’s (583) that give him consideration for the Hall. Should residing in the top ten HR hitters of all time automatically get you in? You could make a case that he shouldn’t get in. This same argument will be coming for Sosa and Palmeiro soon.

If you ask a number of sportswriters (HOF voters) why they didn’t vote for McGuire, guarantee that this first year is “punishment” for his performance in front of Congress. Instead of giving the guy some credit for trying to do the right thing (and not incriminate himself), they punished him. Remember too that there is no proof, only speculation.

That being said, it’s fairly obvious he had some “help” in the form of steroids and performance enhancing drugs. The argument is when and how much did it help. We’ll never know the answer to those questions. He did hit 49 HR’s in his first full season back in 1987, but his real power surge was between 1996 thru 1999. You can make an educated guess about his stats, but what do you do with them?

How do we view the rest of the players in the steroid era (which will be how the 90’s and early 2000’s will be named)? Isn’t it reasonable to assume that pitchers had the same advantage? By all accounts, more than 50% of players were using some type of enhancement during this stretch. You hate to give Canseco any type of credit, but it appears he was dead on in his book. There was never any punishment while coaches, management, and MLB all turned a blind eye. In that type of environment where performance equals dollars it’s a wonder most athletes weren’t using. While it certainly is not a valid excuse, this was the world they were living in. The ultimate question is how to quantify stats and achievements from this era. If a pitcher and batter are both using, does that negate the effect? So even if you were able to narrow down the who and when it’s still a baffling dilemma.

The Hall Effect…

The HOF voters are an odd bunch. Each has his own view of what is proper and what characteristics have more weight than others. Some change their minds about voting for the same player. There are no standards or criteria, but there are biases and personality conflicts that get in the way. It’s all subjective. Players who were downright nasty to reporters (and everyone else) also seem to get penalized. How else would you explain Albert Belle only getting less than 20% of the vote, while a player like Jim Rice (similar #’s with 500 more at bats) get over 60%? Now that the steroid era has been “exposed” do we now hold players before this era to the higher standard of stats within it? Do we discount the stats from the players from this era?

The good aspect is that players will be judged on an individual basis. Don’t expect the “steroid blanket” to affect all players in the same way. You’d hope that Palmeiro would be treated more harshly than others. He lied to Congress and threw a teammate under the bus after testing positive. Giambi admitted to taking them to a grand jury. Sheffield and Bonds both used the “I didn’t know what I was taking” defense. Bonds also tested positive for amphetamines in 2006 and said he got them from a teammate’s locker. See a pattern here?

By the way, did you miss the whole “players only get reported for a second amphetamines fail” thing?

Pete Rose bet on baseball, but he didn’t cheat. Why is that worse? Anyone testing positive for steroids or enhancers should also be banned from the Hall, no? How about failing the test twice and you’re out? Now that’s a good deterrent and satisfies the “false positive” crap.

Where does this leave us?

Unfortunately in a precarious position. As with many MLB awards there are inherent flaws and therefore snubs. Now we’ve been thrown the steroid curveball to further muddy the waters.

We can’t control any of it which is the most frustrating part. We are at the mercy of the bitter, jaded, cynical, overbearing, and homers called sportswriters. At least that’s what they are when things don’t fit our viewpoint. That will never change, and neither will the current system.

The only question is whether anyone associated with steroids will ever get into the Hall. Will the most prolific HR hitter ever not get in? A few in the top ten? We’ll see. Let’s just hope karma has a hand in it.

The Yanks drop their Unit...

The Randy Johnson era has apparently ended in NY. While his trade request was never “official” it’s clear that he wanted out of the spotlight of NY and back to the seclusion of Arizona and the weak NL lineups.

It’s a great move for the Unit. At 44 and coming off another surgery, the spirit may be willing but the body isn’t listening. He should have a good year against the NL and the climate in Arizona certainly won’t hurt especially in April and May. His numbers will certainly improve over 2006 if he stays somewhat healthy.

But is this a good move for the Yanks? With no viable replacement it’s a big NO. This is the second starter they’ve dealt in a very thin market. While they may have received some value in minor league prospects, they still traded away 2 proven arms for unproven commodities.

Are the Yanks in a mini rebuilding stage? It appears so because these deals don’t make sense in the short term. Did they not learn anything from the Sox trading Arroyo last season? At least the Sox appeared to have an “abundance” of pitching at the time.

The Yanks have 3 solid starters they can count on barring any injuries. Kei Igawa is still a question mark but should end up as a stable number 4 or 5 guy. They can’t be seriously considering getting much out of Pavano. That leaves Philip Hughes being rushed out of the minors. They don’t have an ace. Not much of a game plan. The Yanks must already have a tentative agreement with Clemens. That would explain some things. However, he probably won’t pitch until mid June. That also puts a ton of pressure on Mussina, Pettitte, and Wang to perform above expectations.


Risky Business:

So what’s the plan? Survive until June and count on their offense to carry them. With a new stockpile of minor league talent, they have leverage at the trade deadline. But who is going to trade a top of the line starter? At best you’ll find a fringe #3 guy and that doesn’t push you over the top.

Questions, questions…

Wang – should be fine, putting up similar numbers to last season
Mussina – he’s older and his numbers certainly won’t be better
Pettitte – don’t expect improvement over NL era of 4.20
Igawa – pray that you didn’t get Irabu revisited
Pavano – how much can you expect from a guy who hasn’t pitched in 2 years?
Clemens – are 20 games better than 30 from the Unit? Will he even pitch?
Hughes – will he be rushed? How effective will he be?

That’s just plain ugly. They’re also counting on no injuries. On paper, the bullpen is much improved but how effective will they be if they are overworked?

The Yanks will certainly be competitive in 2007, but will it be too late? Their offense needs to be prolific once again. Unless something drastic changes, they’ll be good but fall short. Expect to be in the rear view mirror for the season…

Yanks are shoring up their rotation...

The Yanks finally pulled the trigger on the poor man’s Matsuzaka. Lefty Kei Igawa reportedly signs a 5 year deal worth $20M before incentives. That’s on top of a posting bid of $26M which now seems inexpensive compared to what the Sox paid. Noting the market for pitching is scarce, the Yanks still get a great deal. The luxury tax hit is only $4M, and his actual pricetag is just over $9M. However, you get what you pay for. Scouting reports project him to be a #4 or #5 starter at best. So the Yanks are essentially gambling $9M per season for a #4 guy. Based on Gil Meche or Ted Lilly dollars, they essentially get similar talent for a couple million less per season. With their resources, there isn’t much of a downside. We’ll find out how he reacts to the pressures of NY. He hasn’t had the same exposure and media frenzy as Matsuzaka.

The Yanks also inked Pettite (based on passing a physical) for a one year $16M deal. At 35, he’s not the same pitcher who left the AL back in 2003. He struggled through injuries in 2004 (15 games / 3.90 ERA), but had a nice bounce back year in 2005 (ERA of 2.39 was his best since 2002).

But 2006 was also a struggle with a 14-13 record, 4.20 ERA, 27 HR’s, with 238 hits in 214 innings. Not the greatest pedigree when switching back to the AL. The Yanks will hope he’s a solid #3, but don’t count on his numbers improving over last season.

The probable rotation and projections:

Wang: 18-5, 3.40 ERA
Mussina: 13-10, 4.50 ERA
Pettite: 12-12, 4.90 ERA
Johnson: 14-11, 4.85 ERA
Igawa: 7-9, 5.50 ERA
Hughes: 3-3, 3.90 ERA

Wang had a terrific 2006 and will be the staff’s anchor. He still has a way to go to become a true #1 guy. His 233 hits in 218 innings are far from being dominant, and his 52 BB compared with his 76 K’s are equally average. At 27, he has the potential to get better. He should improve on his 3.63 ERA in 2007.

Mussina had a career year in 2006 and carried the team on his back last season. His 3.51 ERA was outstanding, but at 38 don’t expect him to duplicate it. The oft injured pitcher pitched in 32 games, his most since 2002. Expect another visit from the injury bug in 2007.

Johnson will be 44 in 2007 and really showed his age in 2006. His ERA of 5.00 was not reflected on his record of 17-11. He was inconsistent all of last season. He didn’t finish well either, giving up 5 runs a game in his last 4 including the playoffs. With off season back surgery, he’ll struggle to stay healthy once again.

Carl Pavano is the ultimate bust. The only thing you can count on is another injury. Poor bastard. However, Yanks management has planned to not have him available, so anything you may get is gravy. But remember that the gravy has lumps.

Philip Hughes is apparently a rising star on the horizon. He went 10-3 with a 2.25 ERA in AA Trenton. He’ll need more seasoning, having pitched only 116 innings, but he may contribute late in 2007.

Will Roger Clemens pitch in 2007? If so, his buddy Pettite will make a strong push to get it done. Although Houston has some dough to spend with Pettite and Bagwell (including insurance claim) off the books. We’ll see if he will choose “loyalty” (perks at home) over more dollars. The wildcard is Boston if they have an injury in June/July.

Overall the Yanks have a fairly solid rotation. Wang should be terrific once again. The big question revolves around the health of the geriatrics. Johnson, Mussina, and Pettite are all on the back 9 of their careers with history of injuries. Igawa is an unknown and hasn’t faced the pressure and media scrutiny of NY. Pavano is like a “box of chocolates” at this point. Still, if this rotation stays somewhat healthy, they should produce over 70 wins especially with a potent offense. Expect another close race in 2007.

Sox land the beast from the East!!!

Welcome to Boston Daisuke!!!

The Sox landed what could be their franchise player. In the process, they also defeated the mighty Scott Boras. That’s almost as satisfying as landing Matsuzaka.

DOWN GOES BORAS! DOWN GOES BORAS!

The Sox front office was masterful in their negotiations. They held their ground and stuck with their original offer. Boras, the baseball anti-christ, played his only hand which was to not negotiate and to threaten to bring his client back to Japan. However, Seibu was in financial trouble and supposedly told Matsuzaka they would not be posting him in 2007, effectively making him wait two more seasons to be a free agent. Add in the pressure of family, friends, and fans back home, it was probably an easy choice for Matsuzaka. Whether he told Boras to make the deal is something we’ll never know, but it’s most likely what transpired.

Will he be the top of rotation guy here like he was in Japan? To take a page from Parcells, let’s not anoint him just yet. However, all the scouting reports are more than glowing, and Craig Shipley (Sox scout) watched him pitch every game last season. The fact that they were willing to pony up $51M speaks volumes.

It is a gamble, especially since he’s never thrown a pitch in the majors. But you have to figure that a significant part of that posting price will be recovered from new revenue sources. All of Japan will be watching (and buying #18 merchandise) when the season starts. His first pitch in the majors will be against Ichiro, and he will face Matsui a number of times each season. When you factor in the posting price with salary, he’s still less than Jason Schmidt / Mike Mussina money at a little over $17M per year. His annual salary (and luxury tax impact) is only $8.7M, which is less than Gil Meche, Ted Lilly, and even Matt Clement. He’s going to be good in the majors, and he’s still worth the money even if he only becomes your #2 guy. If he meets his incentives, its money well spent and averages only $1.3M per season. So, how much of a gamble are they really taking?

The Sox really pulled this one off. Has the front office redeemed itself? That will be determined on the field, but things look promising.

Will Boston be the land of the Rising Gun?

With only hours to go before the deadline, we're hearing all sorts of chatter. From the talks being dead to the Sox upping the ante and making a substantive offer, what do you pay attention to?

It's all been about posturing to this point in the "negotiations". Negotiations? With the Sox submitting a reported $7-$8M per year offer, Boras has simply not countered. He's only stated in a press conference that his player is worth in the neighborhood of $100M over 5 or 6 years. He feels that Matsuzaka should be paid like a top 5 MLB experienced starter. But at $16M+ a season, he's been smoking some strong stuff. Include the posting price of $51M, his annual salary would equal $25M per season. Right. Que up Aerosmith's Dream On...

The Scott Boras angle:

Top 5 pitching talent
Worth $16M+ per season
Posting pricetag of $51M should not be a factor
Ichiro was MVP caliber his first season and is still underpaid
No counteroffer - at least until things get very tense
Keep Matsuzaka away from potential pressures - home, fans, Seibu & the press
Provide favorable "contract info" only to Matsuzaka
He cares about the almighty dollar only, he has no conscience
No thought regarding the impact on the player
He can blame the posting system as being flawed

The Sox angle:

He's an unproven MLB talent
There are cases of failure (see Irabu, aka the Fat Toad)
Posting pricetag is absolutely part of the deal
They put the "full court press" on this guy - over bidding, Lucchino trip to Japan
Guarantee a certain amount, the rest in incentives (unproven commodity)
Boras has less leverage - no other teams are bidding
Matsuzaka said "sayonara" to Seibu and Japanese fans
Returning to Japan because of greed will not endear him to the fans
Seibu needs cash to stay solvent and competitive
"Honor" is a driving force for both Matsuzaka and Seibu
Last minute trip to meet Boras saves face for future Japanese player deals


Who's going to blink first?

Every party wants to get this deal done, but on their own terms. Whoever has the most to lose will blink first. That will probably be Matsuzaka. Why?

It's been his dream to play in the majors. He's said his farewell to the fans of Japan and Seibu. He will lose face if he returns to Seibu. The Japanese fans will take exception to him being greedy, Seibu will struggle financially, and may even be "forced" to cut his salary. It would be very ugly for him to return. In the end, he may need to tell Boras to accept a reasonable offer.

The Sox are sitting in an interesting position. They positioned themselves to be the good guys by posting a huge amount, sending Lucchino to Japan, and now upping the ante in person at Boras's doorstep. So if the deal falls thru, Boras is the bad guy and Matsuzaka is either naive or greedy. Oh yeah, they also lose a potential top of the rotation starter. But with Lester apparently healthy, they may be able to push the need for a starter to 2008 after Schill is retired. There's always the Clemens angle, but he may decide to join Pettite in NY.

Scott Boras has nothing to lose. He doesn't care about anything other than his commission. While he has less leverage than normal, he still has enough. He knows that he can squeeze more money out of this in another year and even more after two when Matsuzaka is a true free agent. He also has "the posting system needs to be changed" out, to which he can become the "champion" of changing it. What the Sox also fear is that Boras is shielding his client from what is really going on. Does he know that Boras has not made a counter offer? Has Boras been saying the Sox offer is an insult? That's why the Sox brass have flown to LA in the hopes of speaking to Matsuzaka in person during negotiations. They hope his friends have been on the internet and are calling him as well.

Will he pitch in Boston in 2007?

At age 26, growing up within Japanese culture, conventional wisdom would indicate Matsuzaka's willingness to make a reasonable deal. It's likely the Sox have offered a $10-$11M annual deal which dwarfs his current $3M deal. Has Boras warped his thinking? Is he getting good or bad advice from somewhere else? We should know by tomorrow if Matsuzaka & Boras return to Boston for a physical.

We're guessing he'll be on the mound in Fenway the second week of Apr. You can bet that Sushi will make it's way as well, so bring your chopsticks...

Sox ink Drew and Lugo...

The winter meetings finally bear some fruit, and the Nation still retains our in-house "fruit" Manny. These two signings give the Sox a significant upgrade over last year.

If you say the Sox overpaid for both players, you're 100% correct. Neither will "live up to" their contract amount. Welcome to free agency in 2006. If you look at all the big free agent deals being signed, not many players will be worth their pricetag. You're going to see a number of high priced and mediocre pitching available at trading deadlines in the years to come. And you thought Matt Clement was expensive...


JD Drew

Sox get a significant upgrade in RF. He'll bring a .285 BA, 20+ HR, 100+ RBI, and .390+ OBP. He's a solid defender and now provides protection for Manny batting in the 5 spot. He makes a patient lineup even more patient, driving the pitch count even higher.

His rumored downside is that he's injury prone and has no drive. Let's take a look at his injuries:
2002 - 15 day DL (knee)
2003 - offseason surgery - started playing Apr 20th (knee), 15 day DL (oblique)
2004 - 8 games (neck/hamstring)
2005 - 5 games (knee), hit by pitch (broken wrist) in July - missed rest of season
2006 - 5 games (shoulder/quad)

Other than a broken wrist in 2005 his injuries are really minor. Yes, his career high is 146 games but that was also last season. In 2006 0nly 3 Sox players had more than 150 games played, and in 2005 only 4 (Damon had 148). Not so eye popping now, eh?

In terms of his drive and heart, who knows. There are sportswriters that don't like him and others like Gammons who praise him. But remember that he carried the offensive burden by himself in LA and the pressure that went with it. Now he's a #5 hitter with two of the best offensive forces in the majors hitting in front of him. Pressure is gone baby. He should thrive in Boston.

The other nagging question out there is why didn't they sign Damon last year. Should the Sox have known the market would be this pricey? Probably. So, is Drew worth the extra $2M per season? Probably not especially since Damon is a good leadoff man and he's now with your rival. But, the bottom line is that they landed the best player available. Just don't make the mistake of judging him on salary or if Damon is the better option. He's a solid productive player. Blame Theo for the faux pas, not him.


Julio Lugo

Theo's infatuation finally made it here. He's a good shortstop but have you ever understood the attraction? He's speedy and is a decent leadoff guy that will bring you a .275 BA, 10 HR, and 40 RBI. Apparently he's a high energy and good clubhouse guy as well. His numbers may also increase slightly with this lineup. However, expect to get about 20 errors out of him. Maybe you can attribute that to getting to more balls, but he's a still drop defensively over Gonzalez. Offensively he's an upgrade but mostly in consistency and batting average. At times, Gonzalez was a sure out last season. Overall they're better offensively and baserunning, but took a hit defensively. It looks pretty even on the surface, but management seems to be very high on him. They're definitely a better club with him despite the $9M pricetag.


The Sox still have some work to do, but their lineup is in good shape right now. Here's what you'll see on opening day if nothing changes:

Lugo
Crisp
Ortiz
Ramirez
Drew
Tech
Lowell
Youkilis
Pedroia

Don't forget about Wily Mo, Hinske, and Cora...

Next up: Pitching, pitching, pitching...

To trade Manny, or not to trade Manny...

Well the Manny gate rumors have reared their ugly head once again. With the recent outlandish free agent signing $'s, Manny's contract is now seen as a bargain. That's scary. His contract has seemingly been the albatross in striking any trade deals, even as recent as last season. What a difference a year makes. MLB insiders also seem to think this trend of spending will continue in the near future making his contract #'s even more tradeable.

The debate of whether to keep him or trade him will rage on. It's been rumored that he made be traded as early as Saturday (when they will supposedly sign JD Drew).

Why Should they trade Manny?

1) His flighty attitude.
2) He seemingly quit on his teammates at the end of last season.
3) He's become such a distraction that he affects team chemistry.
4) The Manny being Manny episodes are not a matter of if, but when.
5) His production may start to slip in the next couple of seasons.
6) His trade value may not ever be higher, and a younger viable option is available.

Why should they keep him?

1) You can't replace his production or talent for hitting (Andruw Jones is not the same threat or producer).
2) David Ortiz's walks will increase and his production will decrease. You're losing the equivalent of 1.25 players.
3) You won't get equal value in return, and teams (like the Dodgers) are claiming the pricetag is too high.
4) He's a 10-5 guy and can veto any trade - should they expend time & energy in the first place? He may require additional terms (exercise option & possible extension years) before waiving his no-trade. He also may just change his mind about it daily.
5) Just to piss off local sports writers like Shaughnessy.

The question is, does management think his antics outweigh his production. It's clear his teammates were frustrated with him at the end of last season, but to the point they don't want him back? We'll never really know. The only measuring stick will be what kind of deal they pull off. If he isn't traded, that most likely means they weren't willing to part with him for less than full value, and he's not the "cancer" some portray him to be.

Sportwriters like Shaughnessy don't like Manny, so when reading their articles bear that in mind. Manny doesn't speak to the media so there is no dispute or point of view to what's written either. Shaughnessy would have you believe Manny doesn't want to be here (another season of trade rumors), he gave up on his teammates and he gave up on YOU, the fan. What a load of crap. It makes for a good article in November, but do you really buy it? What he's actually doing is making it easier for the Sox brass to unload him for less than fair value - in the eyes of the fan.

There is only 1 consideration here if you're Theo. Will Manny's antics disrupt the clubhouse to the point of derailing the team? Will his "phantom" injuries return at a critical point of the season?

A) If no, then keep him unless you're blown away by an offer. His option year is also now a bargain.
B) If yes, how much under fair value are you willing to take?

From a fan's perspective, do you really care about the Manny being Manny episodes? It's not like you work with the guy directly. You're not paying his salary. What it really comes down to is his production and ability to help the team win. You may only get 140 games out of him, but at the end of the day is there a better option?

Unless they get some stud pitching in return, they're nuts if they trade him. That's two more seasons of Manny coming your way...

Hot Stove - The Rotation...

Scary, but it’s that time already. The Sox have more holes to fill this offseason than they’ve had in a while. Payroll sits around $100M right now, and the new luxury tax number has risen to $148M. Where will they fit in? It’s probably safe to assume $20M will go towards starting pitching. Let’s delve right in to what the Sox are looking at:

Starters:

1) Beckett
2) Schilling
3) Papelbon
4) Wake
5) ???

Not such a bad rotation as it stands. It’s probably good enough to get to the playoffs by adding a solid #5. Let’s also assume that Lester doesn’t help in 2007. Also remember that Schill posted the best Sox starters ERA last season which was just under 4…

Potentials:

Daisuke Matsuzaka – the prize of the free agents. Only 26, his 17-5 record, 2.13 ERA, and 200K in 186 IP is impressive. Even though the Sox won the bidding, they still need to negotiate length & dollars per season.

Impact: Hasn’t done it with MLB players yet, but all the scouts think he’s the real deal.
Cost: $51M (doesn’t affect payroll #’s). Boras reportedly asking $16M per year.
Analysis: Best option. Don’t give up any prospects, open new revenue stream overseas, and keep away from competition - especially Yanks. $51M doesn’t count against the cap…


Adam Eaton – 28, injured during spring training (surgery on finger), didn’t pitch until July. Went 7-4 with a 5.12 ERA, after spending 6 seasons with the Padres.

Impact: End of rotation guy, NL ERA of low 4’s.
Cost: $4.7 last year, could be a “cheap” option at $6M - $7M
Analysis: Only 28, but the transition to the AL coupled with a finger injury inflated his ERA. He’s also never pitched 200 innings, or won more than 11 games. Apparently Theo has met with him already. Not sure what he sees here. Don’t we have a similar guy on the farm already?


Gil Meche – 28, was 11-8, 4.48 Era with Seattle. With a thin market, his $3.7M salary should at least double.

Impact: Middle of rotation guy, can lock up for a few years. Schill will be gone in 08, might fit in nicely behind Beckett, Papelbon, and Lester.
Cost: $8M+
Analysis: He’s been pitching in the AL so no “adjustment” will happen. Downside – never pitched 200 innings, only won 15 games once. Only a 4 or 5 guy at best. He’s still young and may be the only “bargain” out there.


Vincente Padilla – 29, was 15-10, 4.50 ERA with Texas, career 4.06 ERA. Reportedly looking for $10M per season. Made the transition back to AL improving on his 4.71 from Philly. Appears to have overcome injuries in 2004 & 2005.

Impact: Could be a solid # 3. There aren’t many 15 game winners that fall out of the sky, especially within the AL.
Cost: $10M+
Analysis: May become too expensive after bidding starts. How much do you want to pay for a #3? See: Matt Clement…





National League


Tom Glavine – is a homecoming in the cards? He’s reportedly torn between the Mets and Braves. His 15-7 record went along with 3.82 ERA. At 40, it makes little sense for him to switch to the AL. He’ll probably cost around $11- $12M.

Woody Williams – went 12-5 with a 3.65 era in 145 innings. At 40, he’s had a steady decline in innings every season since 2003. Might be a good option in the pen however.

Mark Mulder – had season ending surgery (rotator cuff), this guy may have lost it, but has still been mentioned in rumors… Went 6-7 with a 7+ ERA with the Cards. Yikes.


Longshot Department

Roger Clemens – were you tired of the back and forth stories last season? Well, hang on because here they come again. He’s the master at extracting the most dollars he can. Houston has probably had its fill, but he’ll pit the Sox vs. Yanks, with the Rangers a distant third once again. Odds are he’d join the Sox, but at a price the Sox would pay? His NL numbers will certainly jump. Is he a legit #2 in the AL now? Remember too that he broke down only playing a few months.

Jason Schmidt – at 33, he’s not any getting better especially if he switches to the AL. Someone will overpay to the tune of $13- $14M. Probably Houston because they just unloaded a ton of payroll.

Barry Zito – at 28, he’s proven to be durable. His ERA of 3.83 is probably close to what you can expect going forward. A true #1 in the NL, he’s not in the AL. Do you start him in a decisive playoff game? Although he was top 10 in ERA, he’s not a top 10 pitcher. But, he’ll get paid like he is, similar to the $13 - $14M of Schmidt. A left handed flyball pitcher at Fenway spells disaster. Mets are probably the best fit.

Jake Peavy – only 25, he dominated the prior 2 seasons. His ERA ballooned to over 4 from a sub 3 last season. He did have a good Sept with a 2.43 ERA, but did not perform well in the playoffs. This rumor popped up last season, but why would SD part with a 25 year old starter? Who do the Sox give up? Don’t hold your breath…

Ted Lilly – 30, this Sox killer will be commanding big dollars ($11-$12M?). His 4.31 era was in the top 20 in the AL. Someone will overpay, but not the Sox. He’s probably a fringe 3 guy at best. Still, rumors persist that Theo is interested…


In the Clubhouse / On the farm…

Jon Lester – let’s just hope this kid is OK. Treatment and recovery is 6-8 months (Feb – Apr timeframe). That’s when we find out just if he’s healthy or not. He’ll be unable to even eat properly or train until then. Even if he does pitch in 07, he probably won’t be back at his 2006 form.

Julian Tavares – pitched very well in the rotation going 3-0 in his last 5 starts, giving up more than 2 runs (3 & 4) only in two of his starts. He’ll probably start in the pen and be a backup plan for the rotation.

Hansack/Gabbard/Alvarez/Pauley/Snyder/J. Johnson/DiNardo – hopefully someone from this heap will have a great spring. Some of these guys showed some poise after being thrown in the fire. Their best bet is that someone will stand out by June.


Coming next, The Pen…